India’s economy is facing major challenges and stress in the post covid world. Although there are apologists of the economy that carp on its revival, and there are some improvements to the economy, the general consensus is that India’s economy has not yet recovered to pre-covid levels. In fact, the RBI in a recent article stated that it could take India as long as 12 years to recover to its pre-covid levels of economic growth and stability. Combined with economic indicators that show unemployment at around 9 per, youth unemployment at over 30 per cent in some states, inflation on the rise, and a host of other factors, the short term prospects of the Indian economy (12 months) look bleak. Unfortunately, the middle term prospects (12-24 months ) look even bleaker.
The Indian economy today is a mixed bag. It alternates between Chaos, Confusion and Control. Chaos has always been there in the Indian economy. It is part of the very nature of India and its economic progress, its diverse populations, cultures, languages and customs. As Arundathi Roy says so aptly, “India lives in several centuries at the same time”. Confusion and Control also have always been part of our ethos. However, in the mix of these three elements India’s economy has actually shone over the centuries when Chaos was a major player and Controls of the economy were at minimalistic levels.
So Chaos with the least control is the best that has happened to the Indian economy in the past. If that surprises you, read on!
Why Chaos Is Good
Chaos in our economic activity has been India’s strength. This is unique to India and India alone. Our entire industry, unorganised sector, and businesses work in an atmosphere of chaos that looks out of place in the rest of the world. Don’t get me wrong, we are talking of chaos in the economy, not individuals or companies or organisations. They are well organised, but they all work in a chaotic atmosphere and that is India’s actual success over centuries! As Sadhguru said, “India lives in organic chaos and that is its strength”. But for those of you who are sceptical, India has always worked best among chaos! The growth of the Indian private sector has been totally independent of any control (apart from a few statutory ones) and at most times despite controls which have been archaic (like the outdated labour laws). And there is historical data for this.
Prior to British colonisation, India was the richest country in the world. The domineering factor was Chaos. And by chaos, I mean economic chaos. Everything was de-centralised. Every state, region, municipality and village had their own rules and economic activity at this level was totally different, even from small region to region. If you look at it from today’s perspective, it was chaos with minimal central control apart from tax receipts and a few other areas. As long as rulers got their money, they didn’t care about the actual systems in place. This was even the case with the great empires and dynasties from Shah Jahan, Akbar, the Gupta, and before. But it made us the richest country in the world and a place that European explorers dreamed of reaching. They even named countries after us (like the West Indies) when they landed in the wrong place.
This brings us to the point that for the economy, Chaos is good. Control is bad.
Why Control Is Bad
The problem with control is that it stifles innovativeness and growth to a large extent. In the 21st century, everyone accepts that some controls are important and cannot be compromised. But when it comes to the economy, you cannot control most aspects of it when it comes to most sectors and apart from regulatory and minimum compliances, most should be left free. But this is anathema to most Government and Statutory authorities. In spite of repeated examples of how controls have ruined economies worldwide and even created major inefficiencies in our system, they are still the favourite medium for most Governments.
If you look at India, 250 years of British colonisation with controls to prevent Indian industries from going forward made us from the richest to among the poorest in the world. After independence, the 5 year plans created an entire segment of inefficient public sector conglomerates that bled the economy. Bank nationalism led to enormous non-performing assets which are estimated at over 6 lakh crore, though no one really knows the exact number. Then at the beginning of the 21st century, the nature of controls changed. Demonetisation negatively impacted an enormous number of businesses, particularly in the unorganised sector which was dependent on cash, and was chaotic, but also provided huge opportunities to many.
GST is badly implemented and is creating confusion. And digital payments though convenient are costly. Compliances have become draconic and while compliance is important, they have to be suited to the Indian Psyche which responds well to carrot-based rather than stick based systems.
Initiatives like ‘Make in India’ seem to take a book out of how China which is a highly controlled economy has developed. China has transformed its industries amazingly and made a major impact on the world. But India and China are like the North and South Pole. The Chinese have a herd mentality. Indians are totally individualistic and have been so from the beginning. We cannot afford controls as our economy has grown the best during minimal controls and in chaos.
The growth of the software industry is one such example, in that it grew during a time that no control over it. Government authorities did not really know about software and they understood it much later on. The story goes that even a former Chief Minister in the 1990s had to be educated multiple times that computer hardware was not pipes and bolts. This was when the software was a billion-dollar business
Where We Stand Today
Covid has made everything different. From a social, employment, and general outlook it has severely impacted our economy. From the perspective of creating chaos, it has been the best thing that has happed for our businesses and the economy in general. Why?
The chaos that covid has created has informally removed a lot of the controls that have so restricted the economy. The problems faced by businesses and enterprises remain and have even multiplied. But our own history has taught us that most people, particularly in the informal and unorganised sector find the solutions. And they are the key. Our unorganised sector creates 60 per cent of the jobs. They create the entire framework we live on. This is particularly true in India as it is a service-based economy with over 52 per cent of services contributing to GDP. And services have grown without any controls despite the confusion about what policy should be made.
The effort for India to create a strong manufacturing base with initiatives like ‘Make in India’ is probably doomed from the start. India’s manufacturing sector has declined from 23 per cent of GDP during independence to around 20 per cent today. In 75 years, if our ability to manufacture has declined, by what logic will it go up in the future? The future lies in services, but that is a chaotic area as the field is diverse with new offerings coming out regularly. But it is an area that is the future and which many do not like as controls and regulations are much harder due to greater international connectivity and the use of technology to create opportunities. The faster we accept Henry Adams said that “Chaos is a law of nature, Order is a dream of man”, we will move forward much faster in our economy and at an individual level.
What Is The Future And How Does One Prepare For It
We can only look at a future timeline of around 24 months as that is all one can plan for. The challenges that the Indian economy will face will probably accelerate and it will be more and more chaotic as India and the rest of the world feel the effects of the recessions that the US and European countries seem to be heading for. The authorities will have their hands full to deal with social and political challenges. Statutory authorities will deal with inflation, interest rates, and so on. The rest will be chaos. And that is where the opportunity lies. Both for survival and Advancement
One of the most admired institutions in the Army because of their discipline and deservedly so. So let us take the example of another army, the German army in world war 2 that conquered almost the whole of Europe during a period of total chaos. They were disciplined, but so were other armies. They were able to make amazing progress because of a simple principle of “Auftragstaktik”. Simply translated, this means fulfilling your objective without interference.
This allowed local commanders to make amazing gains. This continued for almost 3 years until Hitler made ‘control’ decisions of interfering in all plans personally. That was their end.
The principle of Auftragstaktik is great for our economy in the present covid times both from a macro and individualistic level. Slightly adapting it would be to fulfil one’s objectives without bothering about interference. From an economic perspective, it could be the revival of the private sector that see opportunities in the chaos that covid has created. From an individualistic perspective, it could be the objective of keeping one in survival mode as you scout for the opportunity. But any which way, this Tharoor like word of Auftragstaktik is perhaps the only light in the tunnel we have as we grapple with the aftereffects of the pandemic.
VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.
Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.
The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.
“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.
“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”
Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.
The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.
The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.
Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.
More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.
Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.
“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.
Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.
“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.
Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.
Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.
Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”
“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.
Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?
Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.
Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.
Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.
Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?
Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.
Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.
Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.
Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?
Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.
Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.
Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.
The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.
He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.
The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.
Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”
The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.
Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
