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Inflation holds at 18-year high in Canada as pressure mounts to raise rates – Financial Post

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Kevin Carmichael: Gasoline and shelter costs continue to stoke the most serious bout of inflation in three decades

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 4.7 per cent in November from a year earlier, matching October’s surge, as gasoline and shelter costs continued to stoke the most serious bout of inflation in three decades.

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At least the CPI, which the Bank of Canada uses to guide its interest-rate policy, stopped rising. Year-over-year increases exceeded the top end of the central bank’s comfort zone of one per cent to three per cent in April, and accelerated monthly until November. Inflation touched 4.7 per cent in February 2003, but otherwise upward price pressures haven’t been this strong since 1991.

The persistence of inflation has surprised Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem, who began the year determined to push the jobless rate back to pre-pandemic levels of around 5.5 per cent. That target now appears out of reach, as pressure is mounting to raise interest rates before cost pressures emanating from supply disruptions turn into an inflationary spiral.

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“While Canada’s economic recovery is still incomplete and uneven, it’s sufficiently entrenched that the bank should start to remove some of its emergency support in the first quarter of 2022,” Stephen Tapp, chief economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and a former staffer at the central bank, said in an email. “In the near term, profitability will be squeezed, and if businesses pass cost increases onto their consumers, it’ll prolong pressures on (expected) inflation and wages.”

While this release alone may not advance the case for rate hikes, the bigger picture continues to do so — loudly

Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal

Gasoline prices were about 44 per cent higher than in November 2020, reflecting the volatility of energy markets over the past year. If energy is subtracted from Statistics Canada’s basket of widely purchased goods and services, the CPI rose 3.3 per cent, a less alarming rate of change, but still outside the central bank’s comfort zone.

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Shelter costs increased 4.8 per cent and food rose 4.4 per cent from a year earlier. The strain on day-to-day costs was somewhat offset by an 18 per cent drop in the cost of mobile plans. Statistics Canada said telecommunications offered a range of promotions last month, creating a gap with prevailing costs in November 2020. Providers also started offering more data for the same price, which statisticians consider a disinflationary force, since consumers are getting more without having to pay extra.


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The latest CPI reading is in line with the Bank of Canada’s outlook . The central bank in October said the index would average year-over-year increases of 4.8 per cent over the fourth quarter. Macklem and his deputies continue to see the current inflation as a global phenomenon caused by an acute mismatch between demand and supply. As executives and logistics experts restore balance, policy-makers assume price pressures will recede, although they admit their confidence in that outlook has become wobbly in recent weeks.

“While we expect inflation to ease in the second half of 2022, we are closely watching inflation expectations and wage costs,” Macklem said in a speech on Dec. 15. “We will ensure that the forces pushing up prices do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.”

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It’s unclear what impact higher interest rates would have on the recent bout of inflation. There’s nothing the Bank of Canada can do to influence the oil market, and food prices are rising because of an uncommon number of adverse weather events in key agricultural regions around the world. Higher interest rates will do little to speed the production of computer chips, the shortage of which is slowing the production of automobiles, or speed the unloading of containers piling up at congested ports.

Still, the Bank of Canada probably does influence expectations, which central bankers believe are an important driver of inflation. If workers think their cost of living is rising at the rate of five per cent, they will begin asking for pay increases of at least as much, and employers will raise their prices to cover their higher labour bills. An interest-rate increase could short circuit that cycle and stop inflation from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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“Even with the steady read, the reality is that CPI is running far above target,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, said. “While this release alone may not advance the case for rate hikes, the bigger picture continues to do so — loudly.”

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter: carmichaelkevin

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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