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International air travel may not return to normal until 2023: report | Mapped – Daily Hive

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Air travel may not recover as quickly as we would like, according to recent analysis shared by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which outlines that the damage incurred by the COVID-19 global pandemic may extend to 2023. Long-haul travel in particular is likely to be the most significantly impacted.

In a report published by IATA, the organization anticipates that the recovery of the travel industry will be led by domestic endeavours to begin with, with passenger numbers not climbing back to their normal state until at least 2023.

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“Global GDP growth is expected to fall by around 5% this year, before rebounding and returning to its 2019 level in 2021,” the report explains. “To put this decline into context, it is around 4x larger than that of the global financial crisis, where world GDP fell by 1.3% in 2009.”

To place this in a travel-oriented context, the anticipated decrease in the volume of air passengers (measured by Revenue Passenger Kilometres – RPKs) is substantially more severe, with a decline of roughly 50% this year.

To simplify, an RPK is an airline industry measurement that determines the number of kilometres travelled by paying passengers.

“The recovery is such that a return to the level of 2019 does not occur until 2023, taking around two years longer than global GDP,” the report states.

It continues that there are several reasons why RPKs are likely to take longer to recover in the broader scope of the global economy. At the forefront, consumer confidence in air travel remains one of the most significant factors.

Given the nature of the coronavirus pandemic, it will likely take time for customers to feel comfortable travelling again, even as governments continue to lift border lockdowns and other health and safety measures.

As well, following a lockdown in the second quarter of the fiscal year, IATA anticipates domestic and short-haul air travel markets to begin recovery over the course of Q3. However, long-haul markets will take more time to recover.

“Domestic RPKs are expected to decline by around 40% this year, while
international RPKs are likely to decline by around 60%,” the report explains. “As a consequence, we expect the average trip length will decline sharply this year, by around 8.5%, before gradually recovering thereafter.”

Of course, some variables may change, and there is undoubtedly a level of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic and the anticipated recovery metrics and predictions in terms of economic activity and the volume of passengers utilizing air transport.

“The impacts of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of a longer duration than what is expected in domestic markets,” Alexandre de Juniac, director general and CEO of IATA, said in a press release.

“This makes globally agreed and implemented biosecurity standards for the travel process all the more critical. We have a small window to avoid the consequences of uncoordinated unilateral measures that marked the post-9.11 period. We must act fast.”

de Juniac continues that quarantine measures upon arrival in different countries will further facilitate distrust and shaky confidence that passengers feel regarding air travel. In a recent survey conducted by IATA, according to the press release, 69% of travellers disclosed that they would not consider travelling if it meant that they would have to quarantine for 14-days once they arrived.

“To protect aviation’s ability to be a catalyst for the economic recovery, we must not make that prognosis worse by making travel impracticable with quarantine measures,” de Juniac stated.

“We need a solution for safe travel that addresses two challenges. It must give passengers confidence to travel safely and without undue hassle. And it must give governments confidence that they are protected from importing the virus.”

According to de Juniac, IATA proposes a stacking of temporary non-quarantine protocols until a vaccine is developed as well as “immunity passports” or “nearly instant” coronavirus testing available at scale.

The organization believes that a universal “risk-based layered approach” will be crucial for the recovery and reopening of the air travel industry. Measures included in this approach would consist of preventing travel for those who present coronavirus-related symptoms by issuing temperature screenings and other procedures. It would also address the hazards surrounding asymptomatic travellers by having governments institute a “robust system of health declarations and vigorous contact tracing.”

Overall, IATA’s data shows that challenging times remain ahead for the travel industry with a multitude of factors at the industry as well as global governmental levels that will likely extend beyond this immediate crisis period.

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COVID-19: Ottawa reports seven new cases, fatal cases decline sharply in July – Ottawa Citizen

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Vaccinations have slowed considerably in the capital since the peak week in early July when nearly 133,000 doses were administered.

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Ottawa is reporting seven new laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases Monday as severe cases, hospitalizations and fatal outcomes continue to sharply decline in Ottawa while vaccination rates gradually climb.

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No deaths have been reported since early July, and there were two COVID-related deaths in the city during the month, while there were 14 deaths in June and 56 deaths in May. There have been 593 COVID-related deaths in the city since the beginning of the pandemic and 27,827 total cases.

There are currently no patients in local hospitals or in intensive care wards. Of Ottawa’s total cases, 27,184 people have now recovered.

There have been 49 cases in the last seven days at a rate of 4.6 cases per 100,000 population. That key indicator has remained relatively flat this week.

The virus reproduction rate, which measures the number of secondary cases generated by each COVID-19 case in the community, has a weekly R(t) value of 1.15. Any number above 1.0 indicates the virus is spreading in the community, while any value below that threshold indicates it is receding.

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The R(t) value was below that threshold during May and June, but has remained above 1.0 since mid-July. There has also been a slight rise in the viral signal in Ottawa’s wastewater over the last seven days, which typically signals a corresponding rise in daily case counts.

Ottawa’s test positivity average is 0.5 per cent for the past week.

Vaccinations have slowed considerably in the capital since the peak week in early July when nearly 133,000 doses were administered. There were 33,212 doses administered in Ottawa last week and 104,906 the week before.

Vaccinations so far in August have followed a similarly slowing pace with 4,277 doses administered on Sunday.

The city continues to outpace the provincial vaccination rate with 1,450,733 doses administered, with 799,882 first doses and 650,851 second doses administered. That represents 83 per cent of the eligible population (12-plus) with one dose and 72 per cent of eligible residents with both doses.

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Public Health Ontario did not release provincial data on the Civic Holiday Monday, and said the compiled data will be available during the regular morning update Tuesday.

There were 154 new cases in Quebec reported in the past 24 hours and no deaths in the province.

There are 61 patients in Quebec hospitals, one more admission since Friday, with 17 patients in ICU.

Another 38,883 vaccine doses were administered in the past 24 hours, and according to Monday’s provincial update, a total of 11,330,968 vaccine doses have been administered in Quebec, representing 74 per cent of the population.

Ontario reported 218 new cases on Sunday and two deaths, and as of the last update, the province had reported 550,654 total cases and 9,347 deaths. There were 78 patients in hospital and another 110 in ICU, with 78 requiring a ventilator.

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COVID-19 BY THE NUMBERS

Ottawa

(Reported Monday)

7: New cases

27,827: Total cases

0: New deaths

593: Total deaths

50: Active cases

0: In hospital

0: In ICU

4.6: Rolling seven-day average of cases per 100,000 people

0.5: Per cent test positivity, previous seven days

1.15: Estimated R(t), seven-day average. A number greater than one indicates the virus is spreading.

Ontario

(Reported Sunday. Due to Civic holiday, Monday’s data will be included in Tuesday’s update.)

218: New confirmed cases

550,654: Total cases

2: New deaths

9,347: Total deaths

78: Currently in hospital

*110: In intensive care

*78: On a ventilator

(*Note: Ontario Public Health statistics of ICU hospitalizations and ventilator cases contain some patients who no longer test positive for COVID-19, but who are being treated for conditions caused by the virus.)

60,583: Daily doses administered

19,519,781: Total doses administered

14,122: Tests conducted in previous 24 hours

1.4: Per cent positivity in cases

1.0: Estimated reproductive number, R(t). A number lower than one indicates the virus is receding.

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Russia Boosts July Oil Production As OPEC Allies Pump More – OilPrice.com

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Russia Boosts July Oil Production As OPEC+ Allies Pump More | OilPrice.com


Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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Russia saw its oil production rise for the first time in three months in July as OPEC+ continued to ease the production cuts and planned maintenance at some Russian oilfields ended.

Russia’s crude oil and condensate production combined stood at around 10.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up by 0.3 percent from June, according to Bloomberg estimates based on preliminary data from Russia’s Energy Ministry.

In May and June, Russia’s crude and condensate production was lower despite the higher quota the leader of the non-OPEC group in the OPEC+ alliance had. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), cited by Bloomberg, Russian crude oil production was lower in June because of planned maintenance.

It’s difficult to assess Russia’s compliance with the OPEC+ deal because its energy ministry is not breaking down crude oil and condensate production. Russia has won an exemption not to consider its condensate output as part of the production cut agreement.

As per Bloomberg estimates, if Russia’s condensate production in July was the same as in June, at around 900,000 bpd, then its crude oil production should have been 9.56 million bpd, above its quota of 9.495 million bpd for July. 

Russia’s compliance with the OPEC+ deal will be around 100 percent in July, Deputy Prime Minister and chief oil negotiator, Alexander Novak, told reporters in Moscow on Friday.

Russia can boost its oil production in August by 100,000 bpd, as per the parameters in the OPEC+ deal agreed in July, Novak added.

On July 18, the OPEC+ group decided it would start returning 400,000 bpd to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.

While Russia saw its oil production inch up by 0.3 percent month over month in July, OPEC’s oil production is estimated to have jumped last month by 610,000 bpd to 26.72 million bpd, the highest since April 2020, the monthly Reuters survey showed.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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COVID-19: Canada's Moderna vaccines risk expiring due to hesitancy and preferences – Global News

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