Investing in oil and gas is the wrong lesson for Alberta to learn from Lougheed - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Investing in oil and gas is the wrong lesson for Alberta to learn from Lougheed – The Globe and Mail

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Max Fawcett is a freelance writer and the former editor of Alberta Oil magazine and Vancouver magazine. He previously worked in Alberta’s Climate Change Office.

A foreman inspects the carbon capturing research facility near Redwater, Alberta in this file photo from June 26, 2009. Alberta should invest more heavily in emissions-reduction technologies instead of a failing oil and gas industry, writes Max Fawcett.

John Ulan/The Canadian Press

When Jason Kenney became Premier of Alberta last April, he probably didn’t imagine he’d be talking about the possibility of his government investing directly in the oil and gas industry less than a year into its mandate. After all, as the former head of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, the idea of a government propping up a failing industry with direct investments would have probably felt only slightly less repulsive to him than the idea of raising taxes on the wealthy.

And yet, in the days leading up to his government’s second budget, he sounded an awful lot like someone who was preparing to do just that. “Like the government of the late Premier Lougheed,” he declared, “Alberta is prepared to invest directly and support companies and Indigenous groups, when necessary, to assure the future of responsible resource development.”

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But Jason Kenney is no Peter Lougheed, and his United Conservative Party government’s apparent interest in supporting the oil and gas industry has very little in common with the concerns that motivated Mr. Lougheed’s Progressive Conservatives. While the latter was interested in building his province’s economic future, Mr. Kenney simply appears determined to keep its past alive – at almost any cost.

After all, Mr. Lougheed’s decision to create the Alberta Energy Company wasn’t about shoring up an existing industry. It was about responding to changes in global energy markets, which were turned upside down by the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973; it was also about using the power and patience of government to transform the oil sands from a science experiment into a viable industry. The returns on that initial investment were spectacular: The $800-million Athabasca oil sands complex seeded the field from which a multibillion-dollar industry grew, one that has employed tens of thousands of people and has produced millions of barrels of oil. The Alberta Energy Company, which Albertans were able to buy shares of in 1974, would eventually become Encana, one of the largest oil and gas companies in Canadian history before its ill-fated split in 2009.

Most of Mr. Lougheed’s investments from the 1970s, many of which were made with the windfall the province received as a result of soaring oil prices, didn’t pan out as well as the Alberta Energy Company. Some, like an investment in Peter Pocklington’s meatpacking operation, were outright disasters. But all of them were made with an eye to the future – and expanding Alberta’s place in it.

If Mr. Kenney wants to do the same, he shouldn’t be investing the province’s money – much less the pension funds of Alberta’s public employees, as has been suggested – in the oil and gas industry. Instead, he needs to be looking to support new opportunities for economic growth and development.

Maybe that means investing more heavily in Emissions Reduction Alberta, the government agency that has been helping de-risk low-carbon technologies since it was created in 2009.

Maybe that means investing more in Alberta Innovates, whose “Bitumen Beyond Combustion” program has helped reveal an entirely new market for the province’s heavy crude: carbon-fibre production. Indeed, the ability to convert bitumen into carbon fibre, a material that’s both stronger and lighter than steel, could even play a key role in lowering the cost of electric vehicles, creating a new multibillion-dollar industry in Alberta in the process. As James Munson noted in a 2018 story for the magazine Corporate Knights: “If carbon fibres took just one percent of the global steel market by 2030, that would require three million barrels of bitumen a day.”

Or maybe, if Mr. Kenney really wants to follow in Mr. Lougheed’s footsteps, that means backstopping a company that would build out the infrastructure needed to produce hydrogen and ship it to global markets. A recent report from the University of Alberta’s David Layzell and the University of Calgary’s Jessica Lof suggests that Alberta, already estimated to be the second-lowest-cost producer of hydrogen in the Asia-Pacific region, is positioned to benefit from the considerable economic upside of the rapidly growing hydrogen market, which could both displace diesel as the fuel of choice for heavy industry and store renewable energy generated by wind and solar. And based on the latest report from the International Energy Agency, the timing of a strategic government investment couldn’t be better. “This is a critical year for hydrogen,” executive director Fatih Birol wrote. “It is enjoying unprecedented momentum around the world and could finally be set on a path to fulfill its longstanding potential as a clean energy solution.”

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It’s hard to imagine Mr. Kenney actually pursuing any of these opportunities, given that his government has consistently reacted like it has a severe allergy to the very idea of economic diversification. But his preferred strategy of cutting corporate taxes and funding inquisitions targeting the oil and gas industry’s enemies has so far only produced a boom in public-relations fiascoes. Maybe, just maybe, it’s time to start betting on the future instead of the past. Peter Lougheed would certainly have approved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Crypto Market Bloodbath Amid Broader Economic Concerns

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The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.

The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.

Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.

The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.

Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.

Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.

Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.

The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.

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