“The average client portfolio is riskier today than it has been historically because you’re not getting the natural diversification” that bonds provide, said panellist Luke Ellis, CEO with London, U.K.–based Man Group plc, a global investment management firm with offerings that include quantitative portfolios. As a result, asset allocation must be reconsidered, he said.
Ellis also warned of the challenge of identifying winners and losers in a world of massive government spending. The market is not efficient when fiscal policy helps support weak companies, he said.
Neil Cunningham, president and CEO with Ottawa-based PSP Investments, one of Canada’s largest pension investment managers, said PSP is reducing government bonds in portfolios in favour of emerging market debt, private credit and high inflation–linked infrastructure projects with little operating or credit risk. Adding in these assets increases risk, so the firm reduces equities to stay within risk limits, he said.
More generally, as a long-term investor, Cunningham aims to distinguish between noise and longer-term trends. The U.S. election, he said, is noise: “We’re much more concerned with the trends that get accelerated by Covid,” such as de-globalization, greater e-commerce adoption and working from home.
Cunningham also suggested investors follow the long-term trends of ESG and diversity and inclusion because governments, employees and customers will consider these factors as they legislate, work and shop.
Mohammed Alardhi, executive chairman with Manama, Bahrain–based Investcorp, a global manager of alternatives, highlighted the need to diversify within sectors and geographies, noting that investors in oil-producing regions were particularly hard hit by the pandemic.
Cunningham described investing in a U.K. pub business just months before the economic shutdown. No one expected a business that stayed open during the Blitz to close, he said. The lesson: “Unless you diversify both geographically and by sector, you’re bound to get hit by something you didn’t expect.” Unexpected downturns also require investors to ensure they have sufficient liquidity, he said.
Panellists also considered trends arising from geopolitics.
The outcome of U.S.-China tensions will be key for many portfolios over the next decade, depending on the position investors take, Ellis said.
For example, should China be a small part of a portfolio because of the country’s restrictions on foreign businesses, or should it be a large part as the eventual largest economy in the world?
As U.S.-China tensions put pressure on other governments to pick a side, investors will face an increasingly challenging environment, Ellis said.
Cunningham said his firm was increasing allocations to Australasia and emerging markets based on long-term geopolitical trends that will see those economies benefit.
The outlook for investment in Canada
Ian McKay, CEO with Ottawa-based Invest in Canada, also spoke at the session and provided a positive outlook for foreign investment in this country despite an overall negative forecast for foreign investment flows.
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to decrease by up to 40% this year and by a further 5–10% in 2021, according to the World Investment Report 2020 from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
This would bring FDI flows to “the lowest levels we’ve seen in over 20 years,” McKay said, which will motivate governments, investment funds and agencies to reassess their strategic plans and investing criteria.
As they do so, Canada is proving attractive.
Since the pandemic, Invest in Canada has experienced a spike in interest from global investors in three sectors in Canada: life sciences, associated with a vaccine for Covid-19; the digital economy, in which Canada is a leader in artificial intelligence; and clean technology, such as hydrogen or electric cars and renewable energy.
“In Canada, we have the right ingredients for that — the raw materials, highly skilled workforce, innovative ecosystems and global market access,” McKay said.
Fundamental factors also favour Canada when it comes to attracting investment, such as political and economic stability, an open mindset to free and rules-based trade, and a global supply of workforce talent, McKay said.
Despite the forecast for foreign investment flows, “we are certain that the future is bright for those investors who continue to build and expand their operations in Canada,” McKay said.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
