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Investor Exodus Leaves Oil Stocks In Disarray | OilPrice.com

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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Oil stocks have suffered a lot over the past half decade.  

First it was the 2014 oil price crash. Just as the oil industry emerged from the collapse, the energy transition and peak oil demand themes started to weigh on the shares of Big Oil and other energy companies. Then came the growing calls from investors and shareholders that the oil industry take responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, further depressing oil stocks and making the sector as unpopular as Big Tobacco once was.

Then came the oil price crash of 2020, as Saudi Arabia and Russia abruptly ended on Friday their three-year-long partnership in trying to fix oil prices, or as they said, ‘bring stability back to the market.’  

An all-out oil price war is on again, and oil stocks are set for worse pain ahead.

First, shares in oil firms typically follow the oil price movements. Even before Russia and the Saudis broke up their oil bromance, oil prices and oil stocks had been hit by depressed demand amid the coronavirus outbreak and fears of significantly slowing economies. The energy sector has been the worst performing sector of the S&P 500 index this year.  

And if the end of the OPEC+ coalition on Friday is any indication for what’s ahead for oil stocks, they are in for some very ugly weeks and months.

As oil prices collapsed by 10 percent on Friday, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration exchange traded fund (ETF) also plunged by 10 percent to an all-time low. The Energy Select Sector SPDR fund XLE slumped by 5.6 percent on Friday and is down a massive 29 percent since the start of the year. Related: Offshore Wind To See $200+ Billion Expansion By 2025

In the S&P 500 index on Friday, the worst 15 performers included 14 energy stocks, including Occidental, Apache Corp, Pioneer Natural Resources, EOG Resources, Devon Energy, and Halliburton, as per market data compiled by MarketWatch. In the Dow 30, ExxonMobil dipped 4.8 percent and was the second worst performer.

As Saudi Arabia began the oil price war, oil prices collapsed by 30 percent early on Monday, with WTI Crude plunging to as low as $28 a barrel—indicating pain for oil stocks and for many U.S. oil producers who now face the day of reckoning with high debt, negative cash flows, and no access to capital.

Nearly a month ago, when the main concern on the oil market was the coronavirus outbreak, Moody’s warned that North American E&P firms will face high debt maturities and tighter access to capital over the next few years, with US$86 billion cumulative debt due between 2020 and 2024. Since most of the debt is held by speculative-grade companies, this implies “an elevated level of default risk for the industry,” Moody’s said on February 19.

On March 9, WTI Crude prices had plummeted to below $30 per barrel. U.S. producers will have a much lower value of their oil and gas resources against which they could borrow more money.  

“A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48,” Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said on Friday. Related: The Great Saudi Shale Swindle

“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit,” Hittle said.

The biggest oil firms will not be spared either. Exxon has just said it would keep investments at up to US$35 billion per year, despite the already sliding oil prices due to the coronavirus outbreak and its economic implications.

Exxon is evaluating the pace of activity in its key growth area, the Permian, in response to the market conditions, it said on Thursday. After Friday, it has to re-evaluate the evaluation in view of the 30% price collapse. If even Exxon’s Permian activity will suffer in the coming months, imagine the carnage among the ‘smaller guys’ in the U.S. shale patch.

Oil firms and oil stocks are set for severe pain in this latest oil price crash, while Big Oil struggles to convince investors and society that it could still be part of the solution, not the problem, in the energy transition.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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