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Investors brace for volatility as West moves to cut Russia off from SWIFT

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Investors were preparing on Saturday for more wild gyrations in asset prices after Western nations announced a harsh set of sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, including blocking some banks from the SWIFT international payments system.

New measures announced by the United States, Britain, Europe and Canada also include restrictions on the Russian central bank’s international reserves. The moves will be implemented in the coming days.

Investors have feared Russia would get kicked off SWIFT, the world’s main international payments network, as this would disrupt global trade and hurt Western interests as well as hit Russia.

“It means there is going to be a catastrophe on the Russian currency market on Monday,” said former Russian Central Bank Deputy Chairman Sergei Aleksashenko. “I think they will stop trading and then the exchange rate will be fixed at an artificial level just like in Soviet times.”

Michael Farr, chief executive of financial consulting firm Farr, Miller & Washington LLC, said of the impact on global markets, “This could be a surprise that is not taken very well if it means a slowdown in international trade.”

The news comes after a week when worries over the intensifying conflict in Ukraine shook markets across the world. Stocks tumbled and oil prices soared as investors rushed to gold, the dollar and other safe havens.

Many of those safety moves were at least partially unwound on Thursday and Friday, and U.S. stock markets rallied to close up for the week.

The latest measures could send markets on another wild ride, as traders assess the implications for the global economy, including potentially higher commodity prices and inflation. The war between Russia, one of the world’s biggest raw materials’ exporters, and Ukraine has already helped push up oil prices to their highest level since 2014.

The S&P 500 is off 8% for the year to date, dragged down by worries over geopolitical strife and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

“A lot of traders were kind of becoming convinced that the U.S. and Europe were not taking a hard stance,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. “This action will be really difficult to digest and it will really pick a nerve for a lot of investors. … A lot of the rebound we saw in the latter half of last week will be tested.”

Mohamed El-Erian, part-time chief economic adviser at Allianz and chair of Gramercy Fund Management, said excluding Russia from SWIFT “has the potential to cripple the economy there” if done comprehensively.

“Inevitably there would be spillovers and spillbacks, including more of a stagflationary impetus to the global economy and greater likelihood of Russian arrears to Western companies and creditors,” he said, in emailed comments.

Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, said the move is going to continue fueling demand for gold, Treasuries and other popular destinations for nervous investors.

“SWIFT is going to be painful and the markets are going to recognize that,” he said. “What you are going to get is continued volatility as all the participants are going to be adjusting their risk tolerance.”

One likely casualty will be the Russian rouble, investors said. Russia’s currency fell to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar in the past week, though it pared some of those losses on Friday.

“With the central bank likely to face severe constraints on currency intervention, the rouble will struggle to find a bottom,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. “No one wants to catch a falling knife.”

Some investors, however, said the markets could put a positive spin on the fresh measures as Western troops had not joined the war.

“It’s the closest thing to a declaration of war from a financial perspective,” said Ross Delston, a U.S. lawyer and former banking regulator. “It’s going to result in Russia being viewed as radioactive by U.S. and EU banks, which in turn would be a major barrier to trade with Russia.”

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Catherine Belton, Megan Davies, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Michelle Price; editing by Paritosh Bansal, Leslie Adler and Cynthia Osterman)

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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