Investors look past big banks' second quarter financial results for signs of interest rate impacts - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Investors look past big banks' second quarter financial results for signs of interest rate impacts – The Globe and Mail

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On average, the bank industry’s profits for the quarter that ended April 30 could fall 5 per cent compared with the same period last year.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

Investors are expecting Canada’s largest banks to report strong financial results for the second quarter that just ended. What happens next could be cause for greater concern.

Big bank earnings are likely to be robust, easing back from giddy highs a year ago as revenue from trading and investment banking dips and loan loss reserves start to creep up from unusually low levels. But analysts are looking ahead for signs the rate of growth in banks’ lending could be starting to slow as rising interest rates and economic turmoil begin to eat into demand for mortgages and other new loans.

On average, the industry’s profits for the quarter that ended April 30 could fall 5 per cent compared with the same period last year, when banks blew past estimates to report soaring profits, according to estimates in a research note by Sohrab Movahedi, an analyst at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

Bank of Montreal BMO-T and Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T are first to report earnings on May 25, followed by Royal Bank of Canada RY-T, Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T the following day. National Bank of Canada NA-T will be the last of the Big Six lenders to release results on May 27.

Mr. Movahedi estimates quarterly revenue will rise by 2 per cent on average, with the rate of growth in loan portfolios remaining strong, supported by strong mortgage demand, while rising interest rates should help boost profit margins on those loans. But some banking analysts are already looking past the second-quarter figures for signals the pace of borrowing could fall by next year, raising the prospect of leaner results to come.

“We expect the banks will post another set of strong results in [the fiscal second quarter], but with an economic slowdown increasingly being priced in, headline results might not matter all that much,” said Paul Holden, an analyst at CIBC World Markets Inc., in a note to clients. “We should not extrapolate strong growth this quarter into future quarters. Rapidly increasing borrowing costs and economic uncertainty will dampen future demand.”

Mr. Holden estimates that banks’ loan books will still expand by an average of 9.6 per cent for their fiscal year, which ends Oct. 31, thanks to a strong start. But he expects that rate of growth will be cut in half for fiscal 2023, falling to 4.7 per cent.

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One key reason analysts expect slower growth is an anticipated cooling of the housing market after a two-year hot streak. Home prices fell nationally from March to April, and some economists are predicting a correction in prices in some regions.

Increases in mortgage balances “have been running at unsustainably strong levels since late 2020,” said Gabriel Dechaine, an analyst at National Bank Financial Inc., with most banks posting consistent double-digit percentage increases year over year. But because mortgages typically generate low profit margins for banks, the hit to revenue from a sharp slowdown should be manageable, he said.

If the current year-over-year rate of mortgage growth of 10 per cent was halved, he estimates banks’ revenue and earnings per share would have been about 0.3 per cent lower. Instead, concerns about a possible recession or a period of stagflation – a combination of rising prices and slow economic growth – “are the most relevant bank stock driver,” Mr. Dechaine said.

In that context, rising interest rates are a “double edged sword,” said John Aiken, an analyst at Barclays Capital Canada Inc. They will help increase profit margins banks earn from loans, which were squeezed during a prolonged period of rock-bottom borrowing costs. But they are also likely to reduce demand for borrowing by making it more expensive, most notably for mortgages and personal loans.

A gradual uptick in provisions for credit losses – the money banks set aside to cover loans that may default – is also likely to dampen bank profits. In the near term, provisions will still be modest, creeping up from historically low levels when COVID-19 support and other fiscal and monetary stimulus drove down defaults.

But lately, bank profits have been padded as they recovered provisions set aside during the pandemic that were no longer deemed necessary because actual losses on loans were much lower than expected.

With the war in Ukraine and rising inflation driving concerns about the potential for a recession, banks are expected to slow or pause those releases of loan loss reserves.

Revenue from fees is also likely to dip as the pace of equity and debt issuance has slowed, and tumbling stock and bond markets will eat into returns from wealth management.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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