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Iraq’s slippery politics to test new prime minister

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By Taylan Cokenoglu

Edited by Harry Miller Canada News Media

ISTANBUL

Appointment of Adnan al Zurfi as Iraq’s new prime minister has evoked mixed reactions in the country.

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After months of deadlock, withdrawal of candidacy by Mohammed Allawi and failure of rival parties to zero in on a successor to Abdul Mahdi, who had resigned in December following protests, President Barham Saleh finally handed the baton to Zurfi, a former governor of Najaf province.

He was appointed governor by Paul Bremer in 2004 who led the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) following the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the U.S.

While Kurdish, Sunni and a section of Shiite politicians have welcomed the move, other Shiite political blocs supported by Iran have severely objected to the appointment. They have already begun lobbying to block his path.

The main political actors in Iraq, the protesters on the streets, who brought down Mahdi government, the U.S. and Iran have responded differently at this new development.

Since Allawi withdrew his candidature early this month, seven important Shiite parties representing in the parliament were deliberating to choose the new candidate. Three of them could not agree on the choice offered by other parties. President Salih ultimately took the matter in his hand and zeroed in on Zurfi, one of the names which were suggested to him for the post earlier.

Hailing from the southern province of Najaf, Zurfi was imprisoned by the Saddam Hussain regime after the suppression of rebellion launched against his Baath Party in 1991. He, however, soon escaped from the prison and took the flight to Saudi Arabia, where he spent two years in a refugee camp.

In 1993, he migrated to the U.S. attained its citizenship and lived there till 2004. He returned Baghdad, a year after President George Bush invaded the country and ousted Saddam Hussain from power. He was soon appointed governor of his home province Najaf. He later held senior positions at the Interior Ministry from 2006-2009 and served as the governor of Najaf once again from 2009-2015.

Kurdish, Sunni groups supportive but cautious

Even while welcoming the appointment, Kurdish and Sunni groups have remained cautious. Top Shiite leader Muqtada Sadr refused to comment but said the issue concerns only to the Iraqi people.

In other words, Sadr called on Iran and the U.S. not to interfere in the process. He did not oppose Zurfi’s candidature in principle. But it is worth considering that Sadr, whose political maneuvers are unpredictable and is known for switching sides, may have made a surprise choice.

Ammar al-Hakim — cleric and politician who led the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, from 2009-2017 – also did not oppose Adnan Zurfi as a name. But he criticized the appointment process, questioning procedures and demanded consensus.

As for the former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who is in the same political coalition as Zurfi, is one of the prominent players supporting the new prime minister.

The Iran-backed Fatah Coalition which includes another former Prime Minister Nouri Maliki and other parties has objected to the appointment, describing it “unconstitutional”. They have charged that Zurfi was a “man of the U.S.”

Iranian-backed political groups have also indicted President Salih for choosing Zurfi.

Hadi al-Ameri, the leader of Fatah Coalition, described Salih’s decision to appoint Zurfi as illegal and provocative. He said Salih will have to bear serious consequences of his decision.

Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) — Iranian-backed Shiite political party- leader Kays al-Hazali said Salih has endangered the peace. Another member of the Coalition Badr asked MPs to overthrow Salih for breaching the constitution.

But Salih has stood by his decision, saying he had appointed the new prime minister with the approval of the Federal Court. He said the charges that his decision was illegal is unwarranted.

Zurfi allergic to pro-Iranian militias

Their criticism stems from the fact that Zurfi has been allergic to pro-Iranian militias when he was governor of Najaf. It is also no secret that he wants Hashdi al-Shabi, a Shiite mobilization force that fought Daesh/ISIS in the north to be fully integrated into the Iraqi army. Indeed, in his statement, as soon as he was appointed, he hinted that the group should only operate under the state orders. Therefore, it seems clear that the militias, which have transnational goals, do not like Zurfi.

Further, the new prime minister in the past has severely criticized Iran’s influence over Iraq. He has also called for having a balanced foreign policy. All political parties know that he encourages better relations with the U.S.

Zurfi supported U.S. presence in Iraq

Even after the assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani head of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard along with Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Zurfi had favored continued U.S. presence in the country. Therefore, Zurfi will be a serious obstacle to the goals of the Iranian-backed militias.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that these militias got political prominence after the weakening of the Islamic Invitation Party and the defeat of the ISIS/Daesh. The political branches of the Iranian-backed militia have achieved a decision-making position in the Shiite political bloc following the 2018 elections. Therefore, the exclusion of these political formations in a possible Zurfi government would also mean their loss of political face. Of course, in such a case, it should not be forgotten that groups owing allegiance to Muqtada Sadr and Ammar al-Hakim will gain prominence and become politically decisive.

Protests against the government, which have been going on for nearly six months, have plunged Iraq’s political elite into the biggest political crisis. The anti-government demonstrations forced Adil Abdul-Mahdi to resign. Therefore, the political determination and the convictions of the young masses has become a new sociological reality that the political forces cannot ignore. In this respect, the attitude of the protesters regarding Zurfi’s candidacy is critical.

Protesters divided on Zurfi’s appointment

A section of protesters has rejected Zurfi. They consider him representing the status quo. But it is also a fact, that Zurfi’s candidature was not opposed as vehemently as that of Muhammed Allawi.

It is known that the number of protesters is rooting for Zurfi and say, that he should be given a chance. Some of them believe that it would cut down Iranian influence in the government.

Ayatollah Sistani — one of the most powerful and influential clerics and spiritual leaders of Iraqi Shia Muslims – who supported peaceful protests against the government has not yet expressed his opinion on Zurfi’s appointment.

While the appointment of the new prime minister in Iraq’s internal issue but is closely linked to the power struggle between the U.S. and Iran in the region. The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and David Schenker, head of the Near East Office have conditionally supported Zurfi’s candidacy. They expect that he will prevent attacks on the U.S. bases in Iraq in the short term, and in the long-term edge out Iran and its Iraqi allies.

In this respect, the option of any action against Iran and its allies depends on Zurfi’s process of forming a government.

We also see Tehran’s capacity to unite Shiites around a common candidate waning after the assassination of Suleimani and Mahdi. Indeed, the failure of the visit of Secretary-General of Iran’s National Security Council Ali Shemhani’s to Baghdad proves this claim.

The new allegations are that Hassan Daneyfar, Iran’s former ambassador to Baghdad had come to Iraq to reconcile the Shiite groups. Only the coming days will show whether these contacts have yielded results. But current process shows that Iran is trying its luck through media and political lobbying.

Iran backed parties reject Zurfi

The Iranian-backed Shiite parties, which have been pushing for the withdrawal of Zurfi’s candidacy and are demanding a replacement have proposed three new candidates. One of them Mohsen al-Zalimi, has already turned down this request. Thus, these groups, which until now had been insistent on appointing only their preferred politicians, appeared to be running low on the bargaining power.

In the current situation, their power is maneuvering is also limited. Zurfi’s dismissal is not legally possible unless he quits, which seems a farfetched scenario. He has already begun consultations to form a government. Another option could be to defeat him politically during a vote of confidence.

But the fact that the Iranian-backed groups are waging a political and psychological war against Zurfi suggests that they will not risk a vote of confidence. Another aspect of this psychological war is to use the global coronavirus of the COVID-19 crisis to delay political decision-making processes. That will allow Adil Abdul-Mahdi to continue as the prime minister.

Zurfi has three weeks to form a government. He may be a politically stubborn character, but his main mission now is to convince and persuade dissenting Shiite blocs. However, considering the political and psychological war launched against him, it is not difficult to predict that his road would be difficult.

In this case, three scenarios seem to be on the horizon. The first, and the toughest, is the possibility that the parties will make mutual concessions after lengthy negotiations and reach an agreement. Secondly, Zurfi withdraws from his candidacy, believing that his consultations would yield no results. The third possibility is that Zurfi will opt for seeking a vote of confidence in the parliament, with the support of Kurds, Sunnis and half the Shiite bloc.

As a result, it is too early to say whether Zurfi will be able to form a government on Iraq’s slippery political landscape. His main challenges are to convince political leaders with very divergent priorities and more importantly to respond to the demands of the protesters.

More so, the danger of another crisis looms large on Iraq, if the new government carries out its political activities without attending to the political, economic and social demands of the next generation.

*Taylan Cokenoglu is a researcher at the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM) working on the social and political transformation of the Middle East and the relations between religion and politics in modern Shiite societies

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency

*Translated by Merve Dastan in Ankara

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Federal government promising a 'renters' bill of rights' in upcoming budget – CBC.ca

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his government will introduce new measures — including a new “bill of rights” — that he says will help protect those who rent their homes as part of the upcoming budget.

Trudeau said the new measures are specifically geared toward younger people, who are renting more than previous generations.

“It’s about changing the rules of the game in a way that meets young people where they are,” he said on Wednesday.

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Ottawa will work with provinces and territories to develop a “renters’ bill of rights” that would introduce a national standard lease agreement and implement requirements for landlords to disclose an apartment’s pricing history to allow tenants to negotiate their rent.

The new measures will also include a $15-million fund for provincial legal aid organizations that help tenants fight against “renovictions” and landlord abuse.

The Liberals are also proposing to change federal rules so that making rental payments on time will count toward someone’s credit scores, something Trudeau said is meant to help renters looking to one day buy a house.

“If you look at someone who pays a $2,000 [per month] mortgage, they’re getting recognition and credit for that from their bank as part of their credit score,” the prime minister said.

“But if you’re paying $2,000 a month on rent, you get no kudos.”

Typically the government doesn’t discuss what is in an annual budget until it is introduced in the House of Commons. But the announcement was made weeks prior to the release of the Liberals’ next budget, which is slated to drop on April 16.

Releasing tidbits from the budget ahead of time is part of a new communications strategy for the Liberals, sources told CBC News. Trudeau and his ministers are expected to make a number of similar announcements in the run-up to the budget, the sources said.

WATCH | Trudeau says new measures aim to help tenants: 

Liberals promise ‘renters’ bill of rights’ to fight housing crisis

5 hours ago

Duration 2:07

The Liberals are looking to create a ‘renters’ bill of rights’ to help deal with Canada’s housing crisis. Justin Trudeau says the plan is geared toward younger people suffering from a rising cost of living. The Conservatives call the measures meaningless.

Before revealing the planned rental measures on Wednesday, Trudeau took a moment to plug the April 16 fiscal plan, saying that the budget will be about “fairness.”

“For Canada to succeed, we need everyone to succeed,” he said.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland joined Trudeau for his announcement and hinted about further announcements ahead of budget day.

“Over the coming days and in the April budget, we are going to launch a no-holds-barred plan to wrestle down the cost of owning and renting a home,” she said.

Wednesday’s announcements came on the same day that the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released a report that found a surge in new apartment construction drove housing start increases in several major Canadian cities last year.

But the report also cautions that demand continues to outweigh supply.

The opposition Conservatives, who have enjoyed a healthy lead in recent polls, have made housing — and other cost-of-living issues — a key point of attack against the governing Liberals.

Following his announcement, Trudeau was asked whether he thinks he bears any responsibility for people feeling left behind in the current economy and whether the new measures would be enough to convince younger people to support him in the next election.

In response, Trudeau suggested that a recent rise in the cost of living is not unique to Canada.

“Young people who are key to our present, and obviously key to our future, are seeing a system that is stacked against them. That’s true in Canada but also true elsewhere around the world,” he said. “What we’re focused on now is making sure that young people can see their success in the economy.”

Opposition parties criticize Liberal announcement

Scott Aitchison, the Conservative housing critic, said Wednesday’s announcement was Liberal posturing that won’t get results.

“Today’s photo op is just another set of meaningless measures that won’t result in building the homes Canadians need,” he said in a statement.

NDP housing critic Jenny Kwan criticized the announcement for not going far enough.

“The Liberals are so out of touch with what Canadian renters are experiencing that they keep offering half-measures instead of a real action,” Kwan said in a statement.

The NDP is calling on the government to invest more in affordable housing while temporarily preventing for-profit firms from buying designated affordable-housing spaces.

WATCH | Liberal government promises better protections for renters in upcoming budget: 

Liberal government promises better protections for renters in upcoming budget

9 hours ago

Duration 11:39

The Liberal government unveiled three new proposals Wednesday to better protect renters in Canada. Power & Politics speaks to Marci Ien, minister of women, gender equality and youth, about the proposed protections.

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‘Hillary was right’: Lifelong GOP voter on why he is leaving party – CNN

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‘Hillary was right’: Lifelong GOP voter on why he is leaving party

Texas Trey, a lifelong Republican voter, speaks with CNN’s Laura Coates about why he plans to leave the party before the 2024 election.


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– Source:
CNN

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Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 15-points. Naheed Nenshi is the most well-known and well-liked NDP.

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From March 14 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 Alberta adults exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

This is the first time we have fielded one of our public surveys in Alberta since Rachel Notley announced she was stepping down as NDP leader, triggering a leadership election. This survey was also completed prior to the announcement on Tuesday morning by NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi that she is dropping out of the NDP leadership race and endorsing Naheed Nenshi.

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In this report, we share results of the core political opinion questions, a bit of a deep-dive on impressions of the provincial government led by Danielle Smith, and a look at how Albertans feel about the NDP leadership candidates and how they perform in hypothetical match-ups with Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party.

The UCP holds a 15-point lead over the Alberta NDP

If a provincial election were held today, 55% of committed Alberta adults would vote UCP while 40% would vote Alberta NDP. 2% would vote for the Alberta Party while 2% would vote for another party. Since our last survey in October 2023, the UCP is down 1 while the NDP is unchanged.

Since the 2023 provincial election, the NDP is down 4 while the UCP is up 2.

Regionally, the UCP is ahead by 8 in Calgary (52% to 44%) and 38 in other communities outside Calgary and Edmonton-proper. In Edmonton, the Alberta NDP is ahead by 11 (53% to 42%).

The UCP lead by 22 among men, 7 among women and holds a commanding 39-point lead among Albertans aged 60+. Among those under 45 the two parties are basically tied.

When it comes to how Albertans feel about the performance of the Danielle Smith government, 32% approve while 38% disapprove. In Calgary, the Smith government’s net approval is -13, in Edmonton it is -20, and in the rest of the province it is +11.

Impressions of the two main party leaders are fairly similar. 38% of Albertans have a positive impression of Premier Smith while 40% have a negative impression for a net score of -1. NDP Leader Rachel Notley has a net score of -12, with 31% viewing her positively and 43% negatively.

How do Albertans feel about the provincial government?

Respondents were asked to choose phrases or words that describe the Smith government. We asked the same question to our national sample about the Trudeau government and to a large sample in Ontario about the provincial government led by Danielle Smith. We will share results of those results in the coming days.

In Alberta, views of the Smith government are mixed but generally more positive than how people feel about the Ford government in Ontario or the Trudeau government federally.

More than half of Albertans feel the Smith government is “clear on what it wants Alberta to be” rather than “unclear on what it wants Alberta to be”. Half thinks the government is “focused” while 33% think it is “distracted”. More feel it is “effective” than “ineffective” and about equal numbers feels the government is “focused on the right priorities” rather than “focused on the wrong priorities”.

34% describe the government as “unifying” while 42% think it is “divisive” and 43% describes it as “proactive”, more than feel it is “reactive”.

Overall, for a government that has taken on some controversial issues, these results suggest it is seen positively and in the right frame with a sizeable portion of the population.

But we also asked respondents whether they feel the provincial government is sufficiently focused on or addressing several key issues. Areas where most Albertans want to see the government more focused include “managing the cost of living” (60%) and “improving the healthcare system” (58). Another 52% think it could be more focused on “keeping your taxes as low as possible”.

In contrast, the provincial government is more likely to be seen as sufficiently focused on “standing up for Alberta” (49%) and “growing the Alberta economy” (37%).

One area where there’s more neutral views is on climate change. 38% of Albertans feel the provincial government could be more focused on it, 28% think it is moderately or highly focused on it, while 34% are either neutral or unsure about it.

These results suggest that so far, the Smith government has done a pretty good job managing expectations and signalling to its coalition that it’s sufficiently handling the top issues people report are important to them.

The Alberta NDP Leadership Race

In this survey, we also asked several questions regarding the Alberta NDP leadership election.

We started by assessing the impressions people have of the six candidates running to be Alberta NDP leader. A few things stand out:

1 Naheed Nenshi is by far the most well known of the candidates. 74% of Albertans had an impression of Mr. Nenshi, significantly higher than Sarah Hoffman (49%), Kathleen Ganley (60%), Rakhi Pancholi (39%), Hil McGowan (39%), or Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (37%).

2. Naheed Nenshi is also the only candidate who has a clear net positive impression. 31% of Albertans have a positive view of him compared with 23% who have a negative view for a net score of +8. Kathleen Ganley is the only other candidate with a net positive, but just barely at +1.

3. Nenshi’s net scores are +14 in Calgary, +9 in Edmonton, and -1 in the rest of the province. Sarah Hoffman’s net scores are +2 in Edmonton, -6 in Calgary, and -3 in the rest of the province. Note, only 42% of Albertans outside the two largest cities have an impression of Ms. Hoffman.

And so apart from Mr. Nenshi, none of the other leadership candidates are household names (they rarely are in leadership races) and Mr. Nenshi has a substantial advantage when it comes to name recognition and favourability.

Now, we also tested five of the candidate in hypothetical matchups with Danielle Smith and the UCP.

From that exercise we learned a few things:

None of the leadership candidates perform as well as Rachel Notley as part of our main ballot question although Naheed Nenshi performs better than anyone else. This is likely more about his name recognition than any ability to attract Albertans who wouldn’t otherwise vote NDP – except in Calgary.

When we look at the regional dynamics, a few things stand out. In Edmonton, no one performs as well as Rachel Notley currently does. The main ballot question has the NDP ahead by 11. In all of the hypotheticals, that gap drops considerable.

In Calgary, Nenshi performs best, turning an 8 point UCP lead into a statistical tie. None of the other candidates perform better than Rachel Notley currently in Calgary.

Outside of Edmonton and Calgary, Nenshi performance as well as Notley but with all other possible NDP leaders the UCP lead grows.

Finally, another way to look at the potential impact of each NDP leadership candidate to shake up vote intentions to see how much of NDP support they retain and how much support they attract from other parties.

Naheed Nenshi does the best at attracting new supporters and retaining more of the current NDP support base. Sarah Hoffman retains more of the NDP base than other candidates, except for Nenshi, but attracts slightly less UCP and other party supporters than Nenshi. All the other candidates hold 2 in 3 current NDP supporters or less and attract few UCP candidates.

But the big takeaway is how little UCP support is attracted to any of the candidates at the moment demonstrating the level of polarization in Alberta at the moment.

It is also worth noting that given Nenshi name recognition advantage, this comparison isn’t a perfect measure of potential opportunity or risk for the other candidates but it does clearly show how challenging it will be for any of these candidates, if elected leader, to grow the NDP support base. Nenshi likely has the best chance and right now is the lower risk at losing existing NDP support.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “In reflecting on the findings of our recent survey, it’s clear that Premier Danielle Smith’s position in Alberta politics remains robust ten months into her mandate.

Retaining the support garnered in the last election, her government appears not only to have maintained its winning coalition but also enjoys a reasonably favourable approval rating amidst challenging economic conditions. This standing is especially notable when compared to incumbents in other provinces.

The Smith government is perceived as having a distinct mission and vision, demonstrating effectiveness in its undertakings, and maintaining focus on what many Albertans deem the right priorities, despite criticisms around certain initiatives like the Alberta Pension Plan and on-going disputes with Ottawa – which Albertans recognize as an area the government has focused a lot on.

The Alberta NDP leadership race introduces an intriguing dynamic, particularly with Naheed Nenshi’s advantage on name recognition and favourability among the candidates. His recent endorsement by former leadership candidate and NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi, coupled with claims of a significant increase in party membership, underscores his potential to translate personal brand into political capital. This development is crucial in leadership contests, where the ability to mobilize new members can decisively tilt the scales. Nenshi’s profile offers the Alberta NDP a formidable asset in its leadership transition, highlighting the strategic importance of both visibility and organizational support in such contests.

However, the broader challenge for the Alberta NDP, and indeed for any leader emerging from its ongoing leadership race, lies in positioning the party as a credible and appealing alternative to the United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith. Despite a leadership race that has garnered national attention, the ultimate electoral test will be in persuading UCP supporters to change their preferences. More akin to convincing cola drinkers to stop drinking cola than switching from Pepsi to Coke.

Premier Smith’s brand, characterized by having a clear vision and a focus on priority issues for Albertans, sets a high bar. The evolving political landscape in Alberta, shaped by both individual leadership qualities and collective party dynamics, continues to be a compelling study in contrasts and possibilities.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,000 Alberta adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

 

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