(Bloomberg) — This year will be one of the weakest on record for the Irish commercial property market, data from a real estate agent suggests after below average transaction levels in the third quarter.
Investment in commercial property in the country totaled €430 million ($454 million) during the three-month period, research by the agent Sherry FitzGerald found. That capital spend is far below the long-term third-quarter average of €788 million.
So far in 2023, investment in Irish commercial real estate was €1.4 billion, a 64% drop on the €3.9 billion recorded for the first nine months of last year.
“Given the current 22-year high in interest rates, it is no surprise that activity levels have been hindered,” said Jean Behan, a senior economist at Sherry FitzGerald.
The recent slump in transactions in Ireland reflects declines seen elsewhere in Europe, as soaring interest rates have driven up costs and pushed potential investors to ask for higher yields.
The office sector was the key driver of investor activity during the three months through September, accounting for 38% of capital spend, according to Sherry FitzGerald’s research. That’s despite a lull in transactions in the sector over the past three quarters.
Challenges in the office sector are being driven by interest rates and sustainability requirements, David Martin, capital and debt-advisory partner at EY Ireland, said in a phone interview.
The office and broader commercial property market now has a more diverse capital structure compared to 10 or 15 years ago though, Martin added, which helps against any sort of crash.
“There’s a huge difference between a crash and a lower number of transactions, which we are seeing, but that’s not to say that there’s a crash,” he said.