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Is AGNC Investment a Buy at a Discount to Book Value? – Motley Fool

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While the volatility in the stock market has received a tremendous amount of attention in the press, the drop in interest rates is perhaps even more dramatic. The 10-year bond yield has fallen from 1.92% to 0.77% since the beginning of the year. Falling interest rates are good for bonds, and mortgage-backed securities are bonds, so mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) like AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) should be doing great, right? Not so fast. 

The flight to safety has driven rates to record lows

We have seen an unprecedented drop in interest rates over the past two months, which is great news for everyone’s bond portfolio. If you owned the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), you are up over 23% year-to-date between dividends and capital gains. Corporate bonds have participated less, as the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEMKT:LQD) is only up about 5.5%, presumably on recession fears offsetting the change in interest rates. Agency mortgage-backed securities are guaranteed by the government, so there is no credit risk. However, the big companies that invest in these securities have not participated in the rally. Why is that? 

Image source: Getty Images.

Why mortgage-backed securities don’t act like Treasuries

Mortgage-backed securities are different than traditional bonds in one key characteristic, and that is the option of the borrower to repay the bond at any time. This means these securities react differently to changes in interest rates. When rates fall, borrowers will choose to refinance their current mortgages, which means that mortgage-backed securities with higher note rates will be more likely to prepay early. This limits the benefit they receive when rates fall.

At some point, higher-rate mortgage-backed securities become completely insensitive to decreases in interest rates. The weighted average coupon for AGNC’s portfolio at the end of the year was 4.26%, with the current 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.26%. A lot of that portfolio is in the money, which means it will make financial sense for the borrower to refinance the mortgage. That means a mortgage-backed security that was trading at 104 or 105 cents on the dollar a week ago might get paid off early at 100 cents on the dollar over the next month. 

AGNC’s interest rate risk

In AGNC’s most recent 10-K, the company lays out the effect of rate changes on its portfolio. Note that shocks negatively affect the portfolio, although increases in rates have a more severe effect. Also, note that the changes in profit/loss do not scale linearly with the shocks. Finally, these shocks are modeled based on what the company thinks mortgage-backed security pricing will do. Mark-to-market will differ from mark-to-model.

Change in Interest Rate Estimated Change in Portfolio Value Estimated Change in Tangible Book Value
– 100 basis points (0.5%) (6%)
– 50 basis points (0.1%) (0.9%)
+ 50 basis points (0.4%) (4.7%)
+ 100 basis points (1.3%) (14.8%)

Source: AGNC 10-K

As of Dec. 31, 2019, AGNC’s tangible book value per share was $17.66. Applying that 6% decrease gives a book value of $16.60 per share. So, while the current price as of Friday, March 5, is $17.10, it is not really trading at a discount to book. Book value is probably closer to $16.60 a share and is falling faster the longer this goes on. That will put the dividend at risk. As a general rule, financials (and especially mortgage REITs) like financial stability. Trying to buy the agency mortgage REITs right now with rates in free fall is like trying to catch a falling knife. The REITs that are more credit exposed will have less exposure to this event, and their performance will depend on whether the novel coronavirus pandemic causes a recession. For the agency REITs, it is all about interest rate risk. Once things stabilize, it will be time to take a look. But not now. 

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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