Is AGNC Investment Stock a Buy?

If there’s one thing you need to know about AGNC Investment (AGNC 0.21%), it is that this mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) has an ultra-high dividend yield of 15%. This is both a blessing and curse for investors, but which one it is depends a lot on the type of investor you happen to be. Here’s why most investors will not want to buy AGNC Investment and why some will actually find the high-yield stock quite interesting.

Who should NOT buy AGNC Investment

A 15% dividend yield is eye-catching for most dividend investors. Think about that for just a second — the rule of thumb average return for stocks is generally considered 10%. Just the dividend from AGNC Investment gets you above that figure. That sounds too good to be true, and for anyone that needs to use dividends to pay for their everyday expenses, well, it is too good to be true. Just look at the chart below and you’ll quickly see why.

AGNC Dividend Per Share (Quarterly) data by YCharts

The quarterly dividend payment, which is the purple line, is the important one for dividend-focused investors. It went up rapidly after AGNC Investment went public, but has been trending lower for more than a decade. Most investors would probably prefer a growing dividend stream, not one that has been shrinking. Now look at the orange line, which is dividend yield. It has been high throughout the REIT’s history, often more than 10%. A high-yield stock that cuts its dividend regularly is pretty much the epitome of a dividend trap.

For reference, the math behind dividend yields dictates that the price has to be falling along with the dividend to keep the yield high (more on the stock price below). So not only did investors end up with less income, they also ended up with less capital, too. You can see why most investors, particularly those in search of passive income, will probably want to avoid this ultra-high-yield REIT.

Some investors will find AGNC Investment appealing

But just because a stock is a bad choice for most investors doesn’t mean that it won’t be a good fit for a select few. And that’s the situation with AGNC Investment. Another chart will help to show why. As you would expect from the way yields are calculated, AGNC Investment’s stock price has fallen as the dividend has been cut. Since inception the stock has lost around half of its value, as the purple line below shows.

AGNC data by YCharts

However, look at the orange line, which is the total return. It is up more than 385%! The key here is that total return requires that dividends get reinvested. Essentially, the huge yield lets investors keep buying the shares and is leading to compounding that more than makes up for the stock price decline. But you have to reinvest the dividend to achieve this result. Put another way, AGNC Investment is not really an income stock; it should be looked at as a total return vehicle.

What AGNC Investment ends up being is an attractive way to gain exposure to the mortgage market. In fact, since its initial public offering, AGNC Investment’s total return is nearly as high as the total return of the S&P 500 index. That’s something that will interest investors that use an asset allocation model. This isn’t the approach that most small investors take, but it is a common approach for large investors like pension funds, family offices, and insurance companies.

Bad for some, good for others

AGNC Investment is not a bad company, and it is not a bad stock. It has a very specific purpose — providing exposure to the mortgage market — and it does that fairly well. That purpose, however, won’t meet the needs of every investor. If you need to use the income your portfolio generates, history suggests that you won’t want to own AGNC Investment. But if you look at total return and want exposure to mortgage securities, perhaps to fill out your asset allocation model, AGNC Investment could be just the stock for you.