As COVID-19-related public health restrictions continue to ease across Canada, experts are split on whether officials are letting their guard down too quickly.
The federal government is expected to announce Thursday that it is ending pre-arrival testing requirements for vaccinated travellers entering Canada by April 1, sources tell Global News.
The decision comes as nearly all remaining provincial mask mandates are set to be lifted across the country by Monday, with plans to eliminate all remaining restrictions by the end of April.
While experts say they welcome the end of pre-arrival testing, they are wary about what lifting other public health measures could mean for the pandemic in Canada — and whether governments will bring them back if needed.
“For all we know, this is a temporary ceasefire in the pandemic,” said Kerry Bowman, a bioethicist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.
“If it is, then we all need a break and we should have that break. But if there is a need for restrictions in the future, they need to make sense for that future moment, not for what worked six months ago.”
Bowman pointed to the decline in COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations nationally, which have indeed fallen from the record-breaking totals seen at the peak of the Omicron variant wave in late December and early January.
But those figures have continued to plateau for the past two weeks after stalling at levels higher than past “ceasefires” between waves.
There are still more than 3,700 people in hospital due to COVID-19, including over 400 patients in intensive care, while the country’s average daily death toll remains above 50.
Despite that, provinces are moving quickly to lift restrictions. Ontario and Nova Scotia will end their indoor mask mandates for most public settings on Monday, joining almost every other jurisdiction except for Quebec and Prince Edward Island, which are aiming for an April end to their mandates.
Capacity limits and moratoriums on large events have also been eased or eliminated entirely across most of the country, while vaccine passport systems are also ending.
Epidemiologists, meanwhile, are predicting a potential bump in cases, or “wavelet,” that could occur in the spring as people start to gather together more.
Yet they also acknowledge that the combination of Canada’s high vaccination rate — more than 80 per cent of the total population have received two doses, while nearly half have been boosted — and previous infection due to Omicron will limit another health-care system surge.
0:34 COVID-19: Ford encourages those concerned with lifting of mask mandate to continue wearing them
COVID-19: Ford encourages those concerned with lifting of mask mandate to continue wearing them
Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infectious diseases physician with Trillium Health Partners, says having that “wavelet” hit in the next couple of months could be a best-case scenario.
“We should remember that in temperate climates, you occasionally see a small bump in respiratory infections near the end of the winter,” he told Global News in a previous interview.
“If you’re going to have a bit of a bump, you want that to happen as far away from the start of winter as possible. In the springtime … the impact on the health system is going to be much less.”
What could trigger a return to restrictions?
Federal health officials have said only the appearance of a more deadly variant of COVID-19 could trigger a return to restrictions.
But chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said earlier this month that even if such a variant arrives, there are more treatment options for COVID-19, including the recently approved Paxlovid antiviral drug from Pfizer, as well as more access to rapid tests and a better understanding of how the virus works.
She told reporters at a March 4 COVID-19 update that with all of those measures, “we’ve got to be able to go into the fall and winter season, or indeed the next wave if it should come in between, with much more ability to respond without those really severe restrictions. That is the goal.”
0:46 Canada should focus on ‘easing societal disruptions’ as COVID-19 hospitalizations decline, Tam says
Canada should focus on ‘easing societal disruptions’ as COVID-19 hospitalizations decline, Tam says – Mar 4, 2022
Yet other experts warn such a variant may already be here. The Omicron BA.2 subvariant, which is more transmissible than even the highly infectious original Omicron variant, has been rising in western Canada and is believed to be behind a recent surge in cases in the United States.
Dr. Gerald Evans, a professor at Queen’s University who specializes in infectious diseases, says masking and capacity limits should remain in place until the full impact of BA.2 is known.
“I think it’s just been rushed a little bit too quickly,” he told Global News. “If we’re not quick to reduce restrictions … we could probably keep that BA.2 wave down a little bit.
Provincial leaders and public health officials have warned that the easing of restrictions does not mean the pandemic is over, and say data will determine their response to future outbreaks.
“Public Health will continue to closely monitor data that informs our public health response, including COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and the emergence of new variants of concern,” a statement from British Columbia’s health ministry said.
Similar responses were provided to Global News by the health ministries in Ontario and Alberta. Other requests for comment were not returned before publication.
Bowman says the end of the pre-arrival testing program has less to do with a decline in cases and hospitalizations than eliminating a measure that did little to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the country.
“Ninety per cent of the spread was already occurring inside the country, so the idea that we were going to stop the spread by testing before arrival never made much sense,” he said.
The planned continuation of rapid testing to detect new variants, on the other hand, will prove to be much more effective, he added.
Going forward, Bowman said it’s possible more provinces will allow people to make their own choices on what measures to follow in order to protect themselves, rather than mandating measures to protect all of society.
That, he added, would make more sense for the new reality of the pandemic and restore public trust.
“It’s just a different way of thinking,” he said. “We’re very divided right now. As long as people treat each other with respect, regardless of their choice to wear a mask or stay home, I think it could work.”
–With files from Global’s Aya Al-Hakim and the Canadian Press
OTTAWA – The New Democrats confirmed Thursday they won’t help Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives topple the government next week, and intend to join the Bloc Québécois in blocking the Tories’ non-confidence motion.
The planned votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats eliminate the possibility of a snap election, buying the Liberals more time to govern after a raucous start to the fall sitting of Parliament.
Poilievre issued a challenge to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this week when he announced he will put forward a motion that simply states that the House has no confidence in the government or the prime minister.
If it were to pass, it would likely mean Canadians would be heading to the polls, but Singh said Thursday he’s not going to let Poilievre tell him what to do.
Voting against the Conservative motion doesn’t mean the NDP support the Liberals, said Singh, who pulled out of his political pact with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago.
“I stand by my words, Trudeau has let you down,” Singh said in the foyer outside of the House of Commons Thursday.
“Trudeau has let you down and does not deserve another chance.”
Canadians will have to make that choice at the ballot box, Singh said, but he will make a decision about whether to help trigger that election on a vote-by-vote basis in the House.
The Conservatives mocked the NDP during Question Period for saying they had “ripped up” the deal to support the Liberals, despite plans to vote to keep them in power.
Poilievre accused Singh of pretending to pull out of the deal to sway voters in a federal byelection in Winnipeg, where the NDP was defending its long-held seat against the Conservatives.
“Once the votes were counted, he betrayed them again. He’s a fake, a phoney and fraud. How can anyone ever believe what the sellout NDP leader says in the future?” Poilievre said during Question Period Thursday afternoon.
At some point after those comments, Singh stepped out from behind his desk in the House and a two-minute shouting match ensued between the two leaders and their MPs before the Speaker intervened.
Outside the House, Poilievre said he plans to put forward another non-confidence motion at the next opportunity.
“We want a carbon-tax election as soon as possible, so that we can axe Trudeau’s tax before he quadruples it to 61 cents a litre,” he said.
Liberal House leader Karina Gould says there is much work the government still needs to do, and that Singh has realized the consequences of potentially bringing down the government. She refused to take questions about whether her government will negotiate with opposition parties to ensure their support in future confidence motions.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hasn’t ruled out voting no-confidence in the government the next time a motion is tabled.
“I never support Liberals. Help me God, I go against the Conservatives on a vote that is only about Pierre Poilievre and his huge ambition for himself,” Blanchet said Thursday.
“I support the interests of Quebecers, if those interests are also good for Canadians.”
A Bloc bill to increase pension cheques for seniors aged 65 to 74 is now at “the very centre of the survival of this government,” he said.
The Bloc needs a recommendation from a government minister to OK the cost and get the bill through the House.
The Bloc also wants to see more protections for supply management in the food sector in Canada and Quebec.
If the Liberals can’t deliver on those two things, they will fall, Blanchet said.
“This is what we call power,” he said.
Treasury Board President Anita Anand wouldn’t say whether the government would be willing to swallow the financial implications of the Bloc’s demands.
“We are focused at Treasury Board on ensuring prudent fiscal management,” she said Thursday.
“And at this time, our immediate focus is implementing the measures in budget 2024 that were announced earlier this year.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.
Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.
She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.
“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.
The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.
Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.
“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.
The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.
Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.
On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.
He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.
“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.
“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”
Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.
He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”
The next federal election must be held by October 2025.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.
Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.
Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.
As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”
Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson
