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Is COVID-19 the dreaded ‘Disease X' scientists warned us about? – News-Medical.net

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Back in February 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) talked about a new virus that will emerge and wreak havoc across the globe. Disease X was the term used for this new unknown pathogen that might cause a future epidemic.

Two years later, the novel COVID-19 coronavirus, has evolved from a mild to deadly virus and is spreading across the globe. This begs the question, is COVID-19 the dreaded Disease X that the WHO predicted back in 2018?

Disease X is a placeholder name adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) for any new unknown pathogen that may cause disease and potentially an epidemic in the future. Image Credit: Lightspring

What is Disease X?

Disease X is a deadly plague and an outbreak of a flu-like illness, which can result in a pandemic that can kill millions of people worldwide. In 2018, the WHO classified Disease X as more deadly than the Lassa fever and the Ebola virus disease.

Disease X also represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by an unknown pathogen to cause morbidity and mortality. During that time, the diseases being studied by the WHO include the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), Lassa fever, Ebola virus disease, Marburg virus disease, Nipa and henipaviral diseases, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-Cov), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Rift Valley fever (RVF), and the Zika virus.

Coronavirus infection magnitude

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is thought to have emerged in late December 2019 in a seafood market in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Since then, the virus has spread to 30 countries across the globe.

As of writing, there are 79,152 confirmed cases of the deadly virus, and it has killed 2,470 people, most of whom in the epicenter of the outbreak in Hubei Province. The majority of the cases were in mainland China, while outside the country, South Korea reported the greatest number of infections, with 763 cases, followed by Italy with 155 cases.

The WHO has declared the coronavirus a global health emergency on Jan. 30 due to the rapid spread of the virus. Many countries have already closed their borders from countries with many confirmed cases.

South Korea has seen the rapid spread of the disease in the country, prompting officials to declare the highest alert advisory. The number of cases increased from 31 on Feb. 18 to a staggering 763 six days after. The sudden spike in infections can be traced to the city of Daegu. Officials have identified a religious group, the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, as a coronavirus hotbed, where an infected woman attended masses for several occasions.

The virus has spread to 30 countries, including South Korea, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Iran, Thailand, United States, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates, France, Macau, Canada, the United Kingdom, Philippines, India, Russia, Spain, Lebanon, Nepal, Cambodia, Israel, Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Egypt, and Sri Lanka.

Is the coronavirus the Disease X?

The coronavirus is fast spreading, and if it is not contained, it can become catastrophic. The WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus raises concern about the increasing number of the coronavirus without a clear epidemiologic link.

He added that what they fear is if the virus spreads to a country without a sound and strong healthcare system. He fears that if the virus reaches these countries, which have weak healthcare systems, it can be devastating.

Now, scientists caution that the virus’s way of infection is still unclear. During the first weeks of its spread, the incubation period was estimated to be a couple of days to 14 days, but new cases have emerged with longer incubation periods. Further, the disease can be transmitted from human to human, with aerosol and droplets as a possible mode of transmissions.

With several things still unclear about the virus and how it spreads, scientists say that the novel coronavirus fits the disease X category.

“Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category, listed to the WHO’s priority list of diseases for which we need to prepare in our current globalized society,” Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, and a member of the WHO’s emergency committee wrote in the journal Cell.

“Time will tell whether the consolidated efforts of the Chinese authorities and the international public health and research community will succeed. But we also need to understand how we make this model of preparedness future-proof,” she added.

World Health Organization (WHO). (2018). Prioritizing diseases for research and development in emergency contexts. https://www.who.int/activities/prioritizing-diseases-for-research-and-development-in-emergency-contexts

World Health Organization (WHO). (2020). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 33. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200222-sitrep-33-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=c9585c8f_2

Zhang, Y., Koopmans, M., Yuen, K., Andersen, K., Perlman, S., Hogue, B., and Eckerle, I. (2020). The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: What We Know and What We Don’t. Cell. https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30171-9.pdf

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Canada to donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to combat mpox outbreaks in Africa

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The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.

It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.

Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”

Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.

Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.

On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.

Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”

But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”

“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.

Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.

Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.

Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.

“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.

“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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