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Is Labor still the party of initiative in Australian politics? – The Conversation AU

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As Australians try to put the upheavals of past year behind them and warily look ahead into 2021, probably one of the last things they want to contemplate is the prospect of a pugilistic election campaign.

However, this August, a 10-month window will open for Prime Minister Scott Morrison to call a House of Representatives and half-Senate election. Notwithstanding Morrison’s publicly stated preference to govern for a full three-year term, the guessing game about the timing of the federal election has already begun. There’s speculation about a poll in the spring of 2021. This chatter will only intensify in the coming months, accompanied by phoney campaign posturing.

More interesting than the timing of the next election is what it is likely to deliver. The blindsiding that was 2020 is a salutary warning against punditry about the future of any kind.

Nevertheless, as things currently stand, the Coalition is favoured to retain office when Australians next visit the ballot box. It has a relatively popular prime minister and has been mostly ahead, albeit narrowly, in opinion polls.

The political effect of COVID-19 has also been to bring incumbency back into vogue. So long as Australia’s record of ably handling the pandemic continues to hold, this will hand the federal government a powerful platform on which to campaign.

Working to the Coalition’s advantage in addition is a Labor opposition still disorientated by Morrison’s “miracle” victory of May 2019. The ALP seems as nonplussed as ever about a finding a formula for speaking simultaneously to workers from the inner cities, suburbs and regions.




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Let us indulge, then, the scenario of Morrison winning the next election. Victory would extend the Coalition’s spell in office to around a dozen years. This would be the second period of Coalition rule of more than a decade’s duration since John Howard defeated Paul Keating’s Labor government in March 1996.

To put it another way, Labor would have had just six years in office – with half of that time spent in minority government – in a quarter of a century.

Viewed in the longer term, a Morrison victory in 2021/2022 would further reinforce the Coalition’s electoral supremacy since the end of the second world war. The Liberal-National parties would have been in office for two-thirds of that 80-year period.

Conversely, Labor would have experienced only one extended period of government during that time: the Hawke-Keating era of 1983-96. Indeed, it would underscore that Bob Hawke’s dream of transforming Labor into Australia’s natural party of government has been unfulfilled, with his and Keating’s five consecutive electoral victories an aberration in an otherwise continuing pattern of Coalition dominance.

Why should this matter? One of the oldest axioms of Australian politics is that Labor is the party of “initiative” and its opponents the parties of “resistance”. While a generalisation, there is more than a kernel of truth in these categorisations.

Leaving aside the original foundational legislation of the early Commonwealth, which was produced by a combination of Liberal Protectionist and Labor ministries, Labor governments were the architects of the two national macro-policy settlements of last century. The governments of John Curtin and Ben Chifley (1941-49) initiated the post-war Keynesian welfarist order. The Hawke-Keating governments instigated the post-Keynesian or market-based economic order (softened by social wage measures).

The Curtin-Chifley and Hawke-Keating governments were, in other words, regime builders. In turn, the long-run Coalition governments that followed them, led by Robert Menzies and John Howard respectively, were consolidators of the paradigms originated by Labor.

The Hawke-Keating era of the 1980s, alongside the Curtin-Chifley years, was a time of regime building.
National Archives of Australia

Furthermore, in between the epochal Labor administrations of the 1940s and 1980s was Gough Whitlam’s government of 1972-75. A powerful modernising force, it pioneered a dizzying array of social and cultural reforms, among them universal healthcare.

Though relatively rare, Labor prime ministerships have been disproportionally significant in their transformational effects. However, the party’s most recent period of national government under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard disappointed in that respect.

Winning office on a small-target program and rapidly alienating colleagues with his imperious leadership style, Rudd’s prime ministership is best remembered for its management of the Global Financial Crisis and the apology to the Stolen Generations. But it left little policy imprint.

Gillard’s government ushered in major reforms headed by a price on carbon and the National Disability Insurance Scheme. The latter was arguably the most important social reform since universal healthcare. Yet the larger picture of the Rudd-Gillard years was one of debilitating internecine leadership conflict and squandered opportunity.




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In fact, the early 21st century has been mostly been a story of policy stasis, whether Labor or the Coalition has been in government. Discredited by the GFC and ill-equipped to meet the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic, the neo-liberal era has run out of puff. To date, though, there has been no coherent new settlement between citizen and state.

To be fair, history suggests transitions between one policy regime and another take time. There is often a lag between one order waning and the emergence of the next. Moreover, Australia is certainly not alone in currently enduring a period of policy ennui and confusion of direction.

Looking forward, however, there is a nagging doubt about whether Labor still possesses the creative capacity to be the party of initiative in Australian politics. At the 2019 election, it campaigned on a broad suite of policies, but lacked the language to describe the sum of those parts.

The past two years seem only to have deepened the party’s uncertainty about its mission. Again, this is not unprecedented. During the Menzies era, Labor took time to develop a new generation of leaders and ideas. And at least some of the bold reforms of the Hawke-Keating years were a response to contingency rather than forethought.

Burnt by the circumstances of its 2019 defeat, the probability is that Labor will run on a relatively constrained program whenever the next federal election is held. At some point, though, the party will have to answer whether this latest long wait for a Labor government has been worth it.

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Gould calls Poilievre a ‘fraudster’ over his carbon price warning

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OTTAWA – Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a “fraudster” this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a “nuclear winter.”

Gould was speaking just before the House of Commons is set to reopen following the summer break.

“What I heard yesterday from Mr. Poilievre was so over the top, so irresponsible, so immature, and something that only a fraudster would do,” she said from Parliament Hill.

On Sunday Poilievre said increasing the carbon price will cause a “nuclear winter,” painting a dystopian picture of people starving and freezing because they can’t afford food or heat due the carbon price.

He said the Liberals’ obsession with carbon pricing is “an existential threat to our economy and our way of life.”

The carbon price currently adds about 17.6 cents to every litre of gasoline, but that cost is offset by carbon rebates mailed to Canadians every three months. The Parliamentary Budget Office provided analysis that showed eight in 10 households receive more from the rebates than they pay in carbon pricing, though the office also warned that long-term economic effects could harm jobs and wage growth.

Gould accused Poilievre of ignoring the rebates, and refusing to tell Canadians how he would make life more affordable while battling climate change. The Liberals have also accused the Conservatives of dismissing the expertise of more than 200 economists who wrote a letter earlier this year describing the carbon price as the least expensive, most efficient way to lower emissions.

Poilievre is pushing for the other opposition parties to vote the government down and trigger what he calls a “carbon tax election.”

The recent decision by the NDP to break its political pact with the government makes an early election more likely, but there does not seem to be an interest from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to have it happen immediately.

Poilievre intends to bring a non-confidence motion against the government as early as this week but would likely need both the Bloc and NDP to support it.

Gould said she has no “crystal ball” over when or how often Poilievre might try to bring down the government

“I know that the end of the supply and confidence agreement makes things a bit different, but really all it does is returns us to a normal minority parliament,” she said. “And that means that we will work case-by-case, legislation-by-legislation with whichever party wants to work with us. I have already been in touch with all of the House leaders in the opposition parties and my job now is to make Parliament work for Canadians.”

She also insisted the government has listened to the concerns raised by Canadians, and received the message when the Liberals lost a Toronto byelection in June in seat the party had held since 1997.

“We certainly got the message from Toronto-St. Paul’s and have spent the summer reflecting on what that means and are coming back to Parliament, I think, very clearly focused on ensuring that Canadians are at the centre of everything that we do moving forward,” she said.

The Liberals are bracing, however, for the possibility of another blow Monday night, in a tight race to hold a Montreal seat in a byelection there. Voters in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun are casting ballots today to replace former justice minister David Lametti, who was removed from cabinet in 2023 and resigned as an MP in January.

The Conservatives and NDP are also in a tight race in Elmwood-Transcona, a Winnipeg seat that has mostly been held by the NDP over the last several decades.

There are several key bills making their way through the legislative process, including the online harms act and the NDP-endorsed pharmacare bill, which is currently in the Senate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Voters head to the polls for byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

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OTTAWA – Canadians in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood —Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.

The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in another byelection in Toronto earlier this summer, a loss that sent shock waves through the governing party and intensified calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Next phase of federal foreign interference inquiry to begin today in Ottawa

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OTTAWA – The latest phase of a federal inquiry into foreign interference is set to kick off today with remarks from commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue.

Several weeks of public hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key government officials took part in hearings earlier this year as the inquiry explored allegations that Beijing tried to meddle in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Hogue’s interim report, released in early May, said Beijing’s actions did not affect the overall results of the two general elections.

The report said while outcomes in a small number of ridings may have been affected by interference, this cannot be said with certainty.

Trudeau, members of his inner circle and senior security officials are slated to return to the inquiry in coming weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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