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Is Rivian Stock a Buy After the $5 Billion Volkswagen Investment?

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Rivian shares are soaring after a multibillion-dollar cash infusion.

The electric vehicle (EV) industry has not been particularly kind to investors, especially those who bet on Rivian Automotive (RIVN 3.73%). Its shares have lost around 90% of their value since going public three years ago amid rising competition and missed production targets.

But some recent good news have given the shares a lift. Let’s dig deeper into Rivian’s just-announced partnership with Volkswagen and what it could mean for the struggling automaker.

The Volkswagen deal

On June 25, Rivian and Volkswagen announced plans to create a joint venture to develop EV software and technologies for their respective automotive businesses.

The new entity will be equally owned by both companies. But as part of the deal, Volkswagen will take a $1 billion equity stake in Rivian, invest an additional $2 billion in Rivian shares in 2025 and 2026, and put $2 billion into the joint venture through a combination of cash payments and loans.

In total, the deal is worth $5 billion, with practically all the money coming out of Volkswagen’s pocketbook.

This agreement is another vote of confidence in Rivian’s technology and research capacity. And Volkswagen will join blue chip companies like Amazon and Ford Motor Company, which also have equity stakes in Rivian. The deal will also likely reduce Rivian’s software cost per vehicle through economies of scale, and Volkswagen seems to be footing most of the bill.

Volkswagen’s new equity stake in Rivian will dilute existing shareholders, technically reducing their claim on the company’s future earnings. But dilution isn’t necessarily negative when the new capital is used to create value, and that certainly seems to be the case here. Rivian’s shares have risen by over 20% in response to the announcement.

How does this fit into Rivian’s long-term outlook?

Rivian is in a difficult position. Macro-level challenges like high interest rates, rising competition, and consumer hesitation are battering the EV industry. And even big players like Ford’s Model E segment (which lost $1.3 billion in the first quarter) are not immune from the challenges.

Image source: Getty Images.

But unlike Ford Model E, Rivian is a stand-alone EV business that can’t rely on support from its parent company to subsidize its operating losses, which totaled $1.48 billion in the first quarter. These losses will quickly burn through Rivian’s roughly $7.9 billion in cash and short-term investments. The good news is the $2 billion Volkswagen partnership will help address this challenge for now. But over the long term, Rivian will likely need additional outside funding to maintain its operations.

While management expects the company to achieve its first gross profit (revenue minus direct production costs) this year, it could take several more quarters to cover overhead expenses like office salaries, advertising, and research and development and finally end the cash burn.

Is Rivian stock a buy?

Rivian’s new partnership with Volkswagen adds more strength to the company’s bull thesis by giving it much-needed cash in the near term while possibly reducing its long-term production and research costs.

With that said, I’m still not comfortable upgrading the stock from an (optimistic) hold to a buy because the future of the EV industry remains uncertain, even for large industry players. As an unprofitable company, Rivian will struggle to compete against its more well-capitalized rivals. And investors may want to wait for more quarters of positive data before taking a position in the stock.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Will Ebiefung has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Volkswagen Ag. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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