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Is Saudi Arabia's Ambitious Vision 2030 Plan Dead – OilPrice.com

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Is Saudi Arabia’s Ambitious Vision 2030 Plan Dead? | OilPrice.com

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Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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A $500-billion smart city. A $200-billion solar farm. Billions of dollars in investments in gas and petrochemicals. These were all facets of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030—perhaps the most ambitious economic diversification in the world. Now, that ambition is in tatters. Can Saudi Arabia pick up the pieces and truly diversify its economy away from oil, or are its plans dead in the water, leaving the Kingdom’s survival forever tied to oil revenues?

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s Aramco said it would shelve an investment of several billion dollars in Sempra Energy’s Port Arthur LNG terminal. It also said it would delay investments in a $20-billion refining and petrochemical project at home, at its Yanbu hub. The reason: cash conservation.

Earlier this year, Riyadh government sources told the Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia was not pursuing its $200-billion solar farm project it had conceived in partnership with Japan’s SoftBank. Nobody was working on the project, the sources said, and Riyadh was discussing a replacement with several smaller solar projects.

The $500-billion smart city project, Neom, is still on the table, it appears. The Kingdom’s oil ministry recently said it would help fund the project and make sure it was completed on time.

Neom is the flagship project of Vision 2030, Prince Mohammed’s brainchild aimed at reducing Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil revenues. Ironically, this diversification drive relied on precisely these oil revenues to materialize. And now that these revenues have been significantly reduced because of the effects the coronavirus pandemic had on oil demand, Prince Mohammed’s vision is under threat.

There was always some doubt Saudi Arabia would be able to pull all of these projects off. They were simply too expensive, even for its massive sovereign fund. Of course, it was never assumed that the Kingdom would finance all of these major initiatives by itself, but it did rely heavily on Aramco—on its revenues and, of course, its public listing.

The company went public last year but with half the shares that were initially supposed to be listed. It did well in the beginning, becoming the world’s most valuable company. The oil price crash, however, led to Aramco’s share price crash. Pretty much all oil stocks crashed this spring, so that was not unique to Aramco. But what was special about it is that a whole economic diversification program hinges on it—utterly and completely. Aramco also has hefty dividends to pay, but cash is now tight.

More projects are being delayed, too, projects that don’t have anything directly to do with Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification. These are projects that have to do with Aramco’s international expansion.

Related: Oil Rig Count Inches Higher Amid Price Plunge

The company is reviewing a $6.6-billion petrochemical production plan for its Motiva refinery in the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported this week, citing unnamed sources familiar with the company’s situation. The company is also freezing for a year its plans to boost oil production capacity to 13 million bpd. This decision, of course, is hardly surprising given the state of global supply and demand, and more importantly, the outlook for the latter. It is, nevertheless, telling of Aramco’s—and Riyadh’s—step back from their diversification ambitions.

It is an interesting development: a couple of years ago, there was concern among some observers that higher oil prices would discourage the Kingdom from pursuing its Vision 2030 diversification due to complacency, as history has proven time and again.

“When countries kick-start reform programs when oil prices are low, sometimes the enthusiasm wanes when commodity prices move higher. That is potentially a risk here. It will take continued focus on discipline to maintain many of those initiatives with higher oil prices,” Fitch Ratings’ global head of sovereign ratings said in 2017.

But the real threat to its grand diversification plans turned out to be exactly the opposite—lack of funds caused by low oil prices.

Perhaps Saudi Arabia’s enthusiasm did not exactly wane when prices were high: news of a multibillion-dollar project continued to flow in as the Kingdom sought to secure future markets for its main export product.

And then the second price crash in five years came.

For the second quarter of this year, Saudi Arabia booked a deficit of $29 billion. Its GDP is shrinking, as it is across the oil-rich and oil-dependent Gulf. Austerity measures are back, spending cuts are being made, and Aramco must pay a dividend of $75 billion as it promised when it listed 5 percent of its stock in December last year. The company has to keep up these annual payments for the next five years. It doesn’t have the luxury of cutting these dividends like the international oil majors because its majority shareholder is the Saudi government and Aramco is its primary income source.

With all these stressors, is Vision 2030 still on the horizon?

It is, but it may well stay there like a mirage. A low-price environment is the right one for diversification efforts, but these efforts in Saudi Arabia are incredibly costly because of the scale of the program. Perhaps Riyadh will choose flexibility and substitute some of these multibillion-dollar projects for smaller ones, the way it reportedly did with its solar plans.

That might be the most sensible path to take, after accepting an economy cannot change overnight, even if you have hundreds of billions of dollars to spend on this change. Economic diversification takes not just money but time, as well as realistic planning. Hopefully, the pandemic taught the world’s second-largest oil producer a valuable lesson about unforeseeable events and their effect on diversification plans.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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HSBC completes sale of Canadian unit to RBC – The Globe and Mail

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HSBC Holdings said it completed the $13.5-billion sale of its Canadian unit, HSBC Bank Canada, to Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) on Thursday.

The transaction will result in the recognition of an estimated gain of $4.9-billion in the first quarter of 2024, HSBC said in a statement on Friday.

RBC previously said the acquisition, which merges Canada’s biggest and seventh-biggest lenders, will boost its domestic business as well as its position on the global stage.

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HSBC Canada’s branches and offices will open for business on Monday, April 1 as RBC locations, RBC said in a separate statement.

The merger, RBC’s biggest, overcame opposition from environment and anti-monopoly groups as well as conservatives, who lamented the increasing concentration of the industry and the possibility of higher fees for consumers.

Deals of this size in the banking sector have not been attempted in Canada since the early 1990s when RBC’s bid for Bank of Montreal was blocked by regulators.

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US February PCE core inflation +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expected – ForexLive

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US core PCE yy

  • Prior month 2.8% (revised to 2.9%)
  • PCE core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expected (unrounded +0.261%)
  • Prior m/m core +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
  • Headline PCE +2.5% y/y vs +2.5% expected (prior 2.4%).
  • Headline m/m +0.3% vs +0.4% expected (unrounded +0.333%)
  • 6 month core annualized 2.9% vs 2.6% prior
  • Full report

Consumer spending and consumer income for February:

  • Personal income +0.3% versus +0.4% expected. Prior month 0.3%.
  • Personal spending +0.8% versus +0.5% expected. Prior month +0.2%
  • Real personal spending +0.4% vs -0.1% last month (revised to -0.2%)

The revisions to the January data are a touch higher but it didn’t bump up the Feb y/y numbers.

Overall, it’s a tad hot but the dollar is a tad softer, perhaps focusing on the lower headline m/m reading.

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Looking deeper at spending, goods rose 0.5% with services up 0.9%. On the inflation side, goods prices were down 0.2% y/y while services prices rose 3.8% y/y.

US core PCE mm

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What’s open and closed Good Friday, Easter Monday in Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Region – Global News

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The Easter long weekend is upon us, bringing a rare four-day holiday to some in the Hamilton area. Several businesses and services will be closed on Good Friday (March 29), Easter Sunday (March 31) or Easter Monday (April 1).

Here’s a list of some things that will or will not be operating in Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Region.

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Administrative offices: Offices are closed on Friday and Monday.

Licensing and bylaw services: Licensing and bylaw phone queue line will be closed on Friday and Monday. Service will resume on Tuesday.

Green bin, garbage and recycling: No collection on Good Friday. Friday’s pickup will occur on Saturday (March 31). Monday will be a regular collection day (April 1). The city says all materials must be at the curb by 7 a.m. Community recycling centres and transfer stations will be closed Friday and Monday.

HSR bus: Buses will operate on a Sunday/holiday schedule Friday and a regular schedule on Monday.

GO Transit: Trains and buses are operating on a Sunday schedule Friday.

ATS DARTS: Service will be operating with holiday service hours on Friday and Monday. Subscription trips on DARTS, with the exception of dialysis, are cancelled for Friday and Monday. ATS customer service will also be closed on Friday and Monday.

Ontario Works: The program, including the special supports, will be closed Friday and Monday. Phone service will resume on Tuesday.

Recreation centres: Closed on Friday and Monday.

Hamilton civic museums: Dundurn National Historic Site, the Hamilton Military Museum and the Hamilton Museum of Steam and Technology will be closed on Friday and Monday.

Tourism Hamilton visitor information centre: Closed Friday to Monday.

Hamilton Public Library: All HPL branches are closed on Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Easter Monday. Branches are open on Saturday and regular hours resume Tuesday, April 2

Social services: All Ontario Works offices, special supports and the housing services office will be closed on Friday and Monday.

Senior centres: Closed Friday and Sunday. Senior clubs will be running modified program schedules from Friday to Monday.

Arenas: Closed to public programming Friday, Sunday and Monday.

Animal services: Closed Good Friday, Sunday and Easter Monday.

Canadian Warplane Heritage Museum in Mount Hope: Open Good Friday, Saturday and Easter Sunday. Closed Easter Monday.

Burlington

Government offices: Local government such as city hall, municipal offices and facilities will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday.


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Administrative services: Services including parks, roads and forestry will be closed on Friday and Monday. Only snow removal and urgent services will be provided.

Animal Shelter and Control: Closed all weekend, Friday through Monday. Emergencies can be called in to 905-335-7777.

Recreation centres: Some city pools, arenas and community centres will be operational on a limited schedule. Visit burlington.ca/dropinandplay for details. Some outdoor recreation facilities will also be open, weather permitting. Visit burlington.ca/outdoorplay for more information. Tyandaga Golf Course will be closed. The tentative season opener is set for April 6.

Halton Provincial Offences Court: Closed on Friday and Monday.

Free parking: Available Friday and Monday in the downtown core in municipal lots, on-street and in the parking garage, however, the Waterfront parking lots (east and west) do not provide free parking on statutory holidays. Parking exemptions are required to park overnight on city streets and for longer than five hours. Visit burlington.ca/parkingexemptions for more.

Burlington Transit: Transit will operate a holiday schedule Sunday. The downtown transit terminal, specialized dispatch and the administration office will be closed on March 29. Monday is a regular schedule.

Niagara Region

Government offices: City halls, the Enterprise Centre and administration offices are all closed on Good Friday. Some offices, like St. Catharines, will reopen on Easter Monday.

Parks, recreation and culture services: All City recreation centres are closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Administration offices are all closed on Friday. Some will be closed on Monday. St. Catharines Kiwanis Aquatics Centre is closed Friday, but open on Saturday. Seymour-Hannah Sports and Entertainment Centre is closed Friday, but open regular hours through the weekend and Monday.

Community centres: All older adult centres and arenas will either be closed or have reduced hours on Friday, Sunday and Monday.

St. Catharines Museum; Welland Canals Centre: Both facilities will be closed on Good Friday but open the rest of the long weekend between 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Niagara Regional Transit: Both St. Catharines and Niagara Falls buses will operate on a holiday schedule for Good Friday. Regional, Fort Erie and Welland service will not be running Friday. The agency will have regular hours on Easter Sunday and Monday.

Canada Post: No collection or mail delivery on Monday. Most post offices operated by the private sector will also be closed during business hours.

Grocery stores: Major grocery stores like Fortinos, Metro, FreshCo and No Frills will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

Shoppers Drug Mart: Some locations in the city will be open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday, but not all. Holiday hours can be seen on the Shoppers store locator map.

Rexall: Some outlets are open on a holiday schedule, but not all. Visit the Rexall website for store hours.

Malls: All major shopping centres in Hamilton, Burlington, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls will be closed on Good Friday. Exceptions include:

  • Outlet Collection at Niagara Falls: Open from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
  • CF Toronto Eaton Centre: Open noon to 7 p.m.
  • Toronto Premium Outlets in Halton Hills: Open Friday from 9:30 a.m. to 7 p.m. and Sunday from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.
  • Pacific Mall in Toronto: Open between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m.
  • Vaughan Mills will be open from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.

In Toronto, retailers in designated tourist areas such as Yorkville, downtown Yonge, Queen’s Quay West and the Distillery District can stay open Good Friday, according to City of Toronto bylaws.

Walmart: All Walmarts in the GTHA will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday except the Niagara Falls Supercentre on Oakwood Drive, which is open between 7 a.m. and 11 p.m. on those days.

Alcohol

The Beer Store: All stores will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

LCBO: All stores will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

More on Canada

Wine Rack: Most Hamilton locations will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday except for the Wilson Street West location in Ancaster and the Guelph Line outlet in Burlington.

Wilson Street will be open Noon to 5 p.m. on Good Friday and 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Easter Sunday. Guelph Line will open 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Friday and Sunday.

Tourist destinations

Niagara Falls: Some Niagara Falls attractions are closed during the early spring, including the Whirlpool Aero Car and Wildplay Whirlpool Adventure Course, and the White Water Walk.

However, some, like the Niagara City Cruises, Journey Behind the Falls, Niagara Falls History Museum and The Exchange, and the Niagara Power Station are open and will be operating on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Hours of operation can be seen on the Niagara Parks website.

The Butterfly Conservatory will be open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.

Toronto: Most Toronto attractions are either closed or have adjusted hours on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

  • The Hockey Hall of Fame will be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
  • The Toronto Zoo will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.
  • The Ontario Science Centre will be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
  • Ripley’s Aquarium will be open from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m.
  • The Art Gallery of Ontario will be open from 10:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
  • The Royal Ontario Museum will be open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.
  • The Aga Khan Museum will be open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.

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