Is Toronto real estate the new gold? Home sales soar as global financial markets tank - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Is Toronto real estate the new gold? Home sales soar as global financial markets tank – The Globe and Mail

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Every financial market you can think of is in an uproar right now, but not Toronto real estate.

Sales of houses and condos for the first week of March were up 47 per cent over the same period last year and average prices rose 18 per cent, said John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty, a real estate brokerage that specializes in data analysis.

“Sales are still strong, there are still lots of bidding wars, open houses are still packed,” Mr. Pasalis said. “There’s no slowing down right now, from what we’re seeing at least.”

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Stocks have fallen hard since the last week of February in Canada and globally because of fears that the coronavirus will hurt corporate profits, and interest rates are plunging because of fears that the economy will fall into recession. Gold used to be the financial asset people turned to provide a storehouse of value in uncertain times, but gold prices have been up and down since the stock and bond markets turned volatile.

Might home buyers be thinking along the lines that Toronto housing is the new gold? “Kind of – it feels like that,” Mr. Pasalis said. “There’s a mood now where people want to buy investment properties. It’s like this real need to stock up on as much real estate as possible.”

Toronto real estate could well be a lagging indicator, which means that the effects of what’s happening in global financial markets won’t be noticeable until weeks from now. But Mr. Pasalis said there’s a sense among buyers, fed by commentary from economists and the housing industry, that the only thing to worry about in the Toronto market is a lack of properties on sale.

“The problem with this is that it makes people think prices can only go up,” he said. “Of course, that’s not the case.”

Mr. Pasalis sees vulnerability in the fact that condo prices are soaring as a result of buying by investors who plan to rent their units, but growth in monthly rents has faded. This could make it harder to generate the monthly income needed to carry the mortgage on an investment property.

The market for single-family homes has its own problems. “It’s not healthy,” Mr. Pasalis said. “It’s so competitive and we’re seeing a lot of irrational prices being paid. People are offering prices that make zero sense.”

Concern about the economy falling into recession has led to a sharp decline in interest rates for all kinds of borrowing – government bonds as well consumer loans, lines of credit and mortgages. But home buyers and people in the real estate business don’t see these rate cuts as a warning sign about a lack of security for jobs and incomes, Mr. Pasalis said. “These cuts actually get people excited about the market.”

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The last time stocks plunged on a sustained global basis was 2008-09, which turned out to be a great time to get into the housing market. Owing to rapidly falling interest rates, houses became much more affordable. Prices then soared in many cities – enough so that early buyers have seen the value of their home double or triple over the years.

If the coronavirus burns out soon and the global economy rebounds, Toronto house and condo prices could rise enough to justify the aggressive buying going on right now. But if there is an economic slowdown or recession, housing could very well be hammered even if rates fall to zero.

In 2008-09, there was a deep well of consumer borrowing power for the housing market to draw from. Since then, people have borrowed nearly to the point of saturation. The credit monitoring firm TransUnion Canada says average non-mortgage debt balances fell 0.5 per cent on a year-over-year basis in the final three months of 2019. Mortgage debt soared 17 per cent, but can this be sustained in a weakening economy?

Mr. Pasalis says he believes the big risk to the Toronto market is neither what’s happening in financial markets nor the coronavirus, unless it gets bad enough to cause a lockdown in the city. To him, the bigger problems are in the market itself.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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