Investors have got the jitters as a big week unfolds — several central bank meetings including the Fed, earnings from Apple and Amazon.com, and jobs data. Yikes.
Any investor out there who isn’t nervous, perhaps should recheck his gut, says our call of the day, from Standard Chartered’s global head of research, Eric Robertsen.
“We do not expect an extreme economic hard landing, but we think the proverbial Goldilocks scenario is too optimistic,” Robertsen told clients in a Sunday note, adding that they are “now turning cautious on risky assets.”
Robertsen explains the two sides of an important market debate right now — the just-right Goldilocks crowd and the “recessionist” bears.
The former is growing confident with their view that inflation and central bank tightening is nearing a peak and any recession will be “shallow and short-lived,” he explains. The reduction of that “central-bank driven left-side tail risk” matters more to markets than any slowdown, that side also says.
“A central bank pause, declining inflation, and attractive yields and valuations will prompt investors to reduce their underweight exposure and increase their allocation to risky assets, the Goldilocks camp argues,” he said.
He says the varied year-to-date performance across asset classes reveals 2022’s laggards are 2023’s outperformers so far. “This suggests that short-covering may be a significant contributor to performance so far, rather than overwhelming faith in the Goldilocks economy.
“The outperforming sectors are distinctly pro-cyclical – which is surprising with recession themes all the rage,” he says, noting that “ominous message about the health of the labor market” from tech job cuts.
On the other side, the bears say investors are overstating a decline in volatility and understating economic risks, writes Robertsen, who is on board here, hence his caution on riskier assets. The so-called fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX VIX,
+6.75%
didn’t register new highs last year when stocks tumbled, leading some to say it was a broken indicator.
“Real-time indicators are showing a loss of economic momentum, while others – such as the U.S. labor market – have yet to reflect growing economic headwinds,” he said. “Underlying the bear case is the view that we have yet to feel the full cumulative impact of the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades.”
He says “volatility measures have fallen too far and the improvement in risky assets is due for a pause.” The catalyst for this pause could be any number of things: aggressive rate cuts priced into the U.S. money-market curve that will be unwound, a too-tight move from the European Central Bank or even an actual tightening from Bank of Japan, for example, said Robertsen.
Should the Fed disappoint markets this week
Risk assets may also struggle with the Fed’s message this week if it fails to reassure the rate-hiking cycle is complete, says Robertse,n who expects the central bank will push back on “aggressive easing priced into the money-market curve.”
But lighting up the Empire State Building in Eagles green was a step too far, some New Yorkers were fuming.
Boris Johnson says Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to take him out as the war in Ukraine began.
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It’s common knowledge that companies don’t hire the most qualified candidates. Employers hire the person they believe will deliver the best value in exchange for their payroll cost.
Since most job seekers know the above, I’m surprised that so few mention their Employee Value Proposition (EVP). Most job seekers list their education, skills, and experience without substantiating them and expect employers to determine whether they can benefit their company; hence, most resumes and LinkedIn profiles are just a list of opinions—borderline platitudes—that are meaningless and, therefore, have no value. Job seekers need to better explain, along with providing evidence, how they’ll contribute to an employer’s success.
Employers don’t hire opinions (read: talk is cheap); they hire results.
You’re not offering anything tangible when you claim:
I’m a great communicator.
I’m detail oriented.
I’m a team player.
Tangible:
“At Global Dynamics, I held quarterly town hall meetings with my 22 sales reps, highlighting our accomplishments, identifying opportunity areas, and recognizing outstanding performers.”
“For eight years, I managed Vandelay Industries IT department, overseeing a staff of 18 and a 12-million-dollar budget while coordinating cross-specialty projects. My strong attention to detail is why I never exceeded budget.”
“While working at Cyberdyne Systems, I was part of the customer service team, consisting of nine of us, striving to improve our response time. Through collaboration and sharing of best practices, we reduced our average response time from 48 to 12 business hours, resulting in a 35% improvement in customer feedback ratings.”
These examples of tangible answers provide employers with what they most want to hear from candidates but rarely do; what value the candidate will bring to the company. Typically, job seekers present their skills, experience, and unsubstantiated opinions and expect recruiters and employers to figure out their value, which is a lazy practice.
Getting hired isn’t based on “I have an MBA in Marketing and Sales,” “I’ve been a web designer for over 15 years,” “I’m young, beautiful and energetic,” blah, blah, blah. Likewise, being rejected isn’t based on “I’m overqualified,” “I’m too old,” “I don’t have enough education,” blah, blah, blah. Getting hired depends entirely on showing employers that you can add value and substance to their company; that you’ll serve a purpose.
When you articulate a solid value offer, the “blah, blah, blah” doesn’t matter. Job seekers focus too much on the “blah, blah, blah,” and when not hired, they say, “It’s not me, it’s…” The biggest mistake I see job seekers make is focusing on the “blah, blah, blah”—their experience and education—believing this is what interests employers. Hiring managers are more interested in whether you can solve the problems the position exists to solve than in your education and experience.
Not impressive: Education
Impressive: A track record of achieving tangible results.
You aren’t who you say you are; you are what you do.
If you want to be somebody who works hard, you have to actually work hard. If you want to be somebody who goes to the gym, you actually have to go to the gym. If you want to be a good friend, spouse, or colleague, you have to actually be a good friend, spouse, or colleague. Actions build reputations, not words.
The biggest challenge job seekers face today is differentiating themselves. To stand out and be memorable, don’t be like most job seekers, someone who’s all talk and no action. Any recruiter or hiring manager will tell you that the job market is heavily populated with job seekers who talk themselves up, talk a “good game” about everything they can “supposedly” do, drop names, etc., but have nothing to show for it.
More than ever, employers want to hear candidates offer a value proposition summarizing what value they bring. If you’re looking for a low-hanging fruit method to differentiate yourself, do what job seekers hardly ever do and make a hard-to-ignore value proposition.
Increase sales: “Based on my experience managing Regina and Saskatoon for PharmaKorp, I’m confident that I can increase BioGen’s sales by no less than 25% in Winnipeg and the surrounding area by the end of 2025.”
Reduce cost: “During my 12 years as Taco Town’s head of purchasing, I renegotiated contracts with key suppliers, resulting in 15% cost savings, saving the company over $450,000 annually. I know I can do the same for The Pasta House.”
Increase customer satisfaction:“During my time at Globex Corporation, I established a systematic feedback mechanism that enabled customers to share their experiences. This led to targeted improvements, increasing our Net Promoter Score by 15 points. I can increase Dunder Mifflin’s net promoter score.”
Save time: “As Zap Delivery’s dispatcher, I implemented advanced routing software that analyzed traffic patterns, reducing average delivery times by 20%. My implementation of this software at Froggy’s Delivery can reduce your delivery times by at least 20%, if not more.”
If you want to achieve job search success as soon as possible, structure your job search with a single thread that’s evident and consistent throughout your résumé, LinkedIn profile, cover letters and especially during interviews; clearly convey what difference you’ll make to the employer.
Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.
Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.
The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.
Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.
The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.
The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.
The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.
The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.
Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.
In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.
“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.
As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.
Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.
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