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'It's going to disrupt everything': Blockades threaten to gum up Canadian economy: Cenovus CEO – Financial Post

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CALGARY – Protests and blockades rolling across the country threaten to “gum up” the Canadian economy and could potentially derail recent improvements in Alberta’s oil industry, according to Alex Pourbaix, chief executive officer of Cenovus Energy Inc.

The arrest and removal of protestors hindering work on a natural gas pipeline in British Columbia in the past week has sparked a wave of protests and blockades by Indigenous and environmental groups across the country, which have forced some ports to close and railway companies to stop running trains across busy corridors.

The timing of the protests and the blockades has created a potential risk for major Alberta oil producers, which have been ramping up oil-by-rail shipments in recent months because all existing export pipelines are full and the economic case for using the railways has improved.

“If these protests continue to block up ports, this isn’t just going to disrupt the flow of energy, it’s going to disrupt everything – grain, potash, chlorine, you name it,” Pourbaix told the Financial Post on Wednesday. The company told investors at its first-quarter earnings that it had shipped an average of 106,000 barrels of oil per day on railway cars at the end of 2019.

“I think it’s really incumbent on the various levels of government to get together to find a solution because it’s going to really gum up the Canadian economy if (the protests) are allowed to continue for any length of time,” he said.

Pourbaix said the company had the option to ship even more oil on rail and moved 120,000 bpd on trains in January. The company has been steadily ramping up its shipments by rail, which has allowed the company to get allowances to surpass the Alberta government’s mandatory production limits.

“In a world where we aren’t able to move oil by rail, that would eventually affect our ability to utilize (government credits) to maximize our production,” Pourbaix said. “We haven’t seen a significant impact on our rail movements yet.”

Still, the risk of a fall in oil-by-rail shipments to Alberta’s economy is significant.

Total oil shipments by rail out of Canada reached 297,000 bpd in November, the last data available from the Canadian Energy Regulator.

We’re going to be cautious and we’re going to keep the rail program available

Alex Pourbaix, CEO, Cenovus Energy

National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood said in a research note Wednesday that total crude by rail movements out of Canada have now reached 345,000 bpd and “continues to play a meaningful role in the (Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin) egress strategy.”

He noted that Cenovus – as well as companies such as Gibson Energy Inc. – have proposed building diluent recovery units, which would allow oil producers to fit more bitumen onto trains with less blending agents, effectively boosting the efficiency of trains moving oilsands crude.

A final investment decision by Cenovus on that project could come later this year, which would entrench oil-by-rail shipments for the future.

Regardless of whether that project is built, crude-by-rail export numbers could jump by a third after the Alberta government announced late Tuesday it had sold off contracts to move 120,000 bpd on railway cars.

As a result of the transaction, the government incurred a loss of $1.3 billion. The UCP government said the loss is smaller than the $1.8 billion it had estimated earlier.

Given protests this week and civil disobedience planned for under-construction pipelines, Pourbaix said he’s encouraged by recent progress on Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3, the Crown-owned Trans Mountain project and TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline, but doesn’t count recent court decisions as a total victory.

“We’re not going to count those chickens before they hatch. We’re going to be cautious and we’re going to keep the rail program available,” he said.

• Email: gmorgan@nationalpost.com | Twitter:

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Vladimir Putin is in a painful economic bind – The Economist

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Vladimir Putin is in a painful economic bind  The Economist



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Which items will be tax-free under the Liberals’ promised GST/HST break?

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The government on Thursday announced a sweeping promise to make groceries, children’s clothing, Christmas trees, restaurant meals and more free from GST/HST between Dec. 14 and Feb. 15.

“Our government can’t set prices at checkout, but we can put more money in people’s pockets,” Trudeau said at a press conference announcing the measures.

The government says removing GST from these goods for a two-month period would save $100 for a family that spends $2,000 on those goods during that time. For those in provinces with HST, a family spending $2,000 would save $260.

Thursday’s announcement also included a rebate for Canadians who worked in 2023 and made less than $150,000, totalling $250 per person.

Here are the items that will be GST/HST-free if the Liberals’ legislation passes.

Groceries

Many grocery items are already tax-free. The Canada Revenue Agency considers most food and beverages to be “basic” grocery items, such as produce, bread, cereal, canned and frozen food, eggs, coffee, milk, and meat.

However, certain categories, like carbonated drinks, candies and snack foods, are taxed.

The government’s tax break will apply to certain items that normally are subject to tax.

These include prepared foods such as vegetable trays and pre-made meals, as well as snacks such as chips, candy and granola bars.

Carbonated beverages, water bottles fruit juices and juice crystals are included, as are ice cream products and baked desserts like cakes and pies.

The government says its tax break will mean “essentially all food” will be GST/HST-free.

Alcohol

The tax break will also apply to alcoholic beverages below seven per cent alcohol by volume, including beer, wine, cider, and pre-mixed drinks.

Normally, all alcoholic drinks are taxed.

Restaurants

Restaurant meals will also be subject to the tax break. It will apply whether you’re dining in, taking food to go, or ordering delivery.

Children’s items

Children’s clothing, including baby bibs, socks, hats and footwear, will qualify for the tax break. So will children’s diapers and car seats.

Children’s footwear and clothing used exclusively for sports or recreational activities will not be included in the tax break. This includes costumes.

Children’s toys will be included in the tax break as long as they’re designed for use by children under 14 years old. These could include board games, dolls, card games, Lego, Plasticine and teddy bears.

Printed goods

Print newspapers will be included in the tax break, but electronic or digital publications will not.

Most flyers, magazines, inserts and periodicals will be excluded.

Printed books will be included in the tax break, including religious scripture. Audio books where 90 per cent or more of the recording is a reading of a printed book are included.

Printed items that aren’t subject to the tax break include magazines where advertisements take up more than five per cent of total printed space, sales catalogues and brochures, books designed for writing on, event programs, agendas and directories.

Other

Christmas trees, natural or artificial, will be included in the tax break.

Puzzles and video game consoles are also included.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 21, 2024.

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In Russia's War Economy, The Warning Lights Are Blinking – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

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In Russia’s War Economy, The Warning Lights Are Blinking  Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty



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