It's Not Over. Experts Warn of New COVID Wave - Welland Tribune | Canada News Media
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It's Not Over. Experts Warn of New COVID Wave – Welland Tribune

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As British Columbia ends mask mandates and other pandemic measures, an independent group of experts warned Thursday the province could face a second, smaller Omicron wave within months.

The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group, composed of independent experts and academics, urged the government to authorize fourth vaccine doses for high-risk people and improve ventilation for essential services to blunt a potential sixth wave fuelled by the even more transmissible BA.2 sub-variant.

“With Canada having moved away from mask requirements and other mandated safety measures, there is a need to create safer indoor spaces, especially for those at higher risk,” the group’s report said.

COVID-19 cases among those 70-plus have dropped to less than a fifth of the peak of Omicron in January, according to the new report.

The drop in cases has been even more pronounced among younger age groups, but is difficult to quantify because most under 70 are no longer eligible for PCR testing.

But while B.C. will likely see short-term stability in case levels, the modelling group warns waning immunity from booster doses could see the BA.2 sub-variant fuel another Omicron wave nearing 1,500 daily reported cases by the end of April.

Omicron’s crest saw 4,078 daily cases reported on Dec. 31.

“The COVID-19 trajectory in B.C. over the next month depends strongly on how fast waning occurs and whether people continue to abide by safety measures, even if they are no longer required,” the report said.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said last week that B.C. remains vulnerable to future variants that may transmit more easily or evade protection afforded by vaccines.

“Those are the things that we don’t yet know,” she said as she announced the end of the mask mandate March 10.

More than half of cases are now caused by the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron, whose share of daily cases rose steadily through February and has now stabilized, Canada-wide data shows.

The risks of another wave are mitigated by the immunity British Columbians have from vaccination or previous infection, Henry and the group agree.

But they remain a concern for people who are considered high risk, including those over 70 and who are immunocompromised. The vast majority of high-risk and older people received their boosters before Dec. 31, almost three months ago.

According to reports from the United Kingdom and B.C.’s own figures, people who are unvaccinated are 10 times more likely to be hospitalized as a result of Omicron than those who are vaccinated.

But three to four months after a booster shot, that protection is cut in half.

Booster efficacy against infection from Omicron also drops sharply in the same timeframe.

“Many people in B.C., especially those most susceptible to severe health impacts of COVID-19, received boosters more than three months ago and are now experiencing declining levels of protection,” said the report.

The group recommended B.C. follow advice from Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization to authorize a fourth dose for immunocompromised individuals three months after their third dose.

“The option of a fourth dose, 3 to 4 months following a third booster dose, would reduce hospitalization risks for those most susceptible to severe COVID-19 reaction,” the report said.

Ultimately, the group warned, the impacts of the BA.2 sub-variant will be determined by how many people continue to mask, limit gatherings and how quickly booster immunity wanes or is bolstered by fourth doses.

“While the COVID-19 situation is good and improving, B.C. faces a number of short-term risks,” the report said.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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