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It’s Time For A Technical Oil Trade

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Regular readers will know, as will anyone that has ever attended one of my instructional courses, that I very rarely arrive at a trade idea just by looking at a chart. Rather, I prefer to arrive at an idea in a “top down” style, starting with a big picture view of the global economy, then deciding which energy commodity or stocks will be most impacted. Only then do I look at charts, to find things that are poised to break out of a pattern and to find logical exit points for the position I am looking to put on.

Sometimes, though, even a market that is really about fundamentals is in balance, and then technical levels and patterns take on much greater importance. That is the case right now with crude. A look at the chart for WTI futures (CL) below shows a narrowing wedge, which indicates the kind of balance I am talking about, but a simple Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the next move of a couple of dollars or so in price will be quite significant.

There are two ways of looking at the waves marked by the gold arrows.

The first is that we are just entering wave three of a large bearish pattern. If that is the case, then we can expect oil to head significantly lower over the next few weeks as that wave develops and crude drops below the channel support at around $72. If, on the other hand, you treat the first gold arrow as just a range-setting move, then we are currently in the second, correctional wave of a new bullish pattern. If that…

Regular readers will know, as will anyone that has ever attended one of my instructional courses, that I very rarely arrive at a trade idea just by looking at a chart. Rather, I prefer to arrive at an idea in a “top down” style, starting with a big picture view of the global economy, then deciding which energy commodity or stocks will be most impacted. Only then do I look at charts, to find things that are poised to break out of a pattern and to find logical exit points for the position I am looking to put on.

Sometimes, though, even a market that is really about fundamentals is in balance, and then technical levels and patterns take on much greater importance. That is the case right now with crude. A look at the chart for WTI futures (CL) below shows a narrowing wedge, which indicates the kind of balance I am talking about, but a simple Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the next move of a couple of dollars or so in price will be quite significant.

There are two ways of looking at the waves marked by the gold arrows.

The first is that we are just entering wave three of a large bearish pattern. If that is the case, then we can expect oil to head significantly lower over the next few weeks as that wave develops and crude drops below the channel support at around $72. If, on the other hand, you treat the first gold arrow as just a range-setting move, then we are currently in the second, correctional wave of a new bullish pattern. If that is the case, then we will turn higher again soon and break through the resistance at around $82.

The levels to watch are marked by the white horizontal lines added to the second view of the chart, at $80.62, the high from February 13th, and $76.52, the low from February 9th.

A break of either of those levels will prompt me to trade with the momentum, short on a break of the support or long should we move above the resistance. Those levels will decide if we are in a bearish or bullish pattern, but until then, any directional trade would be the result of just guesswork.

This is a trade signal and style that is almost the opposite of what I usually prefer in several ways. Not only do I rarely trade base a trade solely on the chart as I mentioned, but I also tend to favor a contrarian style over momentum. This, though, is different.

Crude is stuck in a rut for a reason. Supply is still quite tight given OPEC policy and the continued Russian war in Ukraine, but seems to be in balance with current demand. However, there are questions about maintaining the current level of demand for oil. Central banks around the world are trying to slow growth to combat inflation, but there is always a danger that they will be too successful in that and will force major economies, and therefore the world, into a painful recession. So, the next fundamental move will be dictated by something that nobody has yet been able to figure out, how much pain developed economies will be able to bear.

So, the market is waiting for a signal from itself as to where the next big move will take us, and when enough people are focused on a level, or two in this case, a break of it can cause a quite sharp follow-on move. That could come in either direction here, and which direction it is will probably depend on traders’ opinions formed on economic data. I don’t want to guess whether that will be positive or negative at this point, so I am content to sit on my hands and wait for a move either above $80.62 or below $76.52 before joining in, then just going with the flow.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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