Japan admits overstating economic data for nearly a decade - Al Jazeera English | Canada News Media
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Japan admits overstating economic data for nearly a decade – Al Jazeera English

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The Japanese government overstated construction orders data received from builders for years, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday, an admission that could dent the credibility of official statistics widely used by investors and economists.

It was not clear why the government started the practice of rewriting the data. It is also unclear how gross domestic product (GDP) figures may have been affected, though analysts expected any effect to be minimal, particularly as the builders involved were likely to be smaller firms.

“It is regrettable that such a thing has happened,” Kishida said. “The government will examine as soon as possible what steps it can take to avoid such an incident from happening again.”

He made the comment in a parliamentary session after the Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism had been “rewriting” data received from about 12,000 select companies since 2013 at a pace of about 10,000 entries per year.

Kishida said “improvements” had been made to the figures since January 2020 and that there was no direct impact on gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fiscal years 2020 and 2021.

While the effect on past GDP numbers may be small, the revelation is likely to raise questions about the reliability of data that is a cornerstone for economists and investors looking to understand and forecast trends in the world’s third-largest economy.

It is also not the first time that issues have been raised about government data, including a flaw in health ministry data in 2018.

“The biggest problem is not the effect on the GDP per se but the damage to reliability of [official] statistics,” said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.

“We can’t help doubting this kind of issue could happen across government ministries,” Sakai said.

‘Sloppy’

The survey compiles public and private construction orders which in the 2020 fiscal year totalled roughly 80 trillion yen ($700bn), and is among data used to calculate GDP.

For the survey, the ministry collects monthly orders data from construction companies through local prefecture authorities.

Companies that were late in submitting data would often send in several months’ worth of figures at once, the Asahi Shimbun said. In these instances, the ministry would instruct local authorities to rewrite the orders for the combined months as the figure for the latest, single month.

“Overall GDP data is unlikely to change much,” said Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

Considering Japan has hundreds of thousands of construction companies, the ratio of those concerned is very small, he said.

“How much influence do they have? The kind of sloppy company – which puts out numbers late – is probably not a big one.”

Land Minister Tetsuo Saito, a member of the Komeito party – the junior partner of the ruling coalition – confirmed the practice in parliament, calling it “extremely regrettable”.

Asked about the issue, the government’s top spokesperson said only that the land ministry had been instructed to analyse “as soon as possible” what led to the practice.

“We will first wait for the results of that investigation,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a news conference when asked whether past GDP figures, the government’s monthly economic report or other data may need to be revised.

The rewriting of the data, which may be in breach of law, continued until this March, the Asahi Shimbun said.

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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