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Japan exports sink again in June, raises economic risks at home and overseas – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s exports suffered a double-digit decline for the fourth month in a row in June as the coronavirus pandemic took a heavy toll on global demand, reinforcing expectations that the economy has sunk into its deepest recession in decades.

U.S.-bound Japanese shipments nearly halved again due to plunging demand for cars and autoparts, while exports to China remained weak, pointing to the absence of a strong growth engine in the global economy.

Global demand for cars and other durable goods has sunk since March as the pandemic prompted many countries to lockdown, forcing businesses to shut and people to stay at home.

Though more countries have now started re-opening their economies, the data could diminish hopes for a quick rebound in global demand and Japan’s export-led economy, analysts say.

“Exports are likely to seesaw for the time being,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, citing a renewed rise in virus cases in Japan and the United States.

“If domestic and external demand remain sluggish for a prolonged period, supply capacity could be slashed, triggering a jump in bankruptcies and job losses in the latter half of this fiscal year.”

Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed on Monday that Japan’s exports plummeted 26.2% in June from a year earlier, bigger than a 24.9% decline seen by economists in a Reuters poll. It followed a 28.3% fall in May — the worst downturn since September 2009.

The slump was aggravated by a big annual decline in U.S.-bound car exports, Japan’s main export item.

Shipments to the United States – Japan’s key market – dived 46.6%, due to 63.3% decline in shipments of automobiles, 56% drop in airplane engines and 58.3% fall in car parts.

In 2018, the United States was Japan’s largest export market, followed closely by China, and led by cars as well as motors, car parts and chip-making machinery.

Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, fell 0.2% in the year to June, as declines in shipments of chip-making machinery and chemical materials more than offset increase in nonferrous metal and car shipments.

Shipments to Asia, which account for more than half of Japanese exports, declined 15.3%, and exports to the European Union fell 28.4%.

Japan slipped into recession for the first time in 4-1/2 years in the first quarter and is on course for its deepest postwar slump as the health crisis weighs heavily on businesses and consumers.

The world’s third-largest economy is forecast to contract 5.3% this fiscal year, the biggest contraction since comparable data became available in 1994, followed by a 3.3% bounce next year, a Reuters poll of over 30 economists shows.

Reflecting weak demand and declining oil prices, imports fell 14.4% in the year to June, versus the median estimate for a 16.8% decrease, leaving the trade balance in a deficit of 268.8 billion yen ($2.51 billion).

The Bank of Japan has signalled confidence the economy will emerge from the slump and has ruled out the risk of deflation, suggesting the central bank has paused monetary easing after it deployed stimulus twice so far this year.

(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam)

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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