Japan’s factory output slumps in worrying sign for economy - Al Jazeera English | Canada News Media
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Japan’s factory output slumps in worrying sign for economy – Al Jazeera English

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Factory production falls 1.3 percent in April as China’s lockdowns and the Ukraine war weigh on manufacturers.

Japan’s factory output fell sharply last month as China’s draconian “zero COVID” policies and supply chain blockages hampered manufacturing and dampened prospects for growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

Factory production fell 1.3 percent in April compared with the previous month, government data showed on Tuesday, amid steep declines in the manufacture of items including electronic parts and machinery.

The weak figures, which mark the first decrease in three months, came a day after Toyota Motor Corp missed its global production target for April after output declined more than 9 percent year-on-year.

Toyota, the world’s biggest carmaker by sales, last week downgraded its global production target for June while signalling the possibility of slashing production for the whole year.

Shigeto Nagai, head of Japan economics at Oxford Economics, told Al Jazeera he sees waning domestic demand, especially private consumption, as a bigger risk to Japan’s economy than slowing industrial activity.

“Although we are now seeing an impressive recovery driven by pent-up demand, the strength of consumption will be severely constrained by a sharp squeeze in real household income caused by a combination of higher inflation and stagnant wage growth,” Nagai said.

“The weak yen is also clearly a negative to households and consumption, which is supposed to take a lead in the coming recovery after the coronavirus.”

Despite slowing industrial activity, separate retail sales and unemployment figures showed healthy gains.

Retail sales posted the largest rise in nearly a year as consumers ramped up spending after the government eased COVID-19 restrictions, despite rising inflation that threatened to sap demand. Retail sales grew 2.9 percent in April, the biggest jump since May 2021 and well ahead of market forecasts. The jobless rate stood at 2.5 percent, the lowest in more than two years.

“We ought to be on the watch for tighter labour market conditions leading to wage growth, which is the key that the Bank of Japan has been looking for to gauge a sustainable inflation trend,” ING economists said in a note.

While Japan’s services sector has rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic, manufacturing has faced disruptions and higher material prices due to China’s ongoing lockdowns and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expect output to return to growth in May, growing 4.8 percent, followed by a 8.9 percent advance in June.

“I think the slowdown in industrial production today is temporary mainly reflecting disruptions in supply chains and production activities by COVID-related lockdowns in China,” Nagai said.

“Japan’s exports and production will continue to be affected by the lockdowns for another few months but will regain momentum thereafter. We have limited concern about the prospect of Japan’s manufacturing activities amid strong demand for high-end capital goods and autos. The weak yen will also help exports.”

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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