TOKYO — Japan’s industrial output slipped for the second straight month in November, raising the likelihood the economy will contract in the fourth quarter due to slowing demand abroad and at home.
Japan’s economy has cooled in recent months due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike.
Official data showed factory output fell 0.9% in November from the previous month, a slower decline than the 1.4% fall in a Reuters forecast.
That followed a downwardly revised 4.5% decline in the previous month, the largest month-on-month slump since the government started compiling the data in comparative form in January 2013.
“The overall economy including factory output is expected to contract sharply in the current quarter,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
“It is expected to rebound in January-March but the issue is how much it will recover.”
Production was pushed down by a decrease in output of production machinery and information equipment, which offset a bounce back in output of cars and car engines.
“There is still uncertainty for the economic outlook as the effects from the U.S.-China trade friction will likely remain but there are positive signals for a moderate pickup in factory output,” said Hiroaki Mutou, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute.
Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect output to gain 2.8% in December and rise 2.5% in January, the data showed.
Separate data released on Friday showed retail sales dropped a larger-than-expected 2.1% in November as consumer sentiment stayed depressed after October’s sales tax hike.
The weak readings could pressure the government to come up with new ways to boost growth and force the central bank to maintain its stimulus program.
“Economic sentiment has worsened overall,” said Shudai Hasegawa, a shopkeeper at a store selling rice, pickles and other foods in Tokyo’s Shinagawa area.
“There are fewer people in the shopping street here from the start of the year compared to the previous year, and also after the tax hike,” he said earlier this month.
Kota Watanabe, manager of a store selling pillows and futon mattresses, said demand from older consumers over 50 has been weak this year, partly due to warm weather.
“They say they are satisfied with cheap goods. There are also people saving money for their children instead of spending it themselves.”
UNDER PRESSURE
The broader economy is likely to stay under pressure as weak business and consumer confidence and a delayed pickup in global growth hurt demand.
The government last week cut its overall view on the economy for the fourth time this year due to a downgrade in its assessment of manufacturing output.
The Bank of Japan stood pat last week though it warned risks to the recovery remained high and offered a gloomier view on output.
Japan’s government last week approved a record budget for the coming fiscal year. Part of the planned spending will help finance a $122 billion fiscal package to shore up growth.
Meanwhile, Japan’s jobless rate fell in November, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio held steady, suggesting the nation’s tightest jobs market in decades is holding up.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 2.2% in November from 2.4% in the previous month, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications data showed.
The jobs-to-applicants ratio was unchanged at 1.57 in November from the previous month, health ministry data showed. (Reporting by Daniel Leussink; Additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Sam Holmes and Lincoln Feast.)
(Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a surprisingly resilient US economy has prompted investors to question what it will take to bring inflation down, but she cast doubt on whether that would force interest rates to stay elevated for a long period.
“People are trying to figure out exactly what it’s going to take to keep inflation moving down,” Yellen said Tuesday in a moderated discussion at the Fortune CEO Initiative conference in Washington. “And the economic resilience that they see maybe suggest higher for longer, but we’ll see. I think it’s by no means a given.”
Yellen also said that it’s possible that higher rates of investment spending — such as on the green-energy transition — could imply higher interest rates over the longer haul. At the same time, the structural forces that held rates down in recent decades — such as demographic trends — remain “alive and well.”
“The answer is, I don’t know,” whether bond yields will stay high over the longer run, Yellen said. “It’s a great question and it’s one that’s very much on my and the administration’s minds.”
Yellen also said that it’s critical to maintain a “sustainable fiscal policy.” She said the current level of debt is manageable — as measured by how much the US spends each year to finance the federal debt as a share of gross domestic product, and adjusted for inflation. But she also indicated that higher long-term rates could pose a threat.
“The forecast we’ve made assumes that interest rates will rise toward more normal levels, but we are seeing a pretty significant increase in nominal” rates, she said.
Yellen also said that she’s “very optimistic” about the outlook for the US economy.
Economic Outlook
“Consumer spending remains strong, investment spending is solid” and the housing market has stabilized and “seems to be moving up,” she said. “Short term inflation is coming down in the context of an extremely strong labor market,” she also said.
Yellen’s comments come just a couple of days after a last-minute deal was struck to avoid a government shutdown, something the Treasury chief had warned could threaten the economic outlook.
She said that, now, “it’s urgent that Congress allocate funds for Ukraine — that hasn’t been done. That’s really our focus.”
Yellen declined to comment on the battle for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to retain his post.
(Updates with further comments on interest rates, starting in headline.)
Eurozone business activity remained in contraction at the end of the third quarter of the year as an increased rate of loss of orders led to a further decline in activity. The overall reduction in output was again led by manufacturing, but the service sector saw activity decrease for the second month running.
Input costs continued to rise sharply, and the rate of inflation even picked up from that seen in August, in part due to higher oil prices. Output prices, however, increased at the softest pace in over two-and-a-half years amid muted pricing power.
Forward-looking indicators suggest the economic contraction is likely to persist into the fourth quarter. Future business expectations fell sharply and are now running weak by historical standards to hint at an acceleration in the rate of decline in the months ahead. Similarly, new order inflows are falling at a faster rate than output in both manufacturing and services, suggesting companies will seek to reduce capacity in the months ahead. Likewise, backlogs of work are falling at an accelerating rate to hint at production cuts across goods and services in the months ahead. In the goods-producing sector, inventory reduction remains widespread, suggesting no immediate relief to the intense destocking cycle that has exacerbated the recent downturn in customer demand.
However, as well as subduing output growth as we head into 2024, these factors should also play a role in diminishing pricing power and inflationary pressures, both in manufacturing and services.
Output fall gathers pace
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, compiled by S&P Global, recorded 47.1 in September according to the flash estimate, up marginally from 46.7 in August but still signalling a solid monthly decline in business activity. Output has now fallen for four consecutive months.
The August reading is indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of 0.4%, but combined with the August and July readings means GDP likely contracted by 0.3% over the third quarter as a whole.
For the second successive month, output falls were seen in both manufacturing and services. That said, the rate of contraction in services eased slightly from August and was still much softer than that seen in manufacturing. The reduction in manufacturing production was unchanged from the rapid pace seen in August. Barring a brief period of growth during the opening quarter of the year, euro area manufacturing output has decreased continuously since the middle of 2022 with recent declines being the steepest recorded since the global financial crisis.
Central to the latest reduction in business activity was a further deterioration in demand, as highlighted by a fourth successive monthly decrease in new orders. Moreover, the fall in September was the most pronounced since November 2020 and – baring pandemic months – the steepest since September 2012.
Manufacturing new orders contracted rapidly again, but the acceleration in the overall rate of decline was centred on the service sector, where the drop in new business was the sharpest since the pandemic. In fact, excluding months affected by COVID-19 restrictions, the fall in services new orders was the largest since May 2013.
The data therefore continue to signal a marked cooling of the demand revival seen in the spring for consumer-oriented services such as travel and tourism, which had boomed in early 2023 amid loosened COVID-19 containment measures compared to the prior three years. Note also that new orders continued to fall at a sharper rate than output is currently being reduced, which – in the absence of a sudden revival of demand – suggests firms will come under pressure to reducing operating capacity in the months ahead.
Job market remains largely stalled
Sharp falls in new orders meant that companies often turned to work on outstanding business in order to maintain activity levels. As such, backlogs of work decreased markedly again during September, with the latest depletion the most pronounced since June 2020. Barring pandemic months, the decline was the steepest since 2012, reflecting the steepest fall in services backlogs since 2012 and the largest falling manufacturing backlogs since the global financial crisis.
Eurozone businesses also signalled a waning of confidence in the year-ahead outlook at the end of the third quarter. Future sentiment dipped sharply to the lowest since November last year. Optimism waned across both monitored sectors, with manufacturing sentiment only just in positive territory.
The combination of spare capacity and reduced confidence in the outlook meant that companies were again cautious in their approach to hiring. Although employment rose marginally in September, the rate of job creation was the joint-second slowest in the current 32-month run of growth.
A fourth successive monthly reduction in manufacturing workforce numbers compared with a slight increase in services employment.
As well as scaling back staffing levels, manufacturers in the eurozone also cut their purchasing activity sharply and reduced their holdings of both purchases and finished goods. The fall in stocks of finished goods was the sharpest in two years.
Reduced demand for inputs meant that suppliers were able to speed up deliveries, with vendor lead times shortening for the eighth consecutive month. The rate at which deliveries quickened was marked, albeit the least pronounced since February.
Pricing power falls
There were differing trends in terms of inflation in September as a sharper rise in input costs contrasted with a weakened rate of output price inflation.
Input costs increased at the fastest pace in four months, albeit at a pace that remained well below the average seen over the past three years. Inflation was driven by the service sector, where prices were up sharply amid higher wages and rising fuel costs. Manufacturing, on the other hand, posted a seventh successive monthly drop in input costs.
Despite the steeper pace of input cost inflation, a weakening demand environment meant that companies increased their selling prices to a lesser extent than in August. In fact, the latest rise in charges was only modest and the softest since February 2021. Manufacturing output prices fell at a marked and accelerated pace, while services charge inflation eased to a 25-month low.
Measured across both sectors, the overall rate of selling price inflation has now fallen to a level consistent with consumer prices rising at a rate below 3% in early 2024, down from the 5.2% rate seen in August.
National trends
Looking at growth across the euro area, the euro area’s two largest economies – Germany and France – were the key drivers of the overall downturn in activity during September. Germany saw output decrease for the third month running and at a solid pace, albeit one that was slightly softer than seen in August. German manufacturing production declined at the fastest rate since the opening wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, while services activity was down marginally.
The contraction in France was more severe than in Germany, with activity decreasing to the largest extent since November 2020. Excluding pandemic affected months, the September contraction in output was the sharpest in over a decade. Rates of decrease quickened across both manufacturing and services.
The rest of theeurozone saw business activity remain broadly stable in September. Although manufacturing output decreased for a sixth month running, the fall was the softest since April. Meanwhile, services activity increased slightly, and to a greater extent than in August.
JOHANNESBURG: Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth is expected to slow this year, dragged down by slumps in heavyweights South Africa, Nigeria and Angola, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
Regional growth will slow to 2.5% in 2023 from 3.6% last year, the bank said in a report, before rebounding to a projected 3.7% next year and 4.1% in 2025.
In per capita terms, the region has not recorded positive growth since 2015, as African countries’ economic activity has failed to keep pace with their rapid increase in population.
Some 12 million Africans are entering the labour market each year, the World Bank wrote in its twice-yearly “Africa’s Pulse” report. But current growth patterns generate just 3 million jobs in the formal sector.
“The region’s poorest and most vulnerable people continue to bear the economic brunt of this slowdown, as weak growth translates into slow poverty reduction and poor job growth,” Andrew Dabalen, the bank’s chief economist for Africa, said.
More than half of the region’s countries – 28 out of 48 – have seen their 2023 growth forecasts revised downward from the World Bank’s April estimates.
The continent’s most developed economy, South Africa, which is facing its worst energy crisis on record, is expected to grow just 0.5% this year.
Economic growth in top oil producers Nigeria and Angola is expected to slow to 2.9% and 1.3% respectively.
Sudan, which is in the midst of a major internal armed conflict that has destroyed infrastructure and brought the economy to a standstill, is expected to be hit by a 12% contraction, the Bank said.
Excluding Sudan, regional growth would be 3.1%.
“The region is projected to contract at an annual average rate per capita of 0.1% over 2015-2025, thus marking a lost decade of growth in the aftermath of the 2014-15 plunge in commodity prices,” the report stated.
While sub-Saharan inflation is expected to ease to 7.3% this year from 9.3% in 2022, it remains above central bank targets in most countries.
Meanwhile, recent military coups in Niger and Gabon in the wake of army takeovers in Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as armed conflicts in Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, have created additional risk in Africa.
And mounting debt is draining resources, with 31% of regional revenues going to interest and loan payments in 2022.
