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US economy adds 236,000 jobs in March, unemployment rate falls to 3.5%

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The March jobs report showed hiring slowed last month but likely not by enough to ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in its efforts to slow inflation.

The U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed.

Here are the key figures from the report, compared to last month’s revised numbers:

  • Nonfarm payrolls: +236,000 vs. +326,000
  • Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.6%
  • Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.2%
  • Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +4.2% vs. +4.6%

By industry, leisure and hospitality was again the largest contributor to last month’s job gains with 72,000 new workers coming into the sector during March. Temporary help services was the second-largest contributor to job growth last month with 65,000 workers joining the sector.

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The labor force participation rate also ticked higher in March, rising to 62.6% from 62.5% in February. Average weekly hours worked fell slightly to 34.4 from 34.5.

Over the last six months the U.S. economy has added an average of 334,000 jobs each month.

Following Friday’s release, markets are now pricing in a 67% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates by another 0.25% in May, up from 50/50 odds of a hike on Thursday ahead of the numbers, according to data from the CME Group.

Forecasts from the central bank released last month suggested one additional 0.25% rate increase was likely this year.

Still, economists see March’s jobs data as beginning a period of slower growth for the U.S. labor market that will eventually result in a rise in the unemployment rate.

“The 236,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March adds to the evidence that the economy’s strong start to the year was partly a weather-related blip, with momentum now fading again,” wrote Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a note on Friday.

“With the sharp fall in job openings and upward trend in jobless claims also pointing to a cooling in labour demand, and the drag from the recent banking turmoil still to feed through, we expect employment growth to slow more sharply soon.”

The Fed expects unemployment to rise to 4.5% by the end of this year.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, D.C., the United States, on March 22, 2023. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, lifting the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.75-5 percent. (Photo by Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images)U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, D.C., the United States, on March 22, 2023. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, lifting the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.75-5 percent. (Photo by Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images)
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, D.C., the United States, on March 22, 2023. (Photo by Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Earlier this week, data on initial jobless claims out Thursday and private payroll data from ADP out Wednesday suggested the labor market is cooling.

A slowdown in wage growth — from 4.6% over the prior year in February to 4.2% in March — served as another sign in Friday’s report some labor market pressures are easing.

Initial claims are seen as the best real-time indicator of stress in the labor market; this measure has shown some signs of increasing in the last few months, with claims totaling 228,000 last week. ADP’s report out Wednesday morning showed there were 145,000 jobs added to the private sector last month, below expectations.

Additionally, job openings data for February showed open roles in the economy continue to fall, another potential signal the labor market is slowing. February marked the first time since June 2021 there were fewer than 10 million jobs open as of the end of the month.

“Despite weakening in employment readings in the run-up to the non-farm employment report, employment growth has not yet collapsed though there are visible signs of continued moderation,” wrote Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic in a note on Friday.

“In all the Federal Reserve will be pleased by the details of the employment report, but still is supportive of another rate hike in May — which we think could be the last for the tightening cycle. Followed by a long pause.”

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Dow Jones Rises But S&P, Nasdaq Fall; Nvidia, SMCI Flash Sell Signals As Bitcoin's Fourth Halving Arrives – Investor's Business Daily

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[unable to retrieve full-text content]

  1. Dow Jones Rises But S&P, Nasdaq Fall; Nvidia, SMCI Flash Sell Signals As Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving Arrives  Investor’s Business Daily
  2. Iran fires at apparent Israeli attack drones: Mideast tensions  The Associated Press
  3. S&P 500 extends losing streak to sixth day, Dow up 210 points  Yahoo Canada Finance
  4. Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for April 19  Bloomberg
  5. Stock market today: Wall Street limps toward its longest weekly losing streak since September  CityNews Kitchener

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Netflix stock sinks on disappointing revenue forecast, move to scrap membership metrics – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Netflix (NFLX) stock slid as much as 9.6% Friday after the company gave a second quarter revenue forecast that missed estimates and announced it would stop reporting quarterly subscriber metrics closely watched by Wall Street.

On Thursday, Netflix guided to second quarter revenue of $9.49 billion, a miss compared to consensus estimates of $9.51 billion.

The company said it will stop reporting quarterly membership numbers starting next year, along with average revenue per member, or ARM.

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“As we’ve evolved our pricing and plans from a single to multiple tiers with different price points depending on the country, each incremental paid membership has a very different business impact,” the company said.

Netflix reported first quarter earnings that beat across the board on Thursday, with another 9 million-plus subscribers added in the quarter.

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Subscriber additions of 9.3 million beat expectations of 4.8 million and followed the 13 million net additions the streamer added in the fourth quarter. The company added 1.7 million paying users in Q1 2023.

Revenue beat Bloomberg consensus estimates of $9.27 billion to hit $9.37 billion in the quarter, an increase of 14.8% compared to the same period last year as the streamer leaned on revenue initiatives like its crackdown on password-sharing and ad-supported tier, in addition to the recent price hikes on certain subscription plans.

Netflix’s stock has been on a tear in recent months, with shares currently trading near the high end of its 52-week range. Wall Street analysts had warned that high expectations heading into the print could serve as an inherent risk to the stock price.

Earnings per share (EPS) beat estimates in the quarter, with the company reporting EPS of $5.28, well above consensus expectations of $4.52 and nearly double the $2.88 EPS figure it reported in the year-ago period. Netflix guided to second quarter EPS of $4.68, ahead of consensus calls for $4.54.

Profitability metrics also came in strong, with operating margins sitting at 28.1% for the first quarter compared to 21% in the same period last year.

The company previously guided to full-year 2024 operating margins of 24% after the metric grew to 21% from 18% in 2023. Netflix expects margins to tick down slightly in Q2 to 26.6%.

Free cash flow came in at $2.14 billion in the quarter, above consensus calls of $1.9 billion.

Meanwhile, ARM ticked up 1% year over year — matching the fourth quarter results. Wall Street analysts expect ARM to pick up later this year as both the ad-tier impact and price hike effects take hold.

On the ads front, ad-tier memberships increased 65% quarter over quarter after rising nearly 70% sequentially in Q3 2023 and Q4 2023. The ads plan now accounts for over 40% of all Netflix sign-ups in the markets it’s offered in.

FILE PHOTO: Netflix reported first quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File PhotoFILE PHOTO: Netflix reported first quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo

Netflix reported first quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo (REUTERS / Reuters)

Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.

For the latest earnings reports and analysis, earnings whispers and expectations, and company earnings news, click here

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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Oil Prices Erase Gains as Iran Downplays Reports of Israeli Missile Attack – OilPrice.com

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Oil Prices Erase Gains as Iran Downplays Reports of Israeli Missile Attack | OilPrice.com



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Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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  • Oil prices initially spiked on Friday due to unconfirmed reports of an Israeli missile strike on Iran.
  • Prices briefly reached above $90 per barrel before falling back as Iran denied the attack.
  • Iranian media reported activating their air defense systems, not an Israeli strike.

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Oil prices gave up nearly all of early Friday’s gains after an Iranian official told Reuters that there hadn’t been a missile attack against Iran.

Oil surged by as much as $3 per barrel in Asian trade early on Friday after a U.S. official told ABC News today that Israel launched missile strikes against Iran in the early morning hours today. After briefly spiking to above $90 per barrel early on Friday in Asian trade, Brent fell back to $87.10 per barrel in the morning in Europe.

The news was later confirmed by Iranian media, which said the country’s air defense system took down three drones over the city of Isfahan, according to Al Jazeera. Flights to three cities including Tehran and Isfahan were suspended, Iranian media also reported.

Israel’s retaliation for Iran’s missile strikes last week was seen by most as a guarantee of escalation of the Middle East conflict since Iran had warned Tel Aviv that if it retaliates, so will Tehran in its turn and that retaliation would be on a greater scale than the missile strikes from last week. These developments were naturally seen as strongly bullish for oil prices.

However, hours after unconfirmed reports of an Israeli attack first emerged, Reuters quoted an Iranian official as saying that there was no missile strike carried out against Iran. The explosions that were heard in the large Iranian city of Isfahan were the result of the activation of the air defense systems of Iran, the official told Reuters.

Overall, Iran appears to downplay the event, with most official comments and news reports not mentioning Israel, Reuters notes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that “there is no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites,” confirming Iranian reports on the matter.

The Isfahan province is home to Iran’s nuclear site for uranium enrichment.

“Brent briefly soared back above $90 before reversing lower after Iranian media downplayed a retaliatory strike by Israel,” Saxo Bank said in a Friday note.

The $5 a barrel trading range in oil prices over the past week has been driven by traders attempting to “quantify the level of risk premium needed to reflect heightened tensions but with no impact on supply,” the bank said, adding “Expect prices to bid ahead of the weekend.”

At the time of writing Brent was trading at $87.34 and WTI at $83.14.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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