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Jump in unemployment rate puts Bank of Canada in a ‘tricky spot’. Here’s why – Global News

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The Canadian unemployment rate jumped up to 6.1 per cent in March amid rapid growth in the labour pool, Statistics Canada said Friday.

Canadian employers collectively shed 2,200 jobs last month but employment was little changed in the month, the agency said.

Canada’s unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent in February.

The spike in the unemployment rate – a full percentage point higher than where it stood a year ago – is tied to an additional 60,000 people looking for work or on temporary layoff in March, StatCan said. Last month the agency reported that, as of Jan. 1, Canada’s annual population growth hit its fastest rate since 1957.



0:31
Canada’s population hits 41M, seeing fastest growth in more than 60 years


The consensus of economist expectations called for 25,000 jobs gained last month and a more modest increase in the unemployment rate to 5.9 per cent.

Youth aged 15-24 bore the brunt of contraction with 28,000 jobs lost in March.

StatCan said the food and accommodation services, wholesale and retail trade, and professional, scientific and technical industries led job losses in the month, offset by gains in healthcare and social assistance.

Average hourly wages were up 5.1 per cent year-over-year, a slight acceleration from 5.0 per cent in February.

‘Cracks’ in the labour market put Bank of Canada in a ‘tricky spot’

The latest employment data comes days before the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement, which is set for April 10.


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The central bank has been looking for signs that the labour market is cooling, and by extension taking some steam out of inflation, as it debates how long to keep interest rates elevated.

BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients on Wednesday that while the rising unemployment rate suggests a slackening in the labour market, still-hot wage growth puts the Bank of Canada in a “tricky spot.”

“With productivity barely moving, these (five per cent) gains will feed right into costs and threaten to keep inflation sticky,” he wrote.

Inflation has also surprised economists with softer than expected reports for two months in a row, most recently cooling to 2.8 per cent annually in February. Real gross domestic product data has meanwhile come in hotter than anticipated to start 2024, suggesting the economy is holding up under the weight of higher interest rates.



1:43
Canada likely to avoid recession, begin recovering later in 2024: Deloitte


But economists weighing in on Friday said that the weak job report, which noted a tick down in total hours worked for March, could be a sign that Canada’s economy is set for a more pronounced slowdown.

TD Bank senior economist James Orlando said in a note that the March jobs report “casts a cloud over the Canadian economy.”

To date, the Bank of Canada’s decision to be patient on its pivot to rate cuts has been validated by relatively strong economic results, he said, giving the central bank “extra time” to ensure inflation cools back to its two per cent target. But a weak jobs report might challenge that approach.

“This throws some cold water on expectations that the recent string of hot economic data prints to start 2024 will be sustained,” he wrote.

CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said in a note Friday that the “cracks that had been emerging within the Canadian labour market suddenly got a lot wider.”

While strong GDP data had pushed markets to expect policy rate cuts from the Bank of Canada to begin in July, Grantham said the weaker than expected jobs report should affirm CIBC’s call for a decrease in June.

Porter also said that a June rate cut is “looking a bit more likely now.” He said that the Bank of Canada could sound more “dovish” – opening the door to rate cuts in the future – at its April 10 decision.



1:48
Bank of Canada says it’s still ‘too early’ to cut interest rates


Money markets raised their odds for a June rate cut after Friday’s jobs release, according to Reuters, and expect the central bank will hold at its decision next week. The Bank of Canada will also release fresh forecasts for inflation and the economy alongside the rate announcement on Wednesday.

Grantham said the expected economic softening in the second quarter of the year will continue to drive up the unemployment rate, which he expects to peak close to 6.5 per cent.

“However, interest rate cuts starting in June should bring a reacceleration in growth, which will help to stabilise the labour market in the second half of the year and into 2025.”

– with files from The Canadian Press and Reuters

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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