For those of us who have been anticipating a return to the seasonal rhythms of the Toronto real estate market, the August sales figures, released Friday afternoon by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, confirmed what many of us had been expecting — we’re closing off a slow summer within the tightest real estate market in recent memory.
While the average sale price for a home in Toronto hit close to $1.1M in August, sales were down by almost 20% from the same month last year, and 8% from July — the fifth straight month of decline.
Some might look at that and assume that means that the market is about to crumble — that buyers have finally read the room and either lost confidence or wised up, depending on your perspective. Well, no — the long-awaited apocalyptic crash is not upon us. Not even close.
The most consequential data point in trying to make sense of the data is the 43% decline in new listings in August.
That means that we have almost half the number of homes available for purchase as we did last August. That, of course, is going to impact the number of sales. So, all the buyers who have their preapprovals burning a hole in their pockets have only a small pool of options. Multiple offers continue to be the norm.
To use my favourite airport analogy, we have a seemingly infinite number of planes circling in the sky, waiting for their opportunity to land and only a handful of runways to bring them in on. Competition for those runways is fierce.
Knowing that all who want to land aren’t being given the opportunity, to count the number of planes coming in just isn’t going to accurately capture this moment we find ourselves in. What would be most telling is if we had a way to gauge the number of planes in the sky, jockeying for coveted space on the limited runways. And we don’t.
What we do know, however, is that we are rounding out year two of life in the time of COVID. Vaccinations have afforded a relatively normal summer of social gatherings and travel, and many of our friends and neighbours are taking the summer off from the weight of everything. Presumably, this includes would-be sellers who have decided to hold off until after Labour Day, either because they have better things to do during our glorious but fleeting Canadian summer, or because they think it most sensible to pause until the largest pool of prospective buyers is back in action with their heads in the game.
If predictions are true and what this has been is a seasonal slowdown, September should bring more activity. An increase in new listings will alleviate some of the pressure on prices while also bringing up the total number of sales. But the fact remains that until the structural conditions of our marketplace change — low interest rates, limited supply, fierce competition — even with a surge of new activity in the fall we are still a long way from a housing supply sufficient to bring prices down.
TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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