LACKIE: What will Toronto real estate market will look like post COVID-19? - Toronto Sun | Canada News Media
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LACKIE: What will Toronto real estate market will look like post COVID-19? – Toronto Sun

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BY BRYNN LACKIE

Torontonians love to talk about Toronto real estate.

Love it or hate it — whether you’ve witnessed the meteoric rise in your property’s value over the past decade, or felt the deep frustration of wondering if you’ll ever be able to afford a home in the city — there are few among us without a strong opinion.

That was the case long before the city came to a grinding halt in the face of COVID-19.

Today, in the midst of these uncertain times, most of us find ourselves at home, wondering what post-lockdown life is going to look like.

And while there is no shortage of opinions — everywhere, from everyone — the real estate hot takes are especially interesting.

That’s because they are all over the place.

Some say what was poised to be the hottest spring market on record is just on pause, and will reactivate the moment eager buyers and sellers are released from quarantine.

Others forecast a much bleaker picture than business as usual.

Surely Toronto real estate can’t emerge unscathed from a global economic downturn with historic unemployment numbers, and questions about if and when the next wave of the virus will hit?

Will it mirror the fall and recovery of the great recession of 2008-2009, or not?

While there is no shortage of educated people with intelligent opinions, we just don’t know yet.

Given that the definition of “market value” is what a given property will sell for on the open market, we will need the real estate market to open up again before we can get any real sense of our new normal with respect to house prices and property values.

In the meantime, there have been some government decisions made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic that are already having an impact on the here and now.

After years of historically low vacancy rates on the rental market, largely attributed to investor-owners experiencing bank-robber returns through short-term rentals, the lockdown had an immediate impact.

Suddenly investors have unrentable units to carry.

Almost immediately Craigslist and Kijiji were flooded with new rental apartments.

For renters who have been forced to endure once-inconceivable bidding wars on apartments approaching peak unaffordability, this is great news.

More supply means less demand — you can expect prices to adjust accordingly.

Even without a crystal ball, we can certainly expect to see an immediate impact on the condo market.

Those same investor-owners are suddenly entering their second month of lockdown with no clear end in sight.

Mortgage relief options are limited for non-principal residences, and the short-term rentals that used to cover costs and then some are now banned outright in the province.

Many investors will find they have no alternative but to offload, so it would be entirely reasonable to expect a rise in “distress sales.”

Even pre-construction condominiums will surely take a hit as buyers under contract, now experiencing lost earnings and unemployment, may no longer qualify for financing and could be unable to close on their deals.

Is this bad news?

For some it’s not great.

But is it opening up a wedge of opportunity for buyers and renters who have long needed a break? Absolutely.

So, while we have all surely lost patience with false optimism in the midst of this pandemic, everything isn’t completely awful.

— A second-generation Sales Representative, Brynn Lackie has been with Chestnut Park Real Estate, helping her clients navigate the challenging Toronto market, since 2011

On Twitter: @brynnlackie

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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