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Lagarde's Trump Warning Paves Way for EU Capital Markets Drive – Financial Post

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Engulfed in a prolonged economic slowdown and facing the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House, the European Union is dusting off a plan to unite its disparate capital markets.

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(Bloomberg) — Engulfed in a prolonged economic slowdown and facing the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House, the European Union is dusting off a plan to unite its disparate capital markets.

The so-called Capital Markets Union, or CMU, has long been on the to-do list for officials trying to deepen the EU’s single market and secure stronger investment and economic growth. But the project, launched nearly a decade ago, has repeatedly stumbled over national interests or been eclipsed by more urgent work responding to crises such as the Covid pandemic.

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There is now a growing drumbeat of calls to get back on track to attract private money to help fund investments in the climate transition and spur an economy that’s losing momentum. Officials also have to negotiate European Parliament elections in June, which risk seeing breakthroughs for parties that traditionally oppose greater integration. 

Adding to the sense of urgency, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde last month cited the single market and CMU as the best way to bullet-proof Europe’s economy with the prospect of economic disruption from another Trump presidency in the US.

In a draft statement on CMU seen by Bloomberg, EU finance ministers said: “If the development of European capital markets is not addressed urgently, Europe is at risk of falling behind globally in terms of competitiveness, growth, and prosperity of its citizens.” 

The latest wish list of reforms, which will be discussed at an informal meeting of EU finance officials next week, focuses on the architecture of capital flows around Europe, boosting funding for businesses, and improving access to savings and retirement products for individuals.

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The benefits of getting it right could be big. 

“CMU could boost cross-border private risk-sharing, reduce reliance on bank financing and enhance capital allocation efficiency, promoting higher economic growth and euro-zone integration,” Allianz economists led by Ludovic Subran wrote in a recent report. “To restore its overall competitive edge against the US, the next European Parliament urgently needs to tackle the obstacles to higher productivity growth.”

Even as momentum builds to take action, it’s unlikely a deeper union could deliver a quick fix for the region’s economic woes. Growth in the 20-nation euro zone will accelerate only slightly to 0.8% this year from 0.5% in 2023, according to the latest projections by the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm.

One of the key ideas, championed by Lagarde, is to create a European version of the Securities and Exchange Commission to overcome a patchwork of regulatory frameworks. Another aim to drive CMU is to provide greater choice of funding for companies, so they aren’t forced to tap foreign markets such as the US.

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Other officials, including Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, have joined the rallying call for CMU in recent days. Addressing the Munich European Conference on Thursday, he said it would make the ECB’s job easier by equalizing the impact of policy in different countries, as well as strengthening growth and investment.

“The banking and capital markets union is another area where we are still a long way off from achieving complete integration,” Nagel added.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said more integrated capital markets could improve European tech’s access to funding, which has disadvantaged firms in the past.

“Our financial markets also remain segmented along national borders,” she said in a speech in Italy on Friday. “Financial integration in the euro area has not increased from where it stood in the early years of monetary union.”

Ahead of the meeting of European central bankers and finance ministers in Ghent, Belgium next week, others have been more alarmist about the challenges.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, has described the prospect of growth in his country this year of just 0.2% as “downright embarrassing,” arguing that continued inertia will come at a price. He acknowledged that private capital markets will have to participate in a greater proportion than until now to stem the energy transition.

—With assistance from Jorge Valero and Mark Schroers.

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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