‘Lame duck leader’: Scotland’s Humza Yousaf quits. What’s next? | Canada News Media
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‘Lame duck leader’: Scotland’s Humza Yousaf quits. What’s next?

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Glasgow, Scotland – Humza Yousaf has stepped down as Scottish first minister after the collapse of his power-sharing government last week prompted opposition parties in the devolved Scottish Parliament to table two confidence votes – one in him and another in his administration.

Yousaf resigned on Monday after becoming the first Muslim head of government of any Western democracy when he assumed the posts of first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in March 2023. He secured Scotland’s top job after the shock resignation of his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon.

Sturgeon turned the SNP into an election-winning machine at both a Scottish Parliament and London Westminster level during her eight years and four months as party leader and first minister.

But after the British government repeatedly refused to facilitate her calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence and after long being buffeted by a series of personal and political setbacks, Sturgeon eventually fell on her sword after claiming that her years as Scotland’s most powerful politician had taken its toll.

Yousaf, a Sturgeon loyalist who won Scotland’s top office after defeating two party colleagues in an SNP leadership race, entered office as the head of a power-sharing government after Sturgeon’s deal with the Scottish Green Party in August 2021 resulted in an SNP-Green parliamentary majority.

But Yousaf’s decision to end the alliance on Thursday – which came after the Green Party called an emergency vote on whether to continue with the pact after it was angered by the SNP’s decision to abandon Scotland’s “world-leading” carbon emissions target – capped a tumultuous premiership.

Analysts said it was in jeopardy from the very start.

“He’s had a lot of bad luck,” Scottish political commentator Simon Pia said, referring to the current police investigation into allegations of financial misconduct by the SNP during Sturgeon’s premiership, which led to Peter Murrell, Sturgeon’s husband and the party’s former chief executive, being charged with embezzlement this month.

Pia, a former Scottish Labour press adviser at the Scottish Parliament, said Yousaf at 39 just “didn’t have the political savvy” to handle the rough and tumble of high office.

Indeed, during his resignation speech at Bute House, the official residence of Scotland’s first minister in Edinburgh, Yousaf conceded that he had “clearly underestimated the level of hurt and upset I caused Green colleagues” who, after his decision to axe the emissions arrangement, signalled their intention to vote against him in a confidence motion.

‘Lame duck leader’

Political analyst Gerry Hassan, author of Scotland Rising: The Case for Independence, said Yousaf’s resignation was a reflection of the SNP’s current downward trajectory as a political force after its first victory in Scottish Parliament elections in 2007 and its role in putting Scottish independence into the political mainstream (despite losing a vote on Scottish statehood in a referendum by 55-45 percent in 2014).

“The basic reality is that leaders come and go, and political fortunes go up and down,” Hassan told Al Jazeera of the SNP’s political track record, which has seen the party win four Scottish Parliament elections in a row and three consecutive Scotland-wide Westminster elections.

“Yousaf was a lame duck leader from the moment he was elected, and there is wear and tear from [the SNP’s] 17 years in office [at the Scottish Parliament]. The SNP have defied political gravity for so long, but they were never going to defy it forever.”

While support for Scottish independence remains high at about the 50 percent mark, Sturgeon’s connections to the SNP’s financial woes and her bitter feud with Alex Salmond, her predecessor as SNP first minister, have combined with the party’s problems on the domestic front to create a perfect storm of political upheaval.

One of Yousaf’s many political challenges came in the form of Scotland’s Hate Crime and Public Order Act, which became law on April 1.

The law was established to provide greater protection for victims, but the first minister came under fierce attack from some who contended that those who were critical of the trans-rights movement would be sanctioned for expressing their opinions.

A candidate touted as likely to replace Yousaf is 34-year-old Kate Forbes, the socially conservative former SNP finance secretary who came second to the outgoing SNP leader in last year’s contest.

John Swinney, who served as SNP deputy foreign minister but stepped down in 2023 when Sturgeon quit, told Sky News on Monday that he is considering running.

But with polls suggesting that the SNP is losing ground at both a Scottish Parliament and Westminster level, the “next SNP leader will inherit an extremely difficult set of problems”, said James Mitchell, professor at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Social and Political Science.

“The party has been on a gradual but accelerating decline through failure to move on from the independence referendum,” Mitchell told Al Jazeera.

“It has not managed to resurrect a reputation for governing competence.  It is clear that another independence referendum is off the agenda and momentum is now with Scottish Labour. Unless the new leader can achieve much more than Yousaf or Sturgeon, then the immediate future looks bleak.”

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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