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Last quarter was probably the worst on record for the US economy – CNN

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report just how bad the second quarter was on Thursday, in its first estimate of gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy.
Economists polled by Refinitiv expect an annualized decline of 34.1% between April and June. That would be the worst quarter since the BEA began keeping quarterly records in 1947. It would also be more than four times worse than the decline during the 2007-09 financial crisis.
That would confirm what experts have been saying for months: America is in a recession, commonly defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction. Between January and March, the economy contracted by 5%.

A fragile recovery

America shut down around mid-March when the pandemic first swept across the country. April was arguably the worst month of the lockdown, with most of the country under stay-at-home orders, shops shuttered and schools closed. No businesses, from mom-and-pop stores to multinational corporations, were spared the impact of the pandemic.
Since then, business has picked up again, and economists predict GDP will jump sharply in the current, third quarter of the year. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, for example, predicts an annualized increase of 13.3% between July and September.
But the quality of the recovery is less about how it starts, and more about how sustainable it is in the long-run, said Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO.
For example, the United States added a whopping 7.5 million jobs in May and June, but still remains down nearly 15 million jobs since February.
While many people are expected to be able to return to work, the pace of the labor market rebound is vital to the recovery. That is because America’s economy relies heavily on consumer spending, and consumers spend less when they are out of work.
“Our concern all along has been that short of a vaccine or herd immunity or clear effective treatment both business and consumer confidence wouldn’t rebound to what they were before. That would be a shadow hanging over consumer spending,” Gregory said.

A lot could still go wrong.

The recovery is fragile, and unfortunately there is plenty that could still upset it. Covid-19 infections are still rising across the country and states are rolling back their reopening plans. Some workers are afraid to return to work, while others can’t because they are caring for family members. On top of that, pandemic government benefits, including expanded unemployment aid, are running out.
Senate Republicans are proposing another $1 trillion pandemic relief package, which would cut the federal boost to unemployment benefits to $200 on top of regular benefits, compared with $600 in previous government relief.
During the pandemic, the additional $600 per week has kept millions of Americans afloat. In some cases, it even paid more than people were earning while they were working.
But some economists and law makers are worried that benefits that are too high might keep workers from returning to the labor market. Policy makers are shouldered with the tricky job to find the right amount of jobless aid so that Americans can live and help rebuild the economy, but are also incentivized to go back to work when possible.
With an unemployment rate still at 11.1% — higher than during the most dire times of the financial crisis — cutting unemployment benefits too much could have serious consequences for consumer spending, which accounts for some two-thirds of US economic growth. The US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.3% in the July jobs report due next week.
But experts are worried about the the slowing pace of the jobs recovery.
Last week, initial applications for unemployment benefits ticked up for the first time in 16 weeks, adding to worries about the state of the recovery. This week’s report, which is also due Thursday morning, is expected to show another increase.
Economists think it will take years for US GDP to get back to where it was before the pandemic.
A report from Fitch ratings said Monday that the effect of the coronavirus recession will be felt for years to come, with US GDP in 2025 still more than 3% lower than where it could have been without coronavirus.
— Phil Mattingly contributed to this article.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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