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Latest interest rate hike jolts Toronto real estate market

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A house for sale in Toronto’s Cabbagetown neighbourhood.Ammar Bowaihl/The Globe and Mail

For many buyers and sellers immersed in the spring rejuvenation of the Toronto-area real estate market, the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate hike came as a sudden jolt.

The central bank’s rate-setting committee raised the benchmark rate by 0.25 points to 4.75 per cent in June after recent data showed the country’s economic growth was surprisingly robust in the first quarter. The Bank of Canada had paused a series of rate hikes earlier this year as the rate of inflation fell towards its target rate of two per cent but it has remained stubbornly high.

Industry professionals say calls flooded in from potential buyers, investors and existing homeowners as they grappled with the possible repercussions. Showings also slowed down in the days after the announcement as aspiring buyers absorbed the news, they said.

Now, insiders are watching to see if the shock wears off quickly.

One immediate effect, predicts Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker and expert with LowestRates.ca., is that many potential buyers with preapproved mortgage agreements will rush to use them within the next few weeks.

Still, Ms. Zlatkin is advising those entering the market for the first time to try to strike a deal before their preapproved mortgage agreement expires.

“That’s a very risky position for most young buyers to be in,” she said. “If you’ve got a preapproval in hand, go out and do your shopping.”

Ms. Zlatkin said she expects the market to remain hot for the next few weeks as people rush to put those agreements to use. She said buyers who don’t have an active preapproval may feel less urgency, while other buyers may bow out all together because they’re so shaken.

Ms. Zlatkin said that for homeowners who were holding out hope for a rate cut by the end of the year, the June 7 increase was the limit. She noted that existing homeowners with a variable rate may find the latest hike causes them to hit their trigger rate, when the interest applied exceeds their payment. People in that situation need to talk to a mortgage professional, she said.

Pritesh Parekh, real estate agent with Century 21 Legacy Ltd., said the announcement was a surprise for many. For investors who bought in early 2022, their monthly cash flow was manageable, but now they’ve seen nine interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada.

He said investors who bought properties to rent out are often paying significantly more each month in mortgage repayment and expenses than they receive from tenants.

“This may have been the last straw for some owners.”

Mr. Parekh said existing owners who want to move up the property ladder may still be able to do so because they have the ability to adjust their budget in line with the latest increase in borrowing costs, but first-time buyers looking at lower price points are being hurt even more.

“This is knocking so many people off the bottom rung of the ladder.”

John Lusink, president of Right at Home Realty and Property.ca, said some buyers may tap the brakes as they adjust to the news. “Up until then, we’ve seen a healthy increase in transactions,” he said. “It will be interesting to see if this quarter-point hike will apply the brakes again.”

Even before the announcement, listings were increasing earlier this month following a rebound in May, which saw the average price recover to within about 10 per cent of the peak in February, 2022.

Sales in the Greater Toronto Area jumped 24.7 per cent in May compared with the same month last year, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. New listings fell 18.7 per cent last month from May, 2022.

Compared with April, sales rose 5.2 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In May, the shortfall in supply compared with demand led to more competition in the GTA, according to TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

The average price in May reached $1,196,101 in the GTA to mark a 1.2-per-cent dip from the same month last year. Compared with April, the average price edged up a seasonally adjusted 3.5 per cent.

Mr. Lusink said the GTA has bounced back more quickly than some other regions in Ontario. While bidding contests have returned in some neighbourhoods in the Toronto area, helping to contribute to the uptick in prices, areas such as Barrie, Ottawa, Niagara and Windsor have longer days on market.

When it comes to existing homeowners, Mr. Lusink said banks have so far softened the impact by allowing many customers to extend the amortization period from the typical 25 years to 35 or 40 years in some cases.

Mr. Lusink expects sales to continue at a steady pace throughout the summer and he predicts demand will continue to outpace supply.

But he cautioned that each rate hike makes it more difficult for potential buyers to qualify for a mortgage.

As for the months ahead, the outlook is a little murky, Mr. Lusink says. He figures rate cuts in 2023 are likely off the table. There’s also a chance the economy may enter recession.

“It’s the fall I would be more worried about if we don’t get inflation under control,” he says, pointing to the possibility of another hike this year. “If there’s yet another, I think the parking brake will be pulled.”

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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