Le Dain: More foreign investment in our natural resources could ease financial burden on Canadians | Canada News Media
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Le Dain: More foreign investment in our natural resources could ease financial burden on Canadians

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The Canadian loonie has been sitting near multi-year lows, making life more expensive for Canadians. In the past, our country had a natural mechanism that cushioned the inflation impact of a falling loonie. As the value of the currency dropped, global operators would invest in and develop the country’s abundant natural resources. This would then lead to increased demand for Canadian currency and increased jobs and exports during critical periods when the low loonie suggested weakness in other sectors. However, this mechanism weakened recently, making current inflation more persistent and resulting in a higher cost of living. It has taken a few years to play out, but we now find ourselves in this new regime.  

Canada has been lucky to experience minimal inflation for decades, similar to the U.S. Both countries pat themselves on the back for sound policies leading to stability, but the impact of currency is underappreciated. If a country imports a lot of its goods and services with a strong currency, it is far easier to make sure that the cost of those goods doesn’t get out of control. The opposite is also true. Right now, we are seeing these impacts with inflation increasing in Canada, hurting families, particularly low-income households. 
Canada is a dangerous place for inflation because a significant portion of a family’s expenses is already at elevated levels when compared globally. Due to several factors, Canadian industries that provide major services to Canadians have fewer competitors than other countries. Many of these factors can’t be changed, such as the scale of investment required to provide services across such a large country, while others are regulatory and could be improved. Either way, fewer providers naturally lead to higher prices. With wallets already hurting, Canadians now see items often imported from other jurisdictions, such as food, household furnishings and fuel, increasing in price. That last one is probably surprising after reading the first paragraph on the abundant natural resources but yes, imports drive fuel costs with some provinces importing more than half the oil they refine into products.  
How did this mechanism break? In the past, the correlation between the loonie and the price of oil was around 0.6, but in the last few years, it has fallen to 0.2. If the loonie dropped in low commodity environments, it at least made producing those commodities more competitive than in the U.S., all else equal. During these times, companies and governments saw a resource they already needed and otherwise had to purchase with more valuable U.S. dollars, available for cheaper development in a stable regime. This has gotten more difficult, though, and shows up in the numbers with foreign direct investment (FDI) related to natural resources declining.  
The benefits of FDI to the currency are likely an afterthought for many, but they now need to be considered. To address the impact of a weak loonie on inflation and households, it is important for the Canadian government to encourage escalated foreign investment and development in the country’s natural resources. If they don’t, it’s likely worthwhile to at least be aware of the impact on the average Canadian. When Germany came asking for resources just a few months ago, the response from Canada was “there was never a strong business case.” Comments like this do not get large organizations excited to invest and make it unlikely this trend is about to get better. 

FDI for natural resources is not where it should be, or needs to be, and increasing it is a lever available to Canada to ease the financial burden on our population. I am very aware, though, that the dynamics driving FDI are incredibly complex, the lag time in response to factors is often years, and sector-specific dynamics are also at play. For this reason, I would love feedback to incorporate into an updated article in two months. Working together on these problems is critical.

Mark Le Dain is vice-president, corporate development, at Neo Financial in Calgary.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Investment

Crypto Market Bloodbath Amid Broader Economic Concerns

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The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.

The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.

Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.

The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.

Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.

Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.

Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.

The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.

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