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Less pipeline politics polarization now between B.C. and Alberta – Alaska Highway News

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In April 2019, right after the United Conservative Party (UCP) secured a majority mandate in Alberta’s election, the prospect of a unique conflict between provincial governments was palpable. Premier Jason Kenney began to ponder “turn off the taps” legislation due to the perceived B.C. government opposition to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

A few weeks later, the federal government re-approved the pipeline expansion. In July 2020, all legal challenges to the proposed project effectively ended. Since then, we have had other developments. B.C. Premier John Horgan stands ready to assemble a majority government after last month’s election. Kenney, who has presided over a provincial administration that has consistently garnered subpar ratings for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, still has two and a half years left in his majority mandate.

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With this “new normal” in mind, Research Co. and Glacier Media asked residents of British Columbia and Alberta about their views on the pipeline. We found that the two solitudes that seemed ready to bicker in 2019 are starting to share the same feelings on specific aspects of this project.

More than half of British Columbians (52%) agree with the federal government’s decision to re-approve the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion. This represents a four-point drop since we last reviewed the issue in December 2019, but nowhere near the almost even splits that dominated this question in years past.

 

Support for the project in British Columbia increases with age, from 44% among those aged 18 to 34, to 50% among those aged 35 to 54 and to 60% among those aged 55 and over.

 

Sizable proportions of residents of northern B.C. (70%) and southern B.C. (63%) favour the pipeline expansion, along with 51% of Metro Vancouverites and 50% of those in the Fraser Valley. On Vancouver Island, traditionally the the province’s most environmentally friendly area, opinions are more nuanced: 42% are in favour of the project, and 35% are against it.

While 74% of BC Liberal voters in the most recent provincial election are in favour of the pipeline expansion, support stands at 51% among BC NDP voters and just 38% among BC Green Party voters.

The push for action that would delay or cancel construction is stagnant. Two in five British Columbians (40%) think the provincial government should do anything necessary to ensure that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion does not happen – unchanged since December 2019.

We see little movement as well on the proportion of British Columbians who think the pipeline will create hundreds of jobs for residents of the province (68%, unchanged) and on how many believe the expansion threatens the health and safety of British Columbians (44%, down one point).

Most British Columbians (54%, down five points) are disappointed with the way the federal government has handled the expansion, and 38% (down one point) foresee lower gas prices as a result of this project.

In Alberta, the numbers tilt heavily in favour of carrying on. Almost three in four Albertans (74%) agree with the federal government’s decision to re-approve the pipeline expansion, and just 15% are opposed.

 

There is little difference between residents of Edmonton, which is traditionally more centre-left minded than the rest of the province, and those in Calgary. In the two main urban centres, more than seven in 10 residents want to see the expansion through (72% in Edmonton and 71% in Calgary). Support is slightly higher in the remaining areas of the province (74%).

 

While 40% of British Columbians are willing to stop the project, only 22% of Albertans feel the same way. An even smaller proportion (17%) describe the expansion as a threat to the health and safety of Albertans, and practically four in five (79%) think it will create hundreds of jobs in the province.

The one aspect where the numbers are similar is Ottawa. Almost three in five Albertans (59%, five points higher than in British Columbia) are disappointed with how the federal government has handled the pipeline expansion.

The pipeline file has been extremely complex in British Columbia. On some issues, the views of the province are starting to align with what Albertans have long wanted – especially with a struggling economy. Opposition to the project has remained low this year due to a combination of factors: genuine concerns over job creation and a sense of resignation after the federal government’s direct intervention to keep the project afloat. •

Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 29 to October 31, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia, and an online study conducted from November 2 to November 4, 2020, among 700 adults in Alberta. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for Alberta, 19 times out of 20.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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