There’s no getting around it — lockdown measures don’t seem to be working in Ontario and Quebec the second time around.
Health experts say Canada’s hardest-hit provinces have consistently failed to contain the spread of COVID-19 with inadequate, poorly timed restrictions, leaving little choice but for much more draconian rules to be introduced.
But where exactly did we go wrong? And where do we go from here?
Despite declaring lockdowns as they’d done to control the spread of COVID-19 in the pandemic’s first wave, Ontario and Quebec hesitated to impose strict enough measures to prevent an even deadlier second wave, some experts say.
“The first lockdown was extreme. Everything was closed, everything, and people were really discouraged from even leaving their houses as well. People were terrified and so they were more likely to comply,” said Raywat Deonandan, a global health epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa.
“Now, there isn’t a lockdown — some businesses are closed but many are open still. So people are still going about their business, people are still socializing, because the fear is gone.”
‘It just keeps getting worse’
In the spring, when much of the country went into widespread, severely restrictive lockdowns to stop the mysterious spread of a new virus we knew little about, the high level of compliance was obvious.
“Nobody was on the street. It was like a neutron bomb went off,” said Dr. Michael Gardam, an infectious diseases expert in Toronto and senior medical adviser for Health PEI.
“And if you compare that to today, the highways are full, there are people everywhere. There is so much more interpersonal contact now than there was back in the spring, and I think that’s your answer — it’s not the same lockdown at all.”
Ontario Premier Doug Ford imposed what he calls a provincewide lockdown on Boxing Day in an effort to address the alarming rise of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Since then, new daily cases have actually doubled — from 2,123 when the restrictions were announced on Dec. 21 to 4,249 on Friday — although the full impact of the measures may not yet be seen.
WATCH | Ontario premier implores people to follow public health protocols, talks about state of pandemic:
Ontario Premier Doug Ford says new models forecasting coronavirus cases will show the province is in ‘a desperate situation’ and he warns new measures are coming to try to curb the spread. 1:03
“We’re in a desperate situation,” Ford said during a news conference Friday. “There will be further measures, because this is getting out of control.”
Despite his alarm, the premier didn’t actually announce any new measures.
But two weeks after the new lockdown was put in place, as the head of the Ontario Hospital Association warns of looming disaster, it’s clear to some experts that much more needs to be done.
“Ontario keeps opting for ‘lockdown light.’ It just doesn’t get aggressive enough, and so you have this slow trickle of increase which has just really worn everybody down to the absolute maximum,” said Gardam. “Everybody in health care is so exhausted and yet there’s more coming and it just keeps getting worse.”
Hesitation led to worsening situation
Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, said the problem is that Ontario and Quebec tried to be more strategic with their lockdowns in the second wave.
Non-essential businesses were left open, travel wasn’t restricted effectively, and the provinces only reacted when the situation turned dire.
“At this point, we’re on a pretty scary trajectory if you look at the ICU numbers, if you look at the hospitalizations and if you look at what’s happening in long-term care,” she said. “If you talk to people who work in public health, there is this sense of dread in terms of what is happening right now and what is to come.”
Paramedics transport a resident from Midland Gardens Care Community in Toronto on Tuesday. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
The situation is so bad that Ontario is now preparing hospitals to transfer potentially hundreds of patients to different regions of the province amid a shortage of beds and an unrelenting rise in COVID-19 levels in several hot spots.
Dr. Susy Hota, an infectious disease specialist at the University Health Network and an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Toronto, said the “critical pressures” on the health-care system are even worse now than in the first wave.
“I’m not sure how much longer the hospitals are going to be able to accommodate the volumes of COVID patients coming in,” she said. “We can maybe hold our fort for a little bit, but at any point in time we can tip over.”
In response to the worsening situation in hospitals and the unprecedented surge in COVID-19 cases, the Ontario government seems to be hesitating once again before deciding whether to implement new restrictions.
“We need to approach this like the crisis that it is. We also need to adopt the mindset that every day is a new day, and start afresh with our approach if needed,” said Dr. Irfan Dhalla, vice-president of physician quality at Unity Health, which includes St. Michael’s and St. Joseph’s hospitals in Toronto.
“We need to be communicating clearly, and not sending mixed messages. We need to use restrictions and lockdowns to reduce transmission substantially, and only open up when we have the capacity to contain the virus with public health interventions like testing, contact tracing, and quarantine.”
WATCH | Quebec imposes a curfew:
Quebec has imposed a nightly curfew from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. as part of a four-week provincial lockdown aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19 after record cases have put a strain on the health-care system. 2:00
Quebec has taken the extraordinary step of implementing an 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew, beginning Saturday and running for the next four weeks, which is the first of its kind in Canada since the pandemic began.
“The upcoming month is going to be a critical one,” Premier François Legault said at a news conference Wednesday where he announced the new measures. “We are in a race against time.”
But critics were quick to point out the new restrictions didn’t include any limits on the manufacturing or construction sectors or a prolonged break for schools, which, combined, have accounted for a large portion of outbreaks in recent weeks.
“All policymakers can do is create environments and incentives and disincentives to encourage certain behaviours,” said Deonandan.
“Ultimately, it’s always up to the people to do what needs to be done.”
Will stricter measures work?
While the decision to impose a curfew has come under fire from some health experts and advocates and the effect it will have on COVID-19 levels in Quebec remains to be seen, Hota says it will likely make an impact.
“It certainly sends a clear message to people that the expectation is we don’t see people on the street,” she said.
Its success will depend on how well it is enforced, she said.
“If you are breaking the rules, then who’s actually going to call you on it? Or are we just going to let it happen?”
Gardam says a stricter lockdown in Ontario would likely help drive cases down to manageable levels. He suspects the government’s hesitance may be due to the potential political fallout.
“The solution to this is available and it’s been proven,” he said. “It’s just really unpalatable for politicians to do that, and so they keep skirting around it.”
Gardam says if Ontario brought in the type of lockdown that Australia successfully used to control the spread of COVID-19 in its first wave, the province would be in a much better situation.
When Australia was hit with a surge of COVID-19 cases in late July, it prompted one of the world’s longest lockdowns in Melbourne that closed virtually everything that wasn’t a grocery store or hospital for nearly four months.
“If you brought in a very strict lockdown like that, your cases would go down,” he said. “We’ve got ample evidence of that from other parts of the world.”
He said the length of the lockdown would depend on how quickly cases dropped.
Police officers and soldiers patrol Treasury Gardens as they enforce strict lockdown laws in Melbourne, Australia, on Aug. 5, 2020. (William West/AFP/Getty Images)
Deonandan said he’s concerned more severe lockdowns may lead to more resistance from the public.
“Ultimately, if people are not willing to comply, it’s going to fail,” he said. “The tighter we put these restrictions, the more likely people push back on them.”
While the best approach would be to try to drive the case numbers down as quickly as possible, that may not be politically or psychologically possible, he said.
“Do I think people have a tolerance for that? Honestly, I don’t think so.”
Clear message
But Hota says anything short of drastic restrictions now will once again fall short of addressing a second wave that is quickly on the verge of getting out of control in hospitals.
She acknowledges that’s a lot to ask, given that people have already been told to stay home for almost a year at this point. But the reality, she said, is it’s going to take more than just a four-week circuit breaker-type lockdown to turn things around.
Making it work requires providing very clear advice on what is allowable and what’s not, she said.
“If we choose not to, then we have to live with this, which is not sustainable from my perspective.”
The key as Dhalla sees it, is to better apply all that we have learned in the past 10 months so we can contain the pandemic once and for all.
“Then, we can manage sporadic, local outbreaks the way they are managed in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, all while we continue to vaccinate people as fast as we can.”
WINNIPEG – Some 250 coloured tacks pepper a large-scale world map among bookshelves at Whodunit Mystery Bookstore.
Estonia, Finland, Japan and even Fenwick, Ont., have pins representing places outside Winnipeg where someone has ordered a page-turner from the independent bookstore that specializes in mystery and crime fiction novels.
For 30 years, the store has been offering fans of Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot or Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes a place to get lost in whodunits both old and new.
Jack and Wendy Bumsted bought the shop in the Crescentwood neighbourhood in 2007 from another pair of mystery lovers.
The married couple had been longtime customers of the store. Wendy Bumsted grew up reading Perry Mason novels while her husband was a historian with vast knowledge of the crime fiction genre.
At the time, Jack Bumsted was retiring from teaching at the University of Manitoba when he was looking for his next venture.
“The bookstore came up and we bought it, I think, within a week,” Wendy Bumsted said in an interview.
“It never didn’t seem like a good idea.”
In the years since the Bumsteds took ownership, the family has witnessed the decline in mail-order books, the introduction of online retailers, a relocation to a new space next to the original, a pandemic and the death of beloved co-owner Jack Bumsted in 2020.
But with all the changes that come with owning a small business, customers continue to trust their next mystery fix will come from one of the shelves at Whodunit.
Many still request to be called about books from specific authors, or want to be notified if a new book follows their favourite format. Some arrive at the shop like clockwork each week hoping to get suggestions from Wendy Bumsted or her son on the next big hit.
“She has really excellent instincts on what we should be getting and what we should be promoting,” Micheal Bumsted said of his mother.
Wendy Bumsted suggested the store stock “Thursday Murder Club,” the debut novel from British television host Richard Osman, before it became a bestseller. They ordered more copies than other bookstores in Canada knowing it had the potential to be a hit, said Michael Bumsted.
The store houses more than 18,000 new and used novels. That’s not including the boxes of books that sit in Wendy Bumsted’s tiny office, or the packages that take up space on some of the only available seating there, waiting to be added to the inventory.
Just as the genre has evolved, so has the Bumsteds’ willingness to welcome other subjects on their shelves — despite some pushback from loyal customers and initially the Bumsted patriarch.
For years, Jack Bumsted refused to sell anything outside the crime fiction genre, including his own published books. Instead, he would send potential buyers to another store, but would offer to sign the books if they came back with them.
Wendy Bumsted said that eventually changed in his later years.
Now, about 15 per cent of the store’s stock is of other genres, such as romance or children’s books.
The COVID-19 pandemic forced them to look at expanding their selection, as some customers turned to buying books through the store’s website, which is set up to allow purchasers to get anything from the publishers the Bumsteds have contracts with.
In 2019, the store sold fewer than 100 books online. That number jumped to more than 3,000 in 2020, as retailers had to deal with pandemic lockdowns.
After years of running a successful mail-order business, the store was able to quickly adapt when it had to temporarily shut its doors, said Michael Bumsted.
“We were not a store…that had to figure out how to get books to people when they weren’t here.”
He added being a community bookstore with a niche has helped the family stay in business when other retailers have struggled. Part of that has included building lasting relationships.
“Some people have put it in their wills that their books will come to us,” said Wendy Bumsted.
Some of those collections have included tips on traveling through Asia in the early 2000s or the history of Australian cricket.
Micheal Bumsted said they’ve had to learn to be patient with selling some of these more obscure titles, but eventually the time comes for them to find a new home.
“One of the great things about physical books is that they can be there for you when you are ready for them.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 15, 2024.
MONTREAL – Canada’s labour minister is praising both Air Canada and the union representing about 5,200 of its pilots for averting a work stoppage that would have disrupted travel for hundreds of thousands of passengers.
Steven MacKinnon’s comments came in a statement shared to social media shortly after Canada’s largest air carrier announced it had reached a tentative labour deal with the Air Line Pilots Association.
MacKinnon thanked both sides and federal mediators, saying the airline and its pilots approached negotiations with “seriousness and a resolve to get a deal.”
The tentative agreement averts a strike or lockout that could have begun as early as Wednesday for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, with flight cancellations expected before then.
The airline now says flights will continue as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.
Air Canada had called on the federal government to intervene in the dispute, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that would only happen if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.
This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.
To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.
“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.
She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.
Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.
The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.
“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.
Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.
Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.
A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.
Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.
It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.
Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.
Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.
“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.
Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.
Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.
Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.
However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.
“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.
Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).
“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”
The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.
It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.
Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.
For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.
Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.
“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.
The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.
“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.
It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.
“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.
Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.
Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.
“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
