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Los Angeles's luxury real estate market might be COVID-19 proof – BNNBloomberg.ca

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In late June, Lillian Lim, an independent developer whose company Sea Society LLC buys and renovates homes, listed a 2,400-square-foot craftsman-style home a short walk from the Larchmont Village neighborhood of Los Angeles.

She’d bought it for US$1.5 million in 2019 and done extensive renovations; within a week of listing it for US$2.495 million, she had a firm offer. Soon after, a second, all-cash offer above ask came through, and now the house is in escrow.

“I was nervous, but by the time it was ready to hit the market, there was an indication that people were still buying,” Lim says. “My main motivation was to get it out there by end of June, so I could be one of the first houses back on the market. My real fear was being late.”

The Los Angeles luxury real estate market, which briefly threatened to implode with the onset of COVID-19, is back in full swing.

“Even through May, the luxury market was really under pressure,” says Jonathan Woloshin, head of U.S. real estate at UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office. But the June data held a surprise: In Los Angeles county, the number of contracts signed for homes over US$2 million was up 34 per cent year over year. “And that was after May,” Woloshin says, “which was down 48.5 per cent.”

June Rebound

The beginning of 2020 was auspicious for the luxury real estate market in Los Angeles. Before March, median luxury prices were up 4.8 per cent from the quarter before, Elliman reported.

“Los Angeles has pivoted sharply into luxury, more than any market I track,” says Jonathan Miller, the president and chief executive officer of Miller Samuel Inc., an appraiser that prepares the Elliman reports. 

But when the city’s shutdown eliminated showings, not to mention entertainment industry jobs that provide sizable incomes to tens of thousands of city residents, the luxury market entered the equivalent of a black hole. “During a lockdown, there’s no price discovery,” says Miller. “People aren’t going in and out of homes,” which is why, he continues, “we saw a 43.5 per cent drop in [second-quarter] 2019 to [second-quarter] 2020 sales.”

When Los Angeles reopened, Miller says, “there was a release of pent-up demand, with surprising strength.”

Other cities have bounced back, too. In the third week of July, 155 contracts were signed in Manhattan, according to a market report from Urbandigs, nearly double the number of contracts signed the week before. Even so, “it should still be noted that the figure is still lower for the year (-15 per cent compared to 2019).” the report reads.

One reason for the disparity, Woloshin suggests, is that New Yorkers are trying to leave the city, whereas L.A. residents are looking for houses in which they can hunker down for the long haul. “You’re seeing some strength in Westchester, Connecticut, and Long Island,” he says. “People want to get out of the city.”

“Is New York as robust as California?” asks Woloshin rhetorically. “No.”

To its proponents, the strength of L.A.’s rebound indicates a market that just won’t quit. “Over the past five years, Los Angeles has become more of an international destination because of the lifestyle it affords clients,” Blankenship says. “Now more than ever, quality of life is important to people.”

Connie Blankenship, a director of estates at Douglas Elliman, has been able to work straight through. “I’ve basically sold two properties within the period. I have one in escrow now, another about to go in escrow, and a buyer who’s made offers multiple times.” Prices for the properties, she says, range from US$6 million to US$20 million. “I don’t want to say there has not been a disruption,” she says. “For most people, there has. But it’s been a case-by-case basis.”

Joe Cilic, a founding partner of Cilic Group at Sotheby’s International Realty, says he and his team have seven transactions scheduled to close in July. “To put that in perspective: The rest of the year combined, I had five. So the market has picked up considerably.”

Most of Cilic’s seven properties had contracts signed within the last 30 days, ranging from about US$2.5 million to US$7.5 million. “People want their pool; having space between them and their neighbors and having more land is more desirable,” Cilic says. “Clients are less concerned with the size of the house as they are [with] the size of the lot.”

Market Headwinds

But it’s not all blue skies. “So much is dependent on what happens with the virus,” Woloshin says. “Am I calling for an implosion in home prices? Absolutely not. But,” he continues, “there are certain parts of the market that could be vulnerable to price decline.” 

Among L.A. market headwinds is what Woloshin calls “the affordability issue,” meaning that wage increases haven’t kept pace with a rise in housing prices. A ballot measure to be decided in November called Proposition 19 would make it more expensive for family members to transfer primary residences to one another, among other changes. 

Plus, there’s an absence of international buyers, who “aren’t coming back anytime soon.”

But, Woloshin says, any bears should remember that California “has an outright shortage of shelter, both for rent and purchase. And that’s going to give some price support” to the market. “We are in uncharted waters,” he says.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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