Despite a sizeable drop in home prices over the past year and a slew of federal government measures aimed at addressing housing affordability, a new poll suggests Canadians are no more encouraged about breaking into the housing market.
Some 63 per cent of Canadians who don’t own a home have “given up” on ever owning one, according to the results of an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News published Wednesday. That figure is similar to a similar poll conducted a year earlier.
The findings show that while 76 per cent of respondents felt that owning a home was the best investment a person can make, nearly seven in 10 say that home ownership is now only for the rich.
Younger generations (those aged 18-34) were most likely to agree that owning a home is a major accomplishment, but also that it was a privilege reserved for the wealthy.
Sean Simpson, Ipsos senior vice-president, tells Global News that Canadians are still “upset” about the state of Canada’s housing market.
“There’s a feeling out there that despite the fact that homeownership continues to be a good investment and people believe that you’re better off financially if you own a home, something is holding them back,” he says.
Home prices have declined significantly over the past year, with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reporting a 19 per cent decline from the highs of the pandemic in February 2022 to the same month this year.
But driving those declines and an overall cooling in the housing market has been a surge in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate, which had raised mortgage rates and limited how much Canadians can afford to borrow. The central bank has adopted a conditional pause to rate hikes after raising its policy rate to 4.5 per cent from the rock-bottom lows that fuelled a flurry of housing activity in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Some 71 per cent of respondents to the survey said high interest rates were keeping them on the sidelines of the housing market. Three in 10 said they believed now was a good time for a first home purchase.
“Despite the fact that we’ve had a softening of housing prices over the last year and that interest rate increases have leveled and are perhaps going to be hopefully going down soon, attitudes have not changed,” Simpson says.
Lack of impact from government measures
Last year’s federal budget dedicated a number of announcements toward improving housing affordability, though experts say the impact of these items has either been muted, hard to measure or hasn’t come into effect yet.
The Liberal government also hasn’t offered a timeline for when it will roll out a possible Home Buyer’s Bill of Rights, which it floated could have measures including an end to blind bidding in the real estate market.
Rishi Sondhi, a TD Bank economist who covers Canada’s housing market, says the temporary ban on foreign buyers would have a “reduced impact” in Ontario and British Columbia, where earlier introductions of a tax on this segment likely “shook out” the demand here.
It’s hard to measure the impact of new tax rules targeting home flippers due to a lack of data on the phenomenon, he adds.
Whether federal government measures are having an impact on Canada’s housing market or not, Ottawa’s efforts are not translating to a substantial boost in confidence among buyers, Simpson says.
The Ipsos poll only shows 27 per cent of Canadians feel the federal government is doing enough to address housing affordability in the country, up two percentage points from a year ago.
“Despite consistently telling governments that housing is a priority, that we need to keep the dream of homeownership alive in Canada, Canadians believe that governments simply aren’t doing enough to act,” Simpson says.
1:10 Poilievre compares Trudeau to ‘shady contractor’ as leaders spar over housing affordability
Moving towards more housing affordability
Despite what Canadians may feel, economists tracking the affordability of homes in Canada say there’s been some modest improvement over the past year.
National Bank Financial’s housing affordability monitor tracks the real estate market in Canada based on a household’s ability to both save for a down payment and make monthly mortgage payments in their respective market.
For the first time in more than two years, housing affordability improved in the final quarter of 2022, National Bank reported in its latest report, ending the longest sequence of declining affordability since the late 1980s.
National Bank economists expect the trend to persist into 2023 as the housing correction continues and the Bank of Canada appears to be holding its benchmark rate steady.
Simpson agrees that if current trends hold, 2023 could see modest improvements in affordability.
While TD projects home prices will start to climb gradually again through the year, declining mortgage rates could open the door to more Canadians looking to enter the housing market.
He says this could flow from a likely peak in interest rates and eventual cuts from the central bank come 2024, as well as downward pressure on bond yields that drive fixed-rate mortgage rates.
And while the economy is likely to slow, Canadian households are projected to see modest income growth through the year, Sondhi says, helping to boost what prospective buyers can afford in the housing market.
“We do anticipate seeing some improvement in affordability moving forward,” he says.
However, Sondhi cautions that affordability will be “strained” unless the country makes significant strides toward improving the housing supply in the face of expected population growth.
While the past few years have seen a “robust” pace for housing starts, Sondhi says TD is expecting a slowdown on this front as demand diminishes. He notes, too, that starts are not the same as housing completions, and the building process has faced delays in recent years.
Simpson says governments need to “act courageously” and align across jurisdictional levels to get homes built.
The federal government recently launched its housing accelerator fund, which seeks to encourage municipalities to build homes quickly.
Simpson encourages existing homeowners, who still outnumber renters in Canada, to have “empathy” for those looking to get into the housing market and resist impulses like NIMBYism — attitudes that more dense development should exist, but “not in my backyard.”
“How can we act a little bit differently in order to make sure that that dream stays alive for those who are saving to be able to buy their first home?” Simpson asks.
“There are likely smaller things that we can collectively do that might shave off a little bit of value, but if it helps to build more affordable housing or housing for people’s children when they’re ready to buy, then it might be something that we need to look at.”
— with files from Global News’ Anne Gaviola
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 20 to 22, 2023, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
VANDERHOOF, B.C. – British Columbia Conservatives are promising changes they say will bring more stability to the province’s struggling forest industry.
Leader John Rustad announced his plan for the sector a week before the official launch of the provincial election campaign, saying a Conservative government would do away with stumpage fees paid when timber is harvested and instead put a tax on the final products that are produced.
Rustad said Saturday that under a provincial Conservative government, a small fee may be charged upfront, but the bulk would come at the end of the process, depending on what type of product is created.
He also promised to review how wildfires are managed, as well as streamline the permit process and review what he calls the province’s “uncompetitive cost structure.”
“British Columbia is by far the highest cost producers of any jurisdiction in North America. We need to be able to drive down those costs, so that our forest sector can actually be able to do the reinvestment, to be able to create the jobs and make sure that they’re still there to be able to support our communities,” he said.
The governing New Democrats meanwhile, say eliminating stumpage fees would inflame the softwood lumber dispute with the United States and hurt forestry workers.
In a statement issued by the NDP, Andrew Mercier, the party’s candidate in Langley-Willowbrook, said Rustad failed to support the industry when he was in government under the former BC Liberals.
“Not only will Rustad’s old thinking and recycled ideas fail to deliver, his proposal to eliminate stumpage would inflame the softwood lumber dispute — punishing forestry workers and communities,” Mercier said, accusing Rustad of ignoring the complexity of the challenges facing the industry.
The softwood lumber dispute between the U.S. and Canada stretches back decades. In August, the U.S. Department of Commerce nearly doubled duties on softwood lumber.
International Trade Minister Mary Ng has said Canada has taken steps to launch two legal challenges under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
Rustad said a provincial Conservative government would push hard to get a deal with the United States over the ongoing dispute “whether it’s with the rest of Canada or by itself.”
He said his party’s proposed changes are in the name of bringing “stability” and “hope” to the industry that has seen multiple closures of mills in rural communities over the last several years.
Most recently, Canfor Corp. decided to shutter two northern British Columbia sawmills earlier this month, leaving hundreds of workers unemployed by the end of the year.
According to the United Steelworkers union, Canfor has closed 10 mills in the province since November 2011, including nine in northern B.C.
Jeff Bromley, chair of the United Steelworkers wood council, said Saturday the idea of changes in favour of taxing the final product has been floated in the past.
He said the finer details of the Conservative plan will be important, but that the system needs to be improved and “new ideas are certainly something I’d be willing to entertain.”
“Something needs to happen, or the industry is just going to bleed and wither away and be a shadow of its former self,” Bromley said.
“Politics aside, if (Rustad) can come up with a policy that enables my members to work, then I would be supportive of that. But then I’m supportive of any government that would come up with policies and fibre for our mills to run. Period.”
When Canfor announced its latest closures, Forests Minister Bruce Ralston said the sector was a “foundational part” of the province and the current NDP government would work to support both local jobs and wood manufacturing operations.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — The San Francisco 49ers placed All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve because of his lingering calf and Achilles tendon injuries.
The move made Saturday means McCaffrey will miss at least four more games after already sitting out the season opener. He is eligible to return for a Thursday night game in Seattle on Oct. 10.
McCaffrey got hurt early in training camp and missed four weeks of practice before returning to the field on a limited basis last week. He was a late scratch for the opener on Monday night against the Jets and now is sidelined again after experiencing pain following practice on Thursday.
McCaffrey led the NFL last season with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and was tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns, winning AP Offensive Player of the Year.
The Niners made up for McCaffrey’s absence thanks to a strong performance from backup Jordan Mason, who had 28 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco’s 32-19 victory over the New York Jets. Mason is set to start again Sunday at Minnesota.
After missing 23 games because of injuries in his final two full seasons with Carolina, McCaffrey had been healthy the past two seasons.
He missed only one game combined in 2022-23 — a meaningless Week 18 game last season for San Francisco when he had a sore calf. His 798 combined touches from scrimmage in the regular season and playoffs were the third most for any player in a two-year span in the past 10 years.
Now San Francisco will likely rely heavily on Mason, a former undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech who had 83 carries his first two seasons. He had at least 10 touches just twice before the season opener, when his 28 carries were the most by a 49ers player in a regular-season game since Frank Gore had 31 against Seattle on Oct. 30, 2011.
The Niners also have fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. on the active roster. Guerendo played three offensive snaps with no touches in the opener. Taylor had 65 carries for Green Bay from 2021-23.
San Francisco also elevated safety Tracy Walker III from the practice squad for Sunday’s game against Minnesota.
BRUSSELS – Canada walked away with some hardware at the Diamond League track and field competition Saturday.
Alysha Newman finished third in women’s pole vault, while Marco Arop did the same in the men’s 800-metre race.
Newman won a bronze medal in her event at the recent Paris Olympics. Arop grabbed silver at the same distance in France last month.
Australia’s Nina Kennedy, who captured gold at the Summer Games, again finished atop the podium. Sandi Morris of the United States was second.
Newman set a national record when she secured Canada’s first-ever pole vault medal with a bronze at the Olympics with a height of 4.85 metres. The 30-year-old from London, Ont., cleared 4.80 metres in her second attempt Saturday, but was unable conquer 4.88 metres on three attempts.
Arop, a 25-year-old from Edmonton, finished the men’s 800 metres with a time of one minute 43.25 seconds. Olympic gold medallist Emmanuel Wanyonyi of Kenya was first with a time of 1:42.70.
Djamel Sedjati, edged out by Arop for silver in Paris last month, was second 1:42.87
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
