Majority say BOJ's negative rate policy has not boosted economy, prices: Reuters poll - TheChronicleHerald.ca | Canada News Media
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Majority say BOJ's negative rate policy has not boosted economy, prices: Reuters poll – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Kaori Kaneko

TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy has had little positive impact on the economy and prices, over half of economists surveyed by Reuters said.

The views underline the mounting challenges facing the central bank in trying to fire up inflation to its 2% target, as years of ultra-loose monetary policy and near-zero rates have had only modest success at the cost of eroding financial institutions’ margins.

That explains why a majority of the polled economists expect the next move by the BOJ would be to taper its massive stimulus, possibly sometime next year.

It also suggests criticism over the controversial policy is spreading beyond Europe, where countries such as Switzerland are under increasing pressure to adjust its ultra-loose policy to address the demerits of negative rates.

Among the 41 economists polled by Reuters Jan. 6-17, 24 said the BOJ’s negative rate policy did not help the economy and prices, while 17 said they did.

“Negative rates may have had some positive effects on financial and property markets. But the side-effects, such as the hit to banks’ earnings, have also been big,” said Mitsumaru Kumagai, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research.

“As a whole, we don’t think there has been much positive effect” on Japan’s economy and prices, he said.

The poll also showed 28 of 42 economists, or 67%, expect the BOJ’s next step to be a withdrawal of stimulus, up from 61% in the December poll. Those who predicted such action said it would happen sometime next year or later, the poll showed.

The ratio of those who predict the BOJ’s next move to be an expansion of stimulus stood at 33%, down from the previous month’s 39%.

“We don’t expect the BOJ to ease further in the near term,” said Arata Oto, market economist at Societe Generale Securities Japan.

“The BOJ is expected to maintain its scenario projecting a pick-up in global growth, while sticking to its easy-policy bias to help the economy build momentum to hit its 2% inflation target,” he said.

That view was backed by a Reuters poll predicting that the BOJ will keep monetary policy steady and nudge up its economic growth forecast at a two-day rate review ending on Tuesday, signaling that no immediate easing was forthcoming despite lingering overseas risks.

STAGNANT GROWTH AHEAD

Under a policy dubbed yield curve control, the BOJ guides short-term rates at -0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield around 0% via aggressive asset buying.

Inflation remains distant from the BOJ’s 2% target despite years of heavy money printing, forcing the central bank to maintain a radical stimulus program despite the rising cost such as the hit to financial institutions’ profits.

Analysts polled expect core consumer inflation, which includes oil products but not fresh foods, to hit 0.6% in the current fiscal year ending in March and 0.5% the following year.

They also expect Japan’s economy to have shrunk an annualized 3.6% in the October-December quarter due to the hit from October’s sales tax hike, and rebound by a modest 0.8% in the current quarter.

Japan’s economy will likely expand 0.5% in the fiscal year beginning in April and 0.8% the following year, thanks in part to an expected boost from the government’s $122 billion fiscal stimulus package, the poll showed.

(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Polling by Shaloo Shrivastava and Khushboo Mittal; Editing by Leika Kihara & Shri Navaratnam)

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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