Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim is expected to navigate between deepening economic ties with his country’s biggest trading partner and tackling thorny issues such as the South China Sea during his first visit to China as prime minister, analysts say.
Anwar will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday as part of a four-day visit that will also see him hold talks with Chinese business leaders and Premier Li Qiang.
Anwar’s talks with Xi are expected to focus on “concrete measures that can be taken in the fields of trade, political cooperation, prevention of corruption and civilisational issues,” Malaysian Foreign Minister Zambry Abdul Kadir said on Wednesday.
Anwar, who arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, is also scheduled to meet with National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji and executives of the China Communications Construction Company, the contractor of Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link project.
Anwar, who was elected as Malaysia’s 10th prime minister in November, is making his visit against the backdrop of an escalating United States-China trade and tech war that complicates Malaysia’s efforts to maintain positive relations with the world’s two biggest superpowers.
China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner for 14 consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching $203.6bn in 2022, but Kuala Lumpur also maintains close economic and security ties with the US – two-way trade hit $72.9bn last year – which has sanctioned numerous Chinese firms that form part of the global supply chain.
Malaysia is the world’s sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors, accounting for 6.3 percent of the world’s total. The chips, crucial components of everyday electronics, have been a key target of US sanctions aimed at hobbling China’s tech sector.
If Malaysia wishes to boost cooperation with China, especially in the tech sector, it will need to consider the possibility of US pressure and how to “navigate the delicate line of advancing technological cooperation for national interests while still being able to convince both US and China that such cooperation will not affect bilateral relations politically,” Hoo Chiew Ping, an international relations lecturer at the National University of Malaysia, told Al Jazeera.
Further US sanctions could potentially affect some Malaysian companies that form part of China’s supply chain, said Ngeow Chow Bing, the director of Universiti Malaya’s Institute of China Studies.
“So far that hasn’t happened yet on a large scale but that is something which we have to watch out for,” Ngeow told Al Jazeera. Shahriman Lockman, director at the Kuala Lumpur-based Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), said Malaysia “will simply have to adapt” and try to find opportunities even as US-China relations become more fraught.
“Anwar knows this,” Lockman told Al Jazeera. “In China, Anwar is bound to be effusive about the relationship. That’s simply what one does in Beijing. After all, this year is the 10th anniversary of the Malaysia-China comprehensive strategic partnership. And next year is the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations.”
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is scheduled to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday [File: Alexei Maishev/Kremlin via Reuters]
For Southeast Asia, which has traditionally sought to balance its relations with great powers, the US-China rivalry has been a blessing and a curse.
Malaysia has been among the biggest beneficiaries of trade and investment diversion as US and Chinese companies seek to diversify their geographic exposure to trade restrictions. A 2019 report by Nomura found that Malaysia was the fourth-biggest winner of the US-China trade war, after Vietnam, Taiwan and Chile, with exports of waste and scrap alloy, natural gas and benzol all benefitting from the tensions.
China’s overall direct investment in Malaysia rose to 9.7 billion Malaysian ringgit ($2.2bn) in 2022, up 23.5 percent from 7.9 billion ringgit ($1.8bn) in 2021. The US was Malaysia’s top source of investment last year, investing 43.9 billion ringgit ($9.9bn), followed by Singapore and Japan.
“Anwar is likely to promote Malaysia as the destination of choice for Chinese investors seeking to lessen the impact of the trade war as well as to find new markets in the region,” Yeah Kim Leng, an economics professor at Malaysia’s Sunway University and a member of an advisory committee to Anwar, told Al Jazeera.
“Since Malaysia imports more from China than it exports, it will be a good opportunity for the PM to push for China to import more from Malaysia,” Yeah said.
Yeah added that Malaysia could also tap into China’s rapidly advancing digital technologies to enhance the productivity and competitiveness of its small and medium-sized sectors.
The South China Sea is a source of tension between China and Southeast Asian countries including Malaysia [Ritchie B. Tongo/pool photo via AP]
Analysts suggest that Anwar will be cautious about raising sensitive issues during his trip, including China’s treatment of the Uighurs and other ethnic minority Muslims, whose plight he highlighted during his many years as an opposition leader.
“I believe that Anwar will take a pragmatic approach towards China. Being a prime minister and no longer a mere opposition leader, Anwar can no longer afford to make references of a less constructive character when it comes to China. It’s just what it is,” said Lockman of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies.
“So I don’t believe that he’ll be raising the issue of Uighurs, though he’ll probably underscore the need to respect international law in the South China Sea. Anwar needs to think of Malaysia first.”
Ngeow of Universiti Malaya said the possibility of Anwar raising the Uighur issue in private is “quite low” but cannot be ruled out. Ngeow added, however, that the South China Sea dispute – Beijing claims sovereignty over more than 90 percent of the strategic waterway despite the territorial claims of several Southeast Asian countries including Malaysia – is likely to be raised in private as well as noted publicly using restrained language.
Chinese Coast Guard ships have frequently sailed into Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, where Malaysia’s state-owned Petronas gas and oil company is drilling for hydrocarbons.
In 2021, 16 Chinese military aircraft came within 60 nautical miles (112 km) of Sarawak state, prompting Kuala Lumpur to summon the Chinese ambassador and accuse Beijing of posing a “serious threat to national sovereignty and flight safety”. China’s embassy in Kuala Lumpur said at the time its aircraft had been exercising “the freedom of overflight in the relevant airspace”.
Hoo of the University of Malaysia believes it will be crucial for Anwar to discuss the South China Sea issue during his trip. “One main issue is to avoid inevitable clashes on the sea between the Coast Guard and to ensure incidents like the PLAAF (People’s Liberation Army Air Force) incursion over Malaysian maritime airspace will not occur again in private conversation,” Hoo said.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
