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Some might not accept this apology or that this even explains why he has not previously spoken to the family. Certainly, it won’t satisfy his political enemies — at least a few of whom are gleefully responsible for ensuring this matter has come forward during the 2020 Saskatchewan election campaign.
But contrary to some social media posts, Moe has never shied away from the accident story that was in newspapers when it happened 1997.
Those who have asked Moe have heard his story that he was driving to work at his business in farm chemical application that May morning after having breakfast with his grandparents when he made his fatal error.
He says he missed the stop sign because of the sunrise. Moe was charged with the traffic violation of driving without due care and attention, but was not charged with any Criminal Code offences by RCMP officers who attended and reconstructed the accident.
Some may find this appalling and point to the Humboldt Broncos bus crash where trucker Jaskirat Singh Sidhu, 30, pleaded guilty to 29 counts of dangerous driving causing death or bodily injury. He was sentenced to eight years. In that case, Sidhu was determined to have been sufficiently distracted looking back at a loose tarp to warrant dangerous driving charges.
However, accidents — even ones with fatalities and at-fault drivers — don’t always produce criminal charges. Consider the Sept. 10, 2004 crash when four youths were killed on the Trans-Canada Highway just south of Regina when an underaged driver crossed the median into a semi. Prosecutors did not charge the driver.
A look at stock market history around elections and whether politics really matter – CNBC
Does it matter for stocks who wins the White House? Is there anything unusual about the candidates this year that could impact the markets, regardless of who wins?
For answers, we turn to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research, who has studied elections and the impact on markets going back to 1900.
This Q&A was derived from written research and an interview with Clissold. It has been edited for brevity.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about this election and the impact on the markets. What’s your take?
Part of the problem is that this is an unusual situation. The incumbent is in the middle of a recession and a big drop in the market, even though that occurred earlier in the year. I don’t mean a “recession” as technically defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); I mean that a large portion of the U.S. believes we are in a recession.
Why is that perception important?
When those conditions are in place, the incumbent is a serious underdog. Since 1900, the incumbent party has won five times and lost nine when there was a 20% decline in the DJIA or a recession in the election year. But the last incumbent to win under these circumstances was Truman in 1948. Since 1952, no party has retained the White House when there was either a 20% decline in the markets or a recession, and both have taken place in 2020.
But isn’t this a unique recession? This was caused by Covid-19.
Yes. Because the cause of the 2020 recession is an exogenous shock, one of the biggest questions heading into the fall is whether voters will blame President Trump for the economy. Most recessions have a more complicated genesis than this one, and Trump is certainly trying to make the case that he is the better one to handle this.
Is there anything unique about Biden? He is proposing changes in the tax code on both a personal and corporate level. That matters to Wall Street, doesn’t it?
Yes. The main concerns we have heard from our clients is that higher taxes and more regulations would be detrimental to stocks.
OK, you’ve made it clear the circumstances are unusual this year. But what about the historical record? Does the stock market do better or worse when a Republican or a Democrat is in the White House?
The markets tend to go up whether there is a Democrat or a Republican in the White House. When adjusted for inflation, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 3.8% annually under Democrats since 1900, versus 1.1% under Republicans.
Why is that?
The President is not as influential on the economy as many people think. There are many factors that drive returns and who is in the White House is only one of many factors, including the fact that the U.S. is a capitalist society, where the means of production is mostly in private hands, and that there is a court system that enforces contracts.
What about when one party controls both the Congress and the White House?
When Republicans control both the Congress and the White House, returns have averaged 7.09% a year. Under Democratic presidents, the market has risen faster when there has been a check on their power. When Democrats control the Congress and the Presidency, the market has risen an average of 2.96% a year, but 5.21% with a Democratic President and a Republican Congress.
What about immediately after an election, going into the end of the year?
The market tends to perform better when the incumbent party wins than when the incumbent party loses.
Why is that?
It’s likely because the market often reacts to uncertainty, and a change in party leadership represents an additional unknown.
Does it matter for that short period whether it is a Republican or Democrat who has won or lost?
The strongest gains going into the end of the year occur when incumbent Republicans win, and the biggest losses when incumbent Republicans have lost, on average, likely because Republicans often positioned themselves as pro-business.
Does that outperformance when the Republicans have lost extend into the following year?
No. That relative performance has reversed in post-election years, with the strongest average gain in years following incumbent Republican losses.
So what does this tell us? Seems like this debate about the Republican vs. Democrat impact on stocks is a lot about perception.
Yes. Party control may be more about sentiment than fundamentals in most cases. Also, once the election is over, investors can focus on other things, like earnings, economic growth, or interest rates, so whatever sentiment-driven market action that occurs in the election year tends to fade and reverse itself.
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US VP warns Dems against playing politics over vaccine – Anadolu Agency
US Vice President Mike Pence has warned Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris against playing politics with COVID-19 issues.
Biden, Harris, and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, need to “stop playing politics with people’s lives by undermining confidence in a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine,” Pence told Fox News on Sunday.
“The president has speeded up the process through Operation Warp Speed, but we cut no corners on safety, and we are not going to distribute a coronavirus vaccine until the FDA [US Food and Drug Administration] and independent evaluation say it is safe and effective for the American people,” he added.
The FDA approved Thursday Gilead Sciences’ Remdesivir, a drug touted by President Donald Trump who received it earlier this month after contracting COVID-19.
On Friday, the FDA also gave the green light to Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca to continue their vaccine trials after both companies earlier paused their trials as some participants in trials became ill.
Some Democrats have claimed Trump was acting reckless in coronavirus treatment options, arguing the president has been expediting trials to have a vaccine ready before the election on Nov. 3.
“I trust vaccines, I trust scientists, but I don’t trust Donald Trump,” Biden said last month.
The US administration implemented Operation Warp Speed, which offers to pay Pfizer and BioNTech $1.95 billion for 100 million doses if their vaccine proves “safe and effective”, and a $1.6 billion deal with Novavax to manufacture and deliver 100 million doses by next January.
The US has more than 8.63 million cases and over 225,000 deaths from COVID-19, according to latest data from Johns Hopkins University. Globally, figures show over 43 million infections and more than 1.15 million deaths.
Commons showdown highlights tension between politics and science – The Battlefords News-Optimist
OTTAWA — Monday’s vote on a Conservative motion to launch an in-depth review of the Liberal government’s COVID-19 response highlights a key challenge of pandemic politics: how to hold a government accountable for decisions based on science, when the science itself is changing nearly every day.
The opposition wants a committee probe into everything from why regulators are taking so long to approve rapid testing to an early decision not to close the border to international travel, and what concerns the Liberals is how that probe is being framed.
“One of the narratives that I find most distressing coming from the opposition, is that somehow because advice changed at some point that the government was hiding information or that the government was giving misinformation,” Health Minister Patty Hajdu said late last week.
“And nothing could be further from the truth.”
It’s not the science itself that’s up for debate, said Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole.
“In a pandemic, borders, since the Middle Ages, have been part of a stop of spreading of the virus and that was a failure of elected officials to put the health of Canadians first,” O’Toole told reporters last week.
“There has been conflicting information on masks and other things. My concern is that the Trudeau government relies more on open source data from China than our own science and intelligence experts.”
The relationship between a nation’s scientists and their senior politicians is a challenging one, said Ian Culbert, executive director of the Canadian Public Health Association.
Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam provides the scientific evidence there is, but at the end of the day, it is the politicians who make the call, he said.
A decision on whether or not to close the borders is a good example, he said.
In the early days of the pandemic, the World Health Organization cautioned against widespread border closures. Scientific research has suggested there’s little medical benefit to them and the economic impacts can be severe and wide-ranging.
But the optics of border closures, the idea that if countries can keep out a virus out they will be immune, creates political pressure to act, Culbert said .
“The tension between what is in the public’s good, as opposed to all of the varying political considerations the politicians have to take into consideration — there’s always a tension there,” Culbert said.
While heated, the interplay between Liberal government and Opposition Conservatives is a far cry from the hyper-partisanship around pandemic response in the U.S., where even the president has circulated misinformation and challenged that country’s top scientists.
Canadian researchers studying the response of political elites here in the early days of the pandemic found no evidence of MPs casting doubt on the seriousness of the pandemic, or spreading conspiracy theories about it. In fact, there was a cross partisan consensus around how seriously it needed to be taken.
“As far as we can tell, that story hasn’t changed,” said Eric Merkley, a University of Toronto political scientist who led the study.
Both he and Culbert said a review of the Liberals’ pandemic response is warranted, but a balancing act is required.
“Everyone has 20/20 hindsight and thinks that they can go, look back, and and point to points at which bad decisions were made,” Culbert said.
“But that’s with the knowledge that we have today. We didn’t have that knowledge back in March.”
The Liberals have sometimes hit back at criticism by pointing to how the previous Conservative government handled the science and health files, including budget cuts and efforts to muzzle scientists.
But critics can’t be painted as anti-science for asking questions, Merkley said.
“There’s plenty of scope for democratic debate about proper responses to the pandemic, there’s plenty of scope for disagreement,” Merkley said.
“And just because there’s that disagreement and an Opposition party holding government accountable, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, that’s a sign of a healthy democracy.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2020.
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