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Manitoba economy gains 8,100 jobs since July: StatCan report – Winnipeg Sun

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In Manitoba, full-time employment was up 5,700, a 1.1% increase, almost equal to the national average. Part-time employment increased by 2,400, an increase of 1.9%. The provincial unemployment rate edged down to 8.1%, which ranks second in Canada. Private sector employment, including self-employed, increased by 8,200, a 1.8% gain from August to July.

Overall, the pace of gains in Canada’s job market slowed in August, as Statistics Canada reported the economy added 246,000 jobs, and other data that experts say suggests billions in government benefits isn’t stopping people from getting back into the workforce.

Friday’s report, released just ahead of the Labour Day long weekend, marked the fourth consecutive month of gains after jobless claims spiked during lockdowns in March and April. That brings the overall employment number to within 1.1 million of pre-pandemic levels.

The vast majority of gains were in full-time work, which recorded a bump of 206,000, and which had been lagging behind gains in part-time employment, which rose by 40,000 from July.

In Manitoba, youth employment increased by 4,400 positions, further indication that Manitoba’s youth programs are working.

“We have led the country with some of the most effective economic development and support programs to help Manitobans navigate and bounce back from this challenging time,” said Eichler. “From the beginning, we have targeted our #RestartMB programs with a focus on getting Manitobans back to work. The youth employment bump especially is a testament to the success of our youth employment initiatives, such as our Urban and Conservation Green Teams, the Student Jobs MB portal, and our Student Wage Subsidy.”

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Canada's economy to take a hit from the second wave, economist says — and some sectors may never recover – Toronto Star

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The Canadian economy faces a long, slow recovery from COVID-19, and some industries are never bouncing back to where they were, according to a new forecast from a business think tank.

The prediction, from the Conference Board of Canada, says things won’t get back to anywhere close to normal until there’s a vaccine to battle COVID-19, likely sometime next June.

“Until we’re seeing COVID fully behind us, it’s going to be a rough ride. We won’t see a complete recovery until there’s a vaccine and this has been brought under control. The biggest risk is if a vaccine ultimately isn’t found,” said Conference Board chief economist Pedro Antunes in an interview.

The Conference Board’s argument was bolstered by a report from Statistics Canada on Wednesday showing the size of the Canadian economy is still six per cent smaller than in February, and that just a quarter of industries have hit their pre-pandemic size.

Statistics Canada showed Canadian Gross Domestic Product grew by three per cent in July, after having grown by 6.5 per cent in June. The StatsCan report also said data is expected to show that the economy grew by just one per cent in August.

While the economy started to bounce back in May and June as COVID-related restrictions eased up, the start of the second wave spells more trouble, said Antunes.

“Before, we were trying to flatten the curve of new COVID cases. Now, it’s a case of COVID flattening the recovery,” Antunes said.

Consumer spending picked up as restrictions started to loosen, Antunes said, partly because of pent-up demand, and partly because of government support programs including the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and the Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy.

“It was consumers to the rescue with a lot of borrowed government money,” said Antunes, who predicted the CEWS will eventually be extended until next June.

Some sectors will struggle more than others as the second wave continues, Antunes said, singling out the hospitality, travel and cultural industries.

Other industries are seeing disruptions which are likely permanent, he added. Among the most heavily-affected sectors in the long term, Antunes predicted, will be bricks and mortar retailers, and commercial real estate, particularly office buildings. Simply put, companies are realizing that having employees doing their jobs from home works just fine.

“I think telecommuting will become permanent in a lot of cases. And that also means there will be a lot of office space on the market,” said Antunes.

For retailers, a gradual move to e-commerce turned into a tidal wave because of COVID-19, and many customers won’t be going back once COVID ends.

“I think a lot of those changes are permanent. We had more of an increase in e-commerce in a few months than we did in six years,” said Antunes.

That assessment is backed up by retail analyst Lisa Hutcheson.

“The longer people shop online, the less likely they are to go back,” said Hutcheson, managing director of retail consultancy J.C. Williams Group.

The speedy rise in e-commerce, which Hutcheson said was equivalent to a decade’s worth of increases, has already knocked some companies out of business entirely.

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“The retailers who weren’t making these changes are likely the ones who’ve gone out of business,” said Hutcheson.

In a recent survey, J.C. Williams Group found that 39 per cent of Canadians say they’ll stick with their current shopping habits even once an effective treatment for COVID-19 is found, Hutcheson said.

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Economic rebound slows as Statistics Canada says economy grew 3.0 per cent in July – Toronto Star

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OTTAWA – The pace of Canada’s economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic slowed in July, and maybe even more in August, Statistics Canada says, suggesting the country is in what experts described as a long, choppy path to recovery.

Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew by three per cent in July, matching the agency’s preliminary estimate and economists’ expectations, but below the 6.5 per cent recorded in June, and May’s 4.8 per cent bump.

Gains have been linked to the loosening of restrictions that forced non-essential businesses to close in March and April, but they haven’t been enough to haul the economy back to pre-pandemic levels.

Overall, Statistics Canada said the economy in July was about six per cent below its pre-pandemic level in February, even if some sectors like retail and real estate have recouped their losses and then some.

Looking at August, the statistics agency said growth likely continued albeit at a slower pace as it provided a preliminary estimate of a one per cent climb in GDP for the month.

“That’s suggesting the steam in the recovery is going away and so, this for me is suggesting that we might be moving from a quick rebound phase of the recovery to a more challenging phase,” said TD senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam.

The August figure will be finalized late next month.

The path of the recovery over the coming months will be tied to the path the pandemic takes, which could lead to rollbacks of reopening measures.

Rising case counts have prompted such calls as the country heads into what several public health officials say is a second wave of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The increase in COVID-19 infections, coupled with the August figure suggests the sharp rebound in the third quarter won’t carry over to the final three months of the year, said CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld.

“Easing up on COVID-19 restraints fed into solid Canadian GDP gains in July and August, but the concerns now are whether we will pay for some of that greater openness,” Shenfeld wrote in a note.

The Conference Board of Canada said health measures and testing should prevent another full shutdown of economic activity earlier this year, but warned of localized lockdowns as one hurdle.

The pandemic is going to flatten the recovery curve for the next year at least, said Pedro Antunes, the organization’s chief economist.

“We’re going to be creating fewer jobs on a monthly basis going forward, we’re going to see the increases in economic activity or GDP being much more subdued in terms of their increases overall,” he said.

The Conference Board’s outlook expected the unemployment rate won’t fall back to its pre-pandemic levels until 2025.

Thanabalasingam said it could be early 2022 before before the economy gets back to where it was prior to COVID-19.

July’s GDP report from Statistics Canada noted that all 20 industrial sectors it tracks posted increases in July, with agriculture, utilities, finance, insurance and real estate sectors recouping losses suffered since the start the pandemic.

Manufacturing grew 5.9 per cent in July, following a 15.1 per cent expansion in June as more operations ramped up production, but still remained about six per cent below where it was pre-pandemic.

The hard-hit accommodations and food services sector posted a third consecutive month of double-digit increases, jumping 20.1 per cent in July.

Thanabalasingam said despite the bump, the amount of activity in the industry was about two-thirds of where it was in February, as more people went shopping and case numbers dropped.

“There’s still a very, very long way to go, even though they’re posting these strong growth rates,” he said.

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“My worry is that as caseloads continue to rise and some of these provinces think about rolling back some of those reopening measures . . . then is this as good as it could get for these sectors?”

The health care and social assistance sector rose by 3.7 per cent in July, as more doctors, dentists and diagnostic laboratories reopened in line with the rollback of restrictions.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 30, 2020.

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31.4 per cent spring slide for a U.S. economy likely to shrink in 2020 – CTV News

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WASHINGTON —
The U.S. economy plunged at an unprecedented rate this spring and even with a record rebound expected in the just-ended third quarter, the U.S. economy will likely shrink this year, the first time that has happened since the Great Recession.

The gross domestic product, the economy’s total output of goods and services, fell at a rate of 31.4% in the April-June quarter, only slightly changed from the 31.7% drop estimated one month ago, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The government’s last look at the second quarter showed a decline that was more than three times larger than the fall of 10% in the first quarter of 1958 when Dwight Eisenhower was president, which had been the largest decline in U.S. history.

Economists believe the economy will expand at an annual rate of 30% in the current quarter as businesses have re-opened and millions of people have gone back to work. That would shatter the old record for a quarterly GDP increase, a 16.7% surge in the first quarter of 1950 when Harry Truman was president.

The government will not release its July-September GDP report until Oct. 29, just five days before the presidential election.

While President Donald Trump is counting on an economic rebound to convince voters to give him a second term, economists said any such bounce back this year is a longshot.

Economists are forecasting that growth will slow significantly in the final three months of this year to a rate of around 4% and the U.S. could actually topple back into a recession if Congress fails to pass another stimulus measure or if there is a resurgence of COVID-19. There are upticks in infections occurring right now in some regions of the country, including New York.

“There are a lot of potential pitfalls out there,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services. “We are still dealing with a number of significant reductions because of the pandemic.”

In 2020, economists expect GDP to fall by around 4% , which would mark the first annual decline in GDP since a drop of 2.5% in 2009 during the recession triggered by the 2008 financial crisis.

“With economic momentum cooling, fiscal stimulus expiring, flu season approaching and election uncertainty rising, the main question is how strong the labour market will be going into the fourth quarter,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

“With the prospect of additinal fiscal aid dwindling, consumers, businesses and local governments will have to fend for themselves in the coming months,” Daco said.

The Trump administration is forecasting solid growth in coming quarters that will restore all of the output lost to the pandemic. Yet most economists believe it could take some time for all the lost output to be restored and they don’t rule out a return to shrinking GDP if no further government support is forthcoming.

So far this year, the economy fell at a 5% rate in the first quarter, signalling an end to a nearly 11-year-long economic expansion, the longest in U.S. history. That drop was followed by the second quarter decline of 31.4%, which was initially estimated two months ago as a drop of 32.9%, and then revised to a decline of 31.7% last month.

The slight upward revision in this report reflected less of a plunge in consumer spending than had been estimated. It was still a record fall at a rate of 33.2%, but last month projections were for a decline of 34.1%. This improvement was offset somewhat by downward revisions to exports and to business investment.

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