A low inflation rate in Manitoba is a sign the province’s gas tax holiday is working, the premier is boasting, but the low rate may also demonstrate the economy he presides over is slumping.
Premier Wab Kinew hosted a news conference Tuesday to celebrate Manitoba’s annual inflation rate dropping to 0.8 per cent in January, which is the lowest growth in a country struggling mightily with the rising cost of living.
Statistics Canada acknowledges in its report that Manitoba’s decision to remove the provincial gas tax temporarily, beginning in January, has contributed to its low inflation rate.
Kinew treated the report as validation of his government’s decision.
“Governments can’t do everything, and we recognize that, but governments can do some things. And I’m very proud that in the first few months of our administration taking office, we have done one thing to make your life more affordable,” Kinew said.
“Of course, the fight and the ongoing impacts of inflation are by no means over, but today the good news is we are taking action to help you and your family.”
Gas-tax cut helps tank inflation
Starting on Jan. 1, Manitoba drivers stopped paying the provincial 14 cent-a-litre tax on gasoline and diesel fuel. The suspension will last for at least six months, with the option to extend it for the duration of the year.
While Manitoba’s inflation rate was already the country’s lowest (1.7 per cent last December) prior to the gas tax holiday, Statistics Canada said in a statement the lower price of gas was the “largest contributor” to Manitoba’s inflationary decline and had “roughly twice the impact” of the other categories the agency measures to assess inflation.
Other factors include the price of groceries increasing at a slower rate year-over-year, and a lower cost for air transportation, Statistics Canada said.
“We expected to be able to lower the inflation rate in Manitoba by cutting the provincial fuel tax, and now we have the concrete evidence to back that up,” Kinew told reporters.
On a nationwide level, Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2.9 per cent in January, mostly due to a deceleration in the price of gas.
Manitoba’s 14 cent-a-litre reduction on gas prices ultimately had an impact on the national inflationary average.
Shiu-Yik Au, an assistant professor of finance at the University of Manitoba’s Asper School of Business, said the price of gas has an outsized role on the inflation rate because energy costs impact many other factors, ranging from grocery prices to business expenses.
Still, a slowing inflation rate could be a sign that Manitoba’s economy is slumping, Au said. He noted the Bank of Canada prefers interest rate growth in the range of one to three per cent.
“We’re starting to drift toward the too few, too little” category, Au said.
Shiu-Yik Au, an assistant professor of accounting and finance at the Asper School of Business, says he’s wary of the province reporting an inflation growth rate in January that falls below one per cent. (Submitted by Shiu-Yik Au)
He said Kinew is right to talk up the provincial economy to bolster consumer confidence, since people tend to spend less when they feel the economy is sagging.
“If they cut back spending, it’s going to slow down economic growth, which is going to lead to slightly lower inflation,” Au said, while indicating one month doesn’t signify a trend on its own.
Deloitte Canada, however, recently pegged Manitoba’s economic growth in 2024 at a “relatively subdued” 0.4 per cent. The firm anticipates a “rough ride” for the manufacturing sector and expects households to “pull back” on spending, although the construction of various projects will offset some of those losses.
Asked about the various economic forecasts projecting some headwinds for the province, Kinew said his government always wants to “see more growth” before again pointing to the low inflation rate as a good sign for the provincial economy.
PCs worry about other taxes
In a statement, Obby Khan, the Progressive Conservatives’ finance critic, said the NDP government is “distracting” Manitoba with short-term tax relief while also letting school divisions raise school taxes without penalizing them and continuing to charge the federal carbon tax — slated to increase in April — on home heating bills.
Kinew wouldn’t reveal on Tuesday if his government would extend the fuel-tax cut into the second half of 2024.
While he’s encouraged by the lower inflation rate, the premier said interest rates remain high and are affecting people’s ability to pay their mortgages and other debts.
Kinew said his government would help Manitobans so long as those impacts are felt, but he wouldn’t specify how.
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
