The March 8 NHL trade deadline is almost here, which means it’s a perfect time to take another (closer) look at the defencemen who could be available to the Toronto Maple Leafs and would best help their chances of chasing down a Stanley Cup.
Ideally, the Leafs are landing a righty to play with Morgan Rielly in their top four. It’s possible they add another lefty, though, what with how few righties of quality may be available, not to mention the ability of TJ Brodie, Jake McCabe and Simon Benoit to play both sides to varying degrees.
Who fits? Who doesn’t? Let’s take a look.
The most logical fits
Will Borgen
Borgen didn’t crack Chris Johnston’s trade board, and for good reason in all likelihood. Though the Seattle Kraken’s playoff chances are fading, they have Borgen under contract for another season at modest money ($2.7 million cap hit). In short, they aren’t going to feel any pressure to move the 27-year-old righty, not unless they’re bowled over (presumably) with a great offer. Borgen was mostly a third-pairing dude until this season, which has seen him rise onto Seattle’s No. 2 combo with Jamie Oleksiak. In Toronto, he could hook up with Rielly. And while that twosome probably wouldn’t be the go-to top-line deterrent, the Leafs could build three decent-to-good pairs:
| Pairing | LD | RD |
|---|---|---|
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Borgen’s appeal comes down to his size and physicality: He’s 6 feet, 3 inches and more than 200 pounds and one of the most physical defencemen in the league. And he has a contract that solves a problem for next season along with this one.
Noah Hanifin
Hanifin makes a lot of sense for the Leafs. However, the consensus seems to be that he’ll be sent to the U.S., where he’ll be more inclined to sign his next contract. Moving on.
Adam Larsson
If he hasn’t already, Brad Treliving should make a call to Ron Francis to see if the Kraken have any interest in dealing Larsson. A longtime (presumed) target of the Leafs during his Edmonton days, Larsson would still fit the team’s needs today, even at 31. Namely, a sure-fire right-shooting, top-four defenceman who can handle difficult minutes. The bonus is Larsson being signed for a very reasonable $4 million cap hit for next season. In theory, that makes Larsson worth the price of say, a first-round pick, more than someone like Chris Tanev, who’s older, more injury-prone and without a contract for next season. Does a first-round pick alone get it done? If it does, the Leafs should probably consider it. But again, do the Kraken want to sell?
Ilya Lyubushkin
A question I’ve been asking myself a lot lately: Is Tanev that much better than Lyubushkin to justify the difference in acquisition cost? I think the answer is no.
Here’s why Lyubushkin fits:
1. The Leafs know he can play the Luke Schenn role with Rielly. They saw that in the 2022 playoffs.
2. Lyubushkin checks the size/intimidation box and would give the Leafs another primary penalty killer and more net-front heaviness.
3. Lyubushkin shouldn’t cost all that much to acquire, much less than Tanev certainly.
David Savard
There’s no denying it: The Savard types — big, mean and hard to play against — excel in the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Lightning spent a first-round pick (and other stuff) to get Savard (on an expiring contract) for their run to the Cup in 2021. The Leafs had interest in the Savard-like Radko Gudas last summer. It’s easy to see Savard suiting up next to Rielly and scaring off players who dare come near the crease. He’s under contract for one more season after this one at $3.5 million on the cap.
There’s been some thought that Savard would prefer to stay in Montreal. He has no trade protection though, so if the right offer comes in, the rebuilding Habs would presumably have to take it. What’s that offer? If the Flames are eyeing a second-round pick for Tanev (or even better, a first), who’s older than Savard and unsigned beyond this season, does Montreal look for something more for Savard? That feels like too much to pay for a 33-year-old who looks to be on the decline when other similar types (i.e. Lyubushkin) could be available for a lot less. If the price is right, though …
Savard comes with some risk and maybe too high a price for the Leafs. (Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
Chris Tanev
It’s hard to see how the Leafs win the Tanev Sweepstakes if they remain unwilling to trade their first-round pick or deal a prospect like Easton Cowan. (And I don’t blame them for that stance.) Unless they can somehow acquire a second-round pick and shuttle it to Calgary, what’s the best they can offer? Tanev also comes with a lot of risk, especially if the Leafs want to extend him beyond this season.
The passable fits
Zach Bogosian
The Wild claimed Bogosian off waivers in November. They’ve gotten their money’s worth. Playing for $850,000 cap dollars this season, Bogosian has grabbed hold of a spot in Minnesota’s top four, playing huge minutes (20-plus) alongside Jonas Brodin until a recent injury. Minnesota is hot right now, so maybe this is a nonstarter. If the Wild fall out of the playoff race, though? The Leafs could conceivably give Bogosian the Schenn assignment, have him growl and guard the blue paint on the PK and play next to Rielly in limited minutes in the playoffs.
Joel Edmundson
The Leafs kind of already have an Edmundson type in Simon Benoit. Edmundson is even larger than Benoit, however, at 6-5 and 221 pounds. He’s precisely the kind of obstacle the Leafs would like to keep intruders away from the net in the playoffs. Edmundson can play both the left and right and has suited up in 75 NHL playoff games, including deep runs with the St. Louis Blues (winning the Cup in 2019) and the Montreal Canadiens (going to the Final in 2021). Edmundson’s contract, with a $1.75 million cap hit, expires after the season. The Leafs could acquire him to take over Mark Giordano’s minutes on the third pair and penalty kill. He is very much meat and potatoes so not the biggest upgrade on the blue line really, but he would be a big upgrade in the size and experience department. Is he worth spending an asset for, though?
Nick Seeler
I kinda like Seeler. He gets around well for a dude his size, at 6-2 and about 200 pounds. He’s physical. He plays with an edge. He blocks a ton of shots. And he can kill penalties. The Leafs could use all of those elements in the postseason. His contract is also easily absorbed — with a $775K cap hit. I don’t hate the fit, but don’t I love it, either. Though he’s playing more lately, Seeler is really a third-pairing guy, a 16-to-17-minute-a-night kind of player on the left side. A fifth or sixth defenceman, essentially. The Leafs already have a bunch of guys like that. Where does Seeler fit? The Leafs could certainly play him with McCabe on their No. 2 pair, but I can’t say that he’s so much better than the incumbent there, Benoit, especially with how well Benoit and McCabe have clicked. So, that likely means Seeler lands in the Giordano slot, which is fine but doesn’t solve the Leafs’ problem in the top four. One more thing I would circle: Seeler has appeared in only five NHL playoff games, way back in 2018 for Minnesota.
Sean Walker
A right shot with real moxie who can move/transport the puck and defend a bit, Walker ultimately doesn’t answer the “can he play with Rielly” question. Head coach Sheldon Keefe could connect the 29-year-old, who has appeared in just two NHL playoff games, with McCabe in second-pair duty. However, that, barring other moves, leaves Brodie on the right side in top-pair duty, which isn’t ideal. The Leafs could try to add Seeler and Walker, who play together in Philly. That would allow them to inject size/physicality (Seeler) and some puck-transportation fuel (Walker). Do the Leafs have the asset(s) for that? And is it worth paying those assets for what might ultimately be a third pair? Do the Leafs intend to sign either player to an extension? Walker, in particular, could be looking at a contract of $4 million or more annually. He’s going to be 30 in November.
This isn’t bad but is it good enough to win a Stanley Cup?
| Pairing | LD | RD |
|---|---|---|
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The Leafs also want to beef up on the back end: Walker is only 5-11 and 191 pounds.
The ‘unlikely to be available, but let’s inquire anyway’ types
Rasmus Andersson
Andersson would be a helpful solution in the short and long term for the Leafs. A top-pairing 27-year-old who’s signed for two seasons after this one with a $4.55 million cap hit. But what’s the cost for a guy like that and how do the Leafs possibly meet it? Also curious about this: Andersson’s expected goals mark when he plays without MacKenzie Weegar this season: 46 percent. (Weegar without Andersson: 56 percent.)
Mike Matheson
Matheson plays such a significant role on a mostly young defence in Montreal that the Leafs would undoubtedly have to bowl the Habs over with an offer they can’t refuse. That offer would presumably have to include someone like Matthew Knies and other goodies — a high price, probably too high really, even with Matheson under contract for two more seasons at $4.87 million. There’s also the question of fit with Matheson, a 30-year-old lefty who would overlap in some ways with Rielly. Matheson is chowing down on more than 25 minutes per game in Montreal. First pair. First penalty kill. First power play. Would he get all that with the Leafs? And if not, what effect would that have on his play, which was a bit scattershot before he got to Montreal?
Matheson would be a pricey acquisition for the Leafs. (David Kirouac / USA Today)
Jake Middleton
Another one in the make-a-call-but-don’t-hold-your-breath department. Middleton is an imposing (6-3, 219 pounds) top-pair defenceman for the Wild and his bargain contract — $2.45 million cap hit — has another year left on it. He’s a left shot who would probably need to play with either Brodie or McCabe in Toronto. It’s hard to see why Minnesota, with more than $14 million in dead cap money going to Zach Parise and Ryan Suter for one more season, would deal him.
Jamie Oleksiak
Another one of the foundational defencemen — along with Larsson, Borgen and Vince Dunn — the Kraken grabbed in expansion. Oleksiak is signed for two more seasons after this one, with a cap hit of $4.6 million. That feels a little pricey for someone who won’t help the offence, who’s 31 and who, at that size (6-7 and almost 260 pounds!), may not age gracefully. He is from Toronto!
I don’t see it but anything is possible …
Alexandre Carrier
He’s a competitive right shot and we know the Leafs have called Nashville about him. I get all that. I just can’t get away from this: Carrier is 174 pounds, one of the lightest defencemen in the league. Aren’t the Leafs looking for the opposite of that? I’m not sure who Carrier, playing on an expiring contract with a $2.5 million cap hit, would even play ahead of in the Leafs’ fully assembled top six.
Jakob Chychrun
Chychrun is a complicated case for several different reasons.
1. The Senators don’t need to trade Chychrun, who has another year left on his contract at a reasonable cap number of $4.6 million. That means if they are going to trade him, it’s going to take a monster offer presumably.
2. Chychrun doesn’t exactly fit the Leafs’ needs. He’s not some defensive guru they can deploy against top lines. He is talented though, and adding talent, especially young-ish talent (he’ll be 26 next month), is appealing. Having said that …
3. Chychrun is up for an extension on July 1. Is he, an American, prepared to sign a long-term contract to stay in Canada? And should the Leafs be the team to give him that large contract?
It all feels too thorny.
Matt Dumba
It’s not clear to me how Dumba would help the Leafs. The offence is long gone and he’s not checking the box for size or Tanev-like defence. So … ?
Erik Gudbranson
Back when he was still running the Flames in 2021, Treliving signed Gudbranson to a one-year contract in free agency. Gudbranson is just the kind of physically imposing monster Treliving likes to have around on the back end. Gudbranson just turned 32, though, and his contract is onerous — with two more years and a $4 million cap hit. He also owns a 10-team no-trade list. The Leafs could conceivably consider his teammate, Andrew Peeke. The underlying stuff is pretty rough, though, and he’s signed for two more seasons at $2.75 million on the cap.
— Stats and research courtesy of Evolving Hockey, All Three Zones, CapFriendly, Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference
(Top photo of Matthew Knies and Nick Seeler: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
