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Mapping out Canada's COVID-19 hotspots: new modelling shows where cases are rising – CTV News

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TORONTO —
A map released by the federal government Tuesday as part of new COVID-19 modelling data shows that over the last 14 days, the rise in cases has been far from even across the country, with several hotspots bumping up numbers nationwide.

Canada has been experiencing a worrying uptick in new cases recently, leading federal health officials to recommend that we re-adopt earlier, more strict levels of health precautions.

Dr. Theresa Tam stopped short of calling it a second wave on Tuesday, noting that it’s too early to tell whether cases will continue trending upwards or go back down, but cautioned that a new jump in cases could “overwhelm our health system capacity and significantly impact social and economic systems as well.”

According to the latest modelling data, the hotspots across Canada are largely centred around metropolitan areas, but also, in some instances, include regions that saw far lower case levels in the first wave of the pandemic.

WHERE ARE THE NEW CASES?

The map of recent case data shows that the three territories in Canada’s north have had zero new cases over the past two weeks, along with Labrador, northern Manitoba, and some regions of northern Quebec.

The Atlantic provinces have also fared well, with regions ranging from zero cases to four for every 100,000 people.

The darkest regions of the map, which represented areas with 50 to 99 new cases per 100,000 people, were northern Alberta, the Edmonton region, several regions around Quebec City and up the St. Lawrence River, the Gatineau region directly across the river from Ottawa, and in B.C. the region around Vancouver.

One difference from the first wave is that across the country, more cases are thought to be due to community spread, as opposed to outbreaks in long-term care facilities, which pushed numbers up earlier in the pandemic. This likely reflects the fact that Canadians have been returning to workplaces, retail spaces and larger gatherings as provinces have loosened restrictions over the last few weeks.

The map was put together with data from the COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group.

QUEBEC

In Quebec, 489 new cases were confirmed on Tuesday.

The province’s health minister, Christian Dube, announced on Tuesday that two more regions in Quebec were moving from yellow (denoting regions in Level 2 – Early Warning) to orange (Level 3 – Alert). Laval and Outaouais joined Montreal, the Quebec City region and Chaudiere-Appalaches to make five regions of Quebec in Level 3.

Regions in Level 3 have extra measures to “target specific sectors of activity and settings where the risk of transmission is deemed higher,” according to the province.

Outaouais, which has had 1,157 cases of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, is one of the regions with the highest levels of new cases in the province (50 to 99 per 100,000), according to the map released Thursday, along with the Quebec City area, Chaudiere-Appalaches, and Bas-Saint-Laurent.

Bas-Saint-Laurent has had 274 total confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic. Capitale-Nationale has had 3,153.

Dube pointed out that the new cases are not necessarily following the same path as the first wave.

“We see that regions that have been spared such as Capitale-Nationale, Chaudiere-Appalaches during the first wave are now very affected by the virus,” he said.

Quebec’s public health director Dr. Horacio Arruda said on Monday that the province had officially hit a second wave after they reported 586 new cases.

ONTARIO

Although vast swaths of Ontario are seeing barely any new cases, in the most populated regions of the province it’s a different story. The province recorded 478 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, which is the highest number for a single day since May 2, when 511 cases were reported.

Most of these new cases are in Ottawa, Peel region and Toronto, with 90, 95, and 153 new cases respectively.

ALBERTA

In the province’s capital, the COVID-19 case count reached the highest it has ever been since the start of the pandemic last week. Including the region around the city as well, the Edmonton area had 751 active cases of COVID-19 last Thursday, which was more than half of Alberta’s active cases at the time.

Within the city, the neighbourhoods with the highest active case count were Northgate with 109 cases, Northeast with 104 and Eastwood with 74.

The province as a whole reported 150 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, bringing them to more than 1,500 active cases. 

BRITISH COLUMBIA

On the map showing hotspots, it appears as though two separate regions on British Columbia’s coast are experiencing a surge, but they actually are counted together — both fall under the Vancouver Coastal Health region, and are assessed as one area.

There have been nearly 3,000 cases recorded in the Vancouver Coastal Health region, with more than 4,200 recorded in the neighbouring Fraser Health region. The new modelling showed that the Fraser Health region has had 20 to 49 new cases for every 100,000 people over the last two weeks, putting them in the second highest category on the map.

A new outbreak at Vancouver’s St. Paul’s Hospital was discovered Tuesday, according to provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.

Over the weekend, 366 cases of COVID-19 within the province were recorded, and 96 new cases were identified on Tuesday.  

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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