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Market Call Panel Top Picks: December 22, 2023 – BNN Bloomberg

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John Zechner, chairman and founder, J. Zechner Associates


MARKET OUTLOOK:

Stocks have surged since the end of October and are on pace for the strongest finish to any year since the 1990s. 

One bit of worry for the stock market is the sentiment indicators, which are almost frightening in terms of how frothy things have become as shown in the December Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. “Don’t fight the Fed” has always been a mantra for investors, so the pivot towards a more dovish outlook on interest rates should not be underestimated, particularly in this seasonally strong period for stocks. The bottom line is that this liquidity argument may take stocks higher in the short term. The economic and corporate earnings recoveries to justify those moves could come up well short of expectations next year. Also, valuations are near record levels, expectations for earnings growth in 2024 seem far too optimistic, sentiment is at extreme bullish levels and our outlook is for a sharp deceleration in economic activity over the next few quarters. 

We have the most confidence in the idea that interest rates will finish 2024 lower than where they started. That alone is enough to keep us with at least a “market weight” in bonds. Given that the 10-year in the U.S. has already rallied from almost five per cent to less than four per cent, we are reticent to go overweight on bonds but would look to do that on any move in yields back above 4.3 per cent. Our bond weight in balanced portfolios is around 37 per cent, with another six per cent in preferred shares. Regarding stocks, we have used the strength into year-end to go slightly underweight and expect to maintain that position. 

Our stock weight in balanced funds is around 45 per cent, which is at the lower quartile of our typical 40 to 60-per-cent range. While we are more bearish than consensus on the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings, we understand that the flow of liquidity into stocks could continue into the early months of 2024. The biggest areas of earnings risk are in the cyclical sectors such as industrials, consumer goods, financials and basic materials. 

Technology and consumer staples sectors usually do well in periods of falling interest rates. However, the valuations of those sectors are already at the high end of their traditional range, so we don’t see much upside from the big names but do see more opportunities in some of the mid-sized names. Precious metals should finally get a lift in 2024 as valuations are at multi-decade lows, corporate activity should pick up and weaker economic growth in the U.S. should undermine the U.S. dollar and give a further lift to gold prices. 

In terms of the energy sector, we recognize that weaker global growth will cause a fall in global demand for energy and may also make it more difficult for the OPEC+ group to maintain their production discipline. However, valuations in the Canadian producer sector are attractive even with oil in the US$70 range. Our focus in the sector is on mid-sized oil-levered producers, with double-digit free cash flow yields and “investor friendly” activity such as debt reduction, special dividends and share buybacks.

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TOP PICK:

Markets 2024 The Road Ahead: Top Picks

John Zechner, chairman and founder of J. Zechner Associates, Brianne Gardner, senior wealth manager at Velocity Investment Partners for Raymond James, and Earl Davis, head of fixed income and money markets at BMO Global Asset Management, discuss their top picks: Pembina Pipeline, Capital Power and Rogers Corporate Bonds.

Pembina Pipeline (PPL TSX)

Brianne Gardner, senior wealth manager, Velocity Investment Partners, Raymond James

MARKET OUTLOOK:

The market is pricing in almost a 70 per cent probability that rates will decrease by the first quarter of next year. We expect interest rates to start their way down somewhere between the end of the first and second quarter, as consumption stabilizes, and economic activity starts to ease.

We don’t expect a crash landing but rather a “bumpy” landing and a more volatile year ahead, which makes it favourable for active managers and stock picking becomes more crucial over buy and hold.

For 2024, we are expecting a soft landing, we are expecting macro data to ease starting in the first quarter of the year when consumption stabilizes. We expect a quick recovery of the market after that, as corporate earnings continue to be resilient. Also following looking at some seasonal patterns, this has been a third strong year in the presidential cycle, and we expect a fourth year of positive returns, not as strong as this year but in continuous growth.

Our two concerns are whether progress on inflation will stall and whether the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two per cent target will prove reasonable.

We expect the market’s narrow focus on tech mega-caps in 2023 to broaden in 2024 and see opportunity within many areas “left behind” this year.

After we see seven weeks of markets performance on the uptrend/positive, on average the next six-month forward return is four per cent and positive 67 per cent of the time and one year forward return is +10 per cent and positive 83 per cent of the time

We are watching the cash on the sidelines closely a there is still roughly $6 trillion in cash that could come flowing into the markets. The S&P ETF SPY saw its biggest inflow ever last Friday with a single day of almost $21 billion.

Also, consumer spending is slowing with over $1 trillion in debt and interest rates are extremely high will impact investors and debt versus gross domestic product (GDP) and spending which drives the economy. Ten per cent of mortgages renew in 2024 in Canada and 50 per cent in 2025!

When we see the economy in a full recession, we actually see the start of a new bull market in the stock market. That is because the economy and the stock market are separate and the stock market is forward looking. Also, we don’t know we are in a recession until we are already in one!

The presidential election cycle is also a favourable setup for stocks – as historically we do see presidents come in and over promise and the markets have a strong year in the fourth year of an election period. Returns historically were positive 83 per cent of the time during presidential election years

TOP PICK:

Capital Power (CPX TSX)

Earl Davis, Head of Fixed Income and Money Markets, BMO Global Asset Management

  • Less macro, more bottom up
  • All about yield return and credit pickup
  • Credit picking becomes more important towards the end of a business cycle
  • More comfortable extending duration to the five to 10-year sector

Range Bound Rates

  • five to 30-year yields within the broad 2023 range
  • five-year bonds: 2.77% – 4.41 (presently at 3.17)
  • 10-year bonds: 2.72% – 4.24 (presently at 3.05)
  • 30-year bonds: 2.80%  – 4.00 (presently at 2.90)

Macro

  • Fed 4.75 per cent: BoC 4.25 per cent
  • Soft landing is the base case

First Half 2024– looking for answers to the following questions:

  • When will the easing cycle start and how low will it go?
  • Where does inflation trough?
  • Do we get a recession and what type of severity?

Second Half of 2024

  • Foresee an acceleration of eases
  • Curve steepening

TOP PICK:

Rogers Corporate Bonds

 Pembina Pipeline  Y
 Capital Power  Y  N
 Rogers Corporate Bonds  N

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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