Three things to watch for to gauge the sustainability of the post-COVID recovery
Equity markets appear to be taking a breather as we move from early to mid-cycle in the post-COVID recovery, with market participants trying to figure out what that means and where we go from here. Many are wondering if we have seen peak earnings and peak growth, and if the rise of the variant will cause another shutdown.
You can see this in the muted reaction to some recent impressive quarterly earnings reports in the United States, with some high expectations already priced into share prices. And then investors hit the panic button on Monday, taking the S&P 500 and S&P TSX down to 3.5 per cent from its recent high, while the Canadian dollar has now lost all of its gains and is now flat on the year.
During these times its important to remember that markets don’t always go up and near-term volatility doesn’t necessarily imply that a looming meltdown is on the horizon. For example, did you know that we’ve counted that the S&P 500 has fallen more than two per cent eight times this year alone?
However, market corrections are quite common and can actually be quite healthy as they flush out those participants on the margin (excuse the pun) without the wherewithal to stand by their longer-term convictions. In that regard, looking ahead there are three main factors worth watching, not only as to the sustainability of this post-COVID recovery but also overreactions allowing for the opportunity to rebalance portfolios.
We continue to believe that this very much is still a central bank-driven market environment. Macro policy will weigh heavily as markets react to indications of where the Fed and other central banks are positioning. For example, markets corrected more than 15 per cent when Bernanke signalled tapering back in 2010, and some argue that the tech bubble was burst when Greenspan indicated hikes were coming in early 2000.
That said, this time around central banks are in a bit of a pickle with rising inflationary pressures offset by the need to keep debt servicing costs down for massive government fiscal programs currently being funded by printing money. In addition, we’ve read that there are a record amount of job openings, but wages aren’t high enough to entice those unemployed going off government assistance.
This is where the bond market can be a good indicator and worth keeping a close eye on, but at the same time recognizing they don’t always get it right. More recently, long-term U.S. Treasuries (20 year +) have rocketed nearly 12 per cent from their May lows, nearly recouping all of their losses this year-to-date. For those overweight bonds, especially longer-dated ones, we wonder if they’re being given a rare second chance?
Don’t kid yourself. Despite the plethora of talk around the transition to clean energy, high oil prices still have a material impact on the economic recovery in the U.S. Five of the last six recessions have been preceded by a spike in the price of crude oil, with the only exception being the recession in 2020 caused by the COVID lockdowns.
The good news is that WTI oil prices have fallen from last week’s highs of nearly $75.50, down more than 11 per cent to below $67 a barrel on Monday. This couldn’t come at a better time as main street is in the midst of struggling with supply chain shortages causing inflationary pressures in key household staples such as food, clothing and gasoline.
We received some good news out of U.S. retail sales last Friday, showing a rebound month-over-month in consumer spending, which is a primary driver of GDP growth. People are tired of being locked up and have now been given a taste of what it’s like to experience a pre-COVID world again. This also appears to be in its early stages, as U.S. households are still sitting on quite the nest egg, having accumulated trillions in excess savings during the pandemic.
Looking forward, the trillion-dollar question, therefore, is if the stupidity of those choosing not to get vaccinated is greater than many expect, resulting in the rise of the variant this fall and forcing another lockdown. We hate to position portfolios around stupidity, but it is a risk nonetheless and worth keeping a very close eye on.
In conclusion, pullbacks are signs of a healthy market and more so, given they present a great chance to reposition and rebalance portfolios. This can be a rather difficult thing to do in today’s headline-grabbing environment, but it helps to strip out the noise, have a long-term plan and deploy some form of near-term active risk-management.
Martin Pelletier, CFA, is a portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. (formerly TriVest Wealth Counsel Ltd.), a private client and institutional investment firm specializing in discretionary risk-managed portfolios, investment audit/oversight and advanced tax and estate planning.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
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