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Meloni’s first anniversary as Italy PM marred by economy, family split

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ROME, Oct 22 (Reuters) – Weak economic growth and high interest on the country’s huge debt are the main problems facing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni after her first year in power, an anniversary marked by an abrupt announcement she was leaving her long-time partner.

Meloni’s coalition, the first led by a woman in Italy’s history, was sworn in a year ago after a sweeping election victory and will soon cruise past the 14-month average postwar term life for Italian governments.

It was seen on taking power as the country’s most right-wing since wartime dictator Benito Mussolini, as Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party traces its roots to the post-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI).

Yet Meloni, 46, set about quelling foreign concerns of possible extremism, forging good ties with allies by adopting a strongly pro-Western, EU-friendly stance and pledging staunch support to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

At home she pleased her rightist grassroots through measures to defend the traditional family, protect Italy’s cultural heritage and try to stem migrant arrivals.

“We have worked tirelessly to repay the trust and to demonstrate with facts that it was possible to build a different Italy,” she said in a video message this week.

However, an economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic has ground to a halt, with gross domestic product contracting by 0.4% in the second quarter, and analysts forecast Italian growth will be among the lowest in the euro zone next year.

That makes it harder for Meloni to keep her tax-cutting promises and makes Italy’s debt, equal to 140% of national output, vulnerable to market sell-offs.

“The economy is probably the toughest subject. The government has low margins in which to operate,” said Valentina Meliciani, an economics professor at LUISS university in Rome.

Last week Meloni weathered the first of several reviews on Italy’s debt when S&P Global Ratings confirmed the country’s BBB rating with a stable outlook.

However, the prevailing view among analysts is that the rating agencies will worsen Rome’s outlook while avoiding outright downgrades.

Meloni also has personal problems to deal with. She announced on Friday she was separating from her long-time partner, TV presenter Andrea Giambruno, after he repeatedly sparked outrage for sexist comments made on and off-air.

TAX CUTS

This month the government approved a 2024 budget with around 24 billion euros ($25.3 billion) of tax cuts and increased spending, despite a public debt that is proportionally the second highest in the euro zone after Greece’s.

The budget has not impressed investors, and exacerbated a long-running rise in Italian bond spreads.

The gap between yields on Italian 10-year bonds and the German equivalent is hovering around 2 percentage points (200 basis points), far higher than for any other euro zone country.

Meliciani said Italy’s hopes of reviving its economy and cutting debt were strongly dependent on effective implementation of investment plans financed through EU post-COVID funds.

So far Rome has struggled to meet Brussels’ policy conditions and to spend the money it has received.

On the international front, as well as her backing for Ukraine Meloni has largely avoided confrontation with Brussels despite her eurosceptic past.

She has also dropped the calls she used to make in opposition for a naval blockade to prevent boats leaving north Africa, despite her inability to halt the influx of migrants.

Arrivals on Italy’s coasts have surged to more than 140,000 so far in 2023, nearly double the same period last year.

“We expected Italy to be very tough (on immigration) at the EU level but we have seen a conciliatory attitude overall, they are working to find a common line,” said Enzo Moavero Milanesi, a former foreign affairs minister.

COMMANDING POSITION

At home Meloni has so far avoided the domestic political chaos that dogged so many of her predecessors.

A divided opposition has helped her tighten her grip on power and keep her party at the top of the polls, with nearly 30% of voter support, against around 18.5% for the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and 17% for the maverick 5-Star Movement.

Her party dominates its coalition allies, the League and Forza Italia, whose combined score remains below 20%.

Analysts believe a slice of centre-right voters switched to Meloni from the other two parties and are unlikely to shake the balance of power within the coalition by changing back again.

“Meloni came after a decade of political instability and voters floating across the party spectrum. The country looks now tired of this,” said historian and politics expert Giovanni Orsina.
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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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