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Metro Vancouver investment deals could top $13 billion this year

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This year’s rapid rise in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate slammed the brakes on investment activity in the second half of the year, but better times await in 2023.

Quarterly deal volume reached an all-time high of $21 billion in the first quarter of this year, according to a report JLL released Nov. 28. But it has fallen steadily since, dropping to just $11.2 billion in the third quarter. Deal activity is on track to fall by half in the final quarter of the year.

CBRE Ltd, is calling for $56.1 billion in transactions this year, down about 5 per cent from last year’s peak of $59.1 billion. Vancouver – the epicentre of investment activity in B.C. – will see about $13 billion worth of transactions.

During a lending and investment market update on November 28, Peter Senst, president of the firm’s national investment team, was optimistic on the outlook.

“We’re still trading with reasonable velocity. The size and significance of the deals that we’re doing in Canada, particularly in the second half of the year, will be the biggest in the world,” Senst said during the online presentation.

With inflation easing, he believes rate hikes are nearing an end.

“We’re thrilled with where inflation has seemingly hit a peak and is starting to come down,” he said.

“I believe we’re through the rate hikes, substantially,” he said. “Cost of financing we think will ultimately moderate through 2023 going into 2024, which is great.”

This will give investors the confidence to begin investing here once again, with industrial on track to benefit the most.

Deal activity will be led by industrial, which has knocked commercial assets – office and retail – out of the top spot as institutional investors and lenders rejig their exposure.

“This reflects the reweighting that’s going on in balance sheets and portfolios,” Senst said.

Vancouver is particularly well placed, with development constraints and low vacancies pushing rents to $20.67 a square foot. Growth is set to continue as companies seek space in an extremely competitive and constrained market.

“It’s not going to be an overbuilt market,” he said.

The optimism reinforces the findings of the recent Emerging Trends in Real Estate report, produced annually by the Urban Land Institute in partnership with accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC.

“While some interviewees said that they were watching for signs of a slowdown in Vancouver’s industrial market and the impacts of rising interest rates, others emphasized that land scarcity makes this asset class a best bet,” the report stated.

It gives top marks to Vancouver, which leads the country in almost every measure except with respect to capital availability and the number of opportunities for development.

“Vancouver continues to be the top market to watch for both its investment and development prospects,” the report stated.

On the office side, the significance of the tech sector – a proxy for the city’s attractive lifestyle – was a key factor in its favour.

“Among the factors buoying the office market are a vibrant technology sector as well as a higher propensity for employees to return to the workplace in Vancouver and other cities in Western Canada,” the report stated.

While the current office development cycle is over as lenders hit pause on financing new projects, CBRE noted that Vancouver is well-positioned to navigate the challenges thanks to a market whose inventory of space is balanced between downtown and suburban locations.

This makes it easier for workers to meet in person, and also helps shorten commute times, which CBRE described as “the last compelling reason why people are not returning to the office.”

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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